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Growth (45)

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3Q Earnings Worst Since 2009

This U.S. earnings season is on track to be the worst since 2009 as profits from oil & gas and commodity-related companies plummet leaving many to wonder, is the worst behind us or is there more to come?  Is China's growth story over or taking a 'rest'?  We've lived on ghost cities creating demand for so many years; where is the next growth story?

So far, about three-quarters of the S&P 500 have reported results, with profits down 3.1 percent on a share-weighted basis, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. This would be the biggest quarterly drop in earnings since the third quarter 2009, and the second straight quarter of profit declines. Earnings growth turned negative for the first time in six years in the second quarter this year.

The damage is the biggest in commodity-related industries, with the energy sector showing a 54 percent drop in quarterly earnings per share so far in…

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Cash Flow Out Of Emerging Markets

Worldwide money flows are of interest to a long term investor and the flight out of emerging markets has been striking.  Weren't emerging markets supposed to where our expansion was to take place?  What now?

According to the IIF, the volatile market conditions have taken a toll on capital flows to emerging markets, with net non-resident portfolio flows in August falling into negative territory for the first time in 2015, according to the Institute of International Finance’s latest EM Portfolio Flows Tracker. Outflows were estimated at $4.5 billion in August compared to inflows of $6.7 billion in July.

“Portfolio flows to emerging markets have retreated sharply in the last few weeks,” said Charles Collyns, chief…

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The New Face Of Competition For Profits

The world’s biggest corporations have been riding a three-decade wave of profit growth, market expansion, and declining costs. Yet this unprecedented run may be coming to an end. Our new McKinsey Global Institute report, Playing to win: The new global competition for corporate profits, projects that the global corporate-profit pool, which currently stands at almost 10 percent of world GDP, could shrink to less than 8 percent by 2025—undoing in a single decade nearly all of the corporate gains achieved relative to the world economy during the past 30 years (exhibit).

Exhibit

From 1980 to 2013, vast markets opened around the world…

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Money Surges To Europe; Growth To Follow

If you ignore the ongoing Greek sideshow, rarely has European money growth been as accommodative as it is today. Europe has enormous structural problems of too much debt, an inflexible currency and an ageing population, but cyclical factors are very positive. Leading indicators are also positive, and the problems in Greece practically guarantee that the ECB will remain extremely accommodative even though Germany will require some tapering of QE.  Barring major contagion from Greece, any equity weakness in Europe will represent a buying opportunity.  Real M1 in Europe is growing at 11%, and the collapse in the price of oil means that excess liquidity is surging now and is as high as it was in 2009 and higher than it was in 2004-05.

While investors are worried about the fallout from Greece on the European banking system, we offer the…

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Was Prior Growth An Anomaly

Over the past 50 years, the global economy expanded sixfold as the world’s population and per capita income each grew at unprecedented speed. The global population more than doubled while average per capita income almost tripled to about $13,000 at 2012 purchasing power parity. However, there are significant doubts that this growth bonanza will continue in the long term given that the demographic tailwinds of the past half century are now waning.  Hundreds of millions of people were lifted out of poverty.  Yet without significantly boosting the one engine the world economy still has—productivity growth—this period may prove to be a historic anomaly. 

Unless we can dramatically improve productivity, the next half century will look very different. The rapid expansion of…

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Investing In The Drone Space

Last week it was amazing to witness entire expressways shut down during the Hong Kong protests.  Something which was not surprisingly given little attention by our "keep the advertisers happy at all costs" mainstream media.  *cough cough*  Thank goodness for technology with this amazing drone footage and social media for 'getting it out there'.  Afterwards I decided to take a further look into the area of investing in drone (and drone component) manufacturers.

I've thrown this together, running on battery only and no internet after having lost power due to a strong storm rolling through the region.  Hey, it's a start, right?

Face it America.  It’s only a matter of time before drone applications become commonplace and drones are buzzing past our homes like…

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Global Growth Is Slowing Down

IT HAS been a consistent theme of this blog in recent months that global growth has been slowing, a fact some investors may have missed in the good news about American GDP. The latest confirmation came from the World Trade Organisation, which cut its forecast for trade growth this year from 4.6% to 3.1% and for 2015 from 5.3% to 4%. The WTO doesn't forecast economic growth directly; it takes its lead from other international organisations (Rabo Bank reckons the IMF is set to reduce its growth forecast in the next few weeks).

What is interesting from…

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Admin

UPS To Expand 3D Printing In Stores

The 3D industry has reported grown by 21% last year alone and according to the 2014 Wholers Report, the worldwide 3D printing industry is now expected to grow from $3.07 billion in revenue in 2013 to $12.8 billion by 2018, and exceed $21 billion in worldwide revenue by 2020.

After testing 3D printing in it's San Diego stores, UPS has decided to expand it's partnership with SSYS to 100 stores nationwide.  California, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, and Texas are just some of the states set to open stores with 3D-printing capabilities.

3D Systems (DDD) and Stratasys (SSYS) may be the largest 3D printing companies around, but together they only represented about one-third of worldwide 3D printing revenues in…

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The Bond Markets Pessimism Is Vindicated

I've been a close observer of the bond market for over 25 years, and it continues to amaze me with its ability to see the future of inflation and real economic growth. 
I've been featuring the above chart for a long time, using it to argue that the market was quite pessimistic about the prospects for economic growth. My theory is that real interest rates ought to track the market's expectations for real growth, and indeed they have. Real growth and growth expectations were very strong in the late 1990s, and real yields on TIPS were very high. Since then, the economy has slowed down and real yields have fallen. 5-yr real yields on TIPS have…

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Admin

Amazon Growth

Jeff Bezos knows; continue to innovate, acquire and turn out new products.....or die.  Investors have rewarded the stock accordingly.  AAPL had the same growth and innovation.  When investors began to doubt, they rang the register until Tim Cook was able to convince them that all was well.  Great job Bezos - keep it up; or else. (click chart to enlarge)

Courtesy of Twitter

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(edited 1:18pm to add U.S. projections)

Germans have now achieved goals, which coal industry skeptics have been claiming for the last 40 years could not be achieved even by 2050 and is is rapidly becoming a model country for transitions to renewable and sustainable energy proving that "yes, a transition to a renewable energy economy can be done, and it can be down with continuous improvement to existing technology.

Germans have a special word for it -"'Energiewende', or energy transformation - which aims to power the entire country by renewable resources by 2050." Germans are now laying down a challenge for other countries saying there is no longer any excuse for countries to say this is impossible.

June 6, 2014 was a record breaking day for the solar power industry in Germany when the country broke through the…

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Admin

Small Robots Building Large Structures

As highlighted here previously, China is clearly not the only country exploring the wonderful world of 3D printing and it's application to housing.  Sadly the loser will be the average construction worker.

The Institute for Advanced Architecture of Catalonia in Barcelona is working on a set of robots that will soon be able to build complex structures by extruding layers of concrete, a process that might be a bit slow but that will…

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Admin

Solar Shingles; An Idea To Catch On

Like anything else, it will take more widespread usage and increased competition for pricing to drop, but I would install these in a heartbeat if/when the cost became more reasonable.  idk about anyone else but my utility bill is ridiculous at this point.

Dawn Kurry of Biz Journals writes Solar shingles system comes online in Cary North Carolina. Don Hyatt is the first person in the research triangle, and maybe in the whole state, to install the new DOW solar shingles on his home.

Don Hyatt says people have been stopping by his house to admire the shiny new roof.
"I've been waiting for them to become available in North Carolina," Hyatt says. "It's not like solar…

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Admin

World Bank Cuts Outlook But There's Always A 'But'

Here we go again but should anyone be surprised?  This is one of those days when people will come out and say "the market is not the economy" yet we all know job growth remains tepid at best and with that, one has to ask "where will the growth come from?"  See the ginormous infographic below.

World Bank has lowered its forecasts for developing countries, now eyeing growth at 4.8 percent this year, down from its January estimate of 5.3 percent. Signs point to strengthening in 2015 and 2016 to 5.4 and 5.5 percent, respectively. China is expected to grow by 7.6 percent this year, but this will depend on the success of rebalancing efforts. If a hard landing occurs, the reverberations across Asia would be widely felt.

There's always a BUT

Yet …

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Admin

Small Business Growth And Outsourcing

We tend to think of outsourcing as being overseas call centers and phone assembly in China however that's not necessarily the case anymore; especially when it comes to small business.  One has to wonder just how much small businesses think of outsourcing as a business advantage or requirement in order to grow.  This cute slideshare laid it out in simple, easy to understand terms and got my mind to thinking...........

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Admin

At its E3 press conference, Sony just announced that the PlayStation TV game console (known as the PlayStation Vita TV abroad) is coming to the United States and Canada this fall.

The PlayStation TV will come by itself for $99 (you’ll have to bring your own controller) or in a $139 bundle that comes with a DualShock Controller, a memory card to store downloaded games on, and a copy of the Lego Movie video game.

The console will be compatible with many of the games currently available on the PlayStation Vita, Sony’s portable game console. Those will be for available for download on the PlayStation store.

PlayStation TV owners will also be able to log in to…

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Admin

Funday Monday Reads June 2nd

  • Better than expected China PMI over the weekend and ECB meeting on Thursday with LTRO announcement being anticipated and a (speculative) rate cut to help boost their economy.
  • $GOOG is planning on extending its customer base by offering internet usage to the un-wired regions of the world via satellite and boost revenue as well as earnings. The new project's estimated price ranges from $1B-$3B, and will start with 180 small, high-capacity satellites orbiting Earth at low altitude.  180 "low altitude"?  Just how many are up there anyway?  lol
  • Cost-cutting in a digital age to continue.  Imagine the possibilities.  For example one bank digitized it's mortgage-application and decision process, cutting the cost per new mortgage by 70% and slashing time to preliminary approval from several days to just one minute. A telecom created a self-serve, prepaid service where customers could order and activate phones without back-office involvement.…

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Admin

Hedge Funds Storm Into Venture Capital

For those concerned about a bubble in startup land, the number of VC-backed companies attracting valuations north of $1 billion increased sharply this year.  “This clearly is shaping up to be the best year for IPOs in a decade,” said Steve Case, the former head of AOL and now head of his own private investment firm, Revolution.  IPOs are at the core of U.S. and global economic growth and job creation.  A sustainable IPO market requires valuations based on fundamental performance over the long-term. Today’s markets are focused instead on short-…

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