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Opinion (150)

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Why Most People Fail At Trading

One item I completely agree with is the pundits and "know it alls" on entertainment news television.  They're there to entertain you; not make you rich.  I get my economic releases on them and *off* they go the rest of the day.  I trust my charts; charts don't lie.  People do.

Courtesy of Martinkronicle

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Admin

When Stocks Are On Sale

This caught my eye as I tend to look at stocks when they near a significant, long-term support such as a 100 month or 200 month EMA or SMA.  Of course I'm buying with a long term perspective in this approach but it got me wondering: Is is better to hold your breath and simply buy stocks when they've sold off 20%? The downside still terrifies me but looking at historical returns is intriguing.   From Awelathofcommonsense:

Large cap U.S. equities continue to hold up well with the S&P 500 down roughly 12% from its all-time highs reached last spring. To some degree, this performance has masked the global bear market going on in the rest of the world. Take a look at this list of country ETFs from Bespoke Investment…

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Admin

What Might Happen In China In 2016

In debates about whether growth is a percentage point up or down, we too often lose sight of the absolute scale of China’s economy. No matter what rate the country grows at in 2016, its share of the global economy, and of many specific sectors, will be larger than ever. My snapshot of China in 2016? An increasingly diverse, volatile, $11 trillion economy whose performance is becoming more and more difficult to describe as one dimensional.

The reality is that China’s economy is today made up of multiple subeconomies, each more than a trillion dollars in size. Some are booming, some declining. Some are globally competitive, others fit for the scrap heap. How you feel about China depends more than ever on the parts of the economy where you compete. In 2015, selling kit to movie theaters has been great business, selling kit to steel mills less so. In your China, are you dealing with a tiger or a tortoise? Your performance in 2016 will depend on knowing the…

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Admin

Byron Wiens Top 10 Surprises For 2016

Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman of Multi-Asset Investing at Blackstone, today issued his list of Ten Surprises for 2016. This is the 31st year Byron has given his views on a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.

Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Byron joined Blackstone in September 2009 as a senior advisor to both the firm and its clients in analyzing economic,…

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Admin

End Of Year Liquidation Time For Hedge Funds In Peril

As Bloomberg warned in early December as BlueCrest Capital Management stated it would no longer oversee money for outsiders, one thing founder Michael Platt didn’t mention was that clients had already pulled billions of dollars this year............and now Jim Cramer has joined the club.  It's been a rough environment for hedge funds and end of year is do or die.  Winners few and far between it seems and they want their money now.

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Admin

How Markets Are Manipulated

There once was a series of interviews with Jim Cramer, as you'll see here where he talks about his days as a Hedge Fund Manager, and they were a wonder to behold.  It seems many have been 'scrubbed' from the web (nice job Jim) but I came across this one and it'll give you a glimpse into the games that are played behind the scenes.  CNBC and its cohorts are entertainment and easily swayed.  Get your economic data and hit the 'mute' button.  Opinions are swayed by the opinions’ of others but it doesn't make them fact.  Learn this early.

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Admin

Negative Growth. Thank You Deflation And QE

Investors may wade into unknown territory next month as the Federal Reserve readies the first rate hike in nearly a decade amid a corporate earnings recession.

S&P 500 earnings are on track to close their first reporting season of negative growth since the Great Recession and estimates call for sub-zero growth in the current quarter as well.

Even if the trend reverses next year, as expected, a Fed rate hike in December could mark an unprecedented conflict between a tightening cycle starting at the same time as earnings fall into recession.

"We can't think of any instances when the Fed was hiking during an (earnings) recession," said Joseph Zidle, portfolio strategist at Richard Bernstein Advisors in New…

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Admin

A Tech Bubble, An 'Everything' Bubble Or None At All

One Thursday morning in early June, the ballroom of the Rosewood Sand Hill hotel, in Menlo Park, was closed for a private presentation. The grand banquet hall appeared worthy of the sprawling resort’s five-star designation: ornate chandeliers hung from the ceiling; silk panels with a silver stenciled design covered the walls. Behind a stage in the 2,800-square-foot room, a large sign bore the name of Andreessen Horowitz, one of Silicon Valley’s most revered venture-capital firms.

As breakfast and coffee were offered, the company’s partners mingled with the men and women who endow their $1.5 billion fund. The investors were dressed…

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Admin

Chinas Desperate Attempts To Stabilize

Most of the time, weekly data published by the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation (CSDC) is as dull as the organization’s name would suggest. But of some interest this year has been the weekly number of people opening trading accounts that allow them to buy and sell stocks.

Earlier, Quartz reported that a record 3.3 million individuals had rushed to join China’s stock market in the single week ending April 17. That was far above this year’s previous average weekly sign-up rate of 800,000.

After that week the market continued to grow until June 11, when it began a dramatic, prolonged crash…

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Admin

(Edited 2:00pm)  I especially enjoy the part when the commentator withdrew his request for an interview after Schiff refused to blame everything on China.  Yes, MSM wants us to believe it's all China's fault.  Don't drink the koolaid.  Use your head.

Hat tip Ed

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Admin

And They Crawl Out Of The Woodwork

You know it's coming and it won't be any easier to take than when you were small and your Mother said "I told you so".  The blogisphere will now erupt with the force of an annoying snaggle tooth emphatically screaming "I warned you" and "I said it was coming.........now buy my plan so you're prepared"  and ca-ching, you cough up the coin like a kid at the carnival freak show.   Every smidiot and hack will now attack your inbox on how they could have prevented your losses and how (via in their premier plan) you would have benefited this week.......if you had only listened.

Puhlease

Markets correct.  On occasion, they correct…

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Admin

MLPs as Interest Rates Rise

I've long wondered about MLP's as interest rates begin to creep higher and crude oil, obviously, remains low.  After all, they're supposedly not tied to the price of crude oil, right?  Certainly 2015 has not been their "year" as the 10 year fluctuated, leaving me even more cautious but did this translate into a buying opportunity?  Consider this interesting piece here by TheReformedBroker

I’m sitting at the Strip House with a wholesaler from a large mutual fund / UIT sponsor two years ago. He’s a good guy but he’s there to sell. I’m there to eat…

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Admin

Doubts Begin Chipping Away At The Stock Market

In the stock market, until recently, just about any news was good news.

Company earnings stumbled? Investors shrugged them off, sending shares higher. Economic growth was disappointing? So what.

But now that is changing.

Consider the recent trading in Apple, the world’s most valuable public company and a certifiable stock market darling. Apple announced…

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Admin

While main stream media does their level best to keep us hugging our equities, they seem to ignore the fact that quantitative easing ran the market up from 2009 and while the economy has come a long way since the bottom, maybe, just maybe, it's strong enough to sustain us, but not equities at elevated levels.

Federal Reserve officials have signaled they think the economy is robust enough to withstand a round of interest-rate rises starting this year. But the bond market still seems skeptical.

While yields on short-term Treasury notes have started moving higher in anticipation of an interest-rate increase as early as September, yields on longer-term debt have remained stubbornly low. That is a sign that many investors are still doubtful about the health of the economy, and the ability of the Fed to keep raising rates without jeopardizing growth.

On Tuesday, yields on short-term U.S. Treasury notes rose…

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Admin

Pay For Performance Not What You Expected

I don’t begrudge the $15.3 million annual salary that Texas Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus is knocking down this year, or even the $24 million that Rangers first baseman Prince Fielder will pocket.

The same goes for the $75 million that actor Robert Downey Jr. pocketed last year — more power to these gentlemen.

Indeed, all of them possess exceptional talents, and their agents negotiated the best money deals possible for them. These deals were struck in arm’s length transactions with rational, willing buyers of their talents — a professional baseball team and movie studio in these instances.

So big payouts such as those are fine by me. I don’t care.

But the same cannot be said for the exorbitant pay packages of corporate chief executive officers, which I find distasteful…

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Admin

What The Government Data Breach Means For You

One in 14 Americans may have just lost tons of their personal information — everything from their Social Security Number and birthdates to notes on their finances, relationships and even sexual proclivities — to hackers in a massive cyber breach, a federal agency said Thursday.

Hackers have made off with confidential data belonging to 22 million people who work, formerly worked or have applied to work for the federal government, costing a top agency official her job and exposing troves of sensitive data stored by the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which serves as a…

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Admin

Money Surges To Europe; Growth To Follow

If you ignore the ongoing Greek sideshow, rarely has European money growth been as accommodative as it is today. Europe has enormous structural problems of too much debt, an inflexible currency and an ageing population, but cyclical factors are very positive. Leading indicators are also positive, and the problems in Greece practically guarantee that the ECB will remain extremely accommodative even though Germany will require some tapering of QE.  Barring major contagion from Greece, any equity weakness in Europe will represent a buying opportunity.  Real M1 in Europe is growing at 11%, and the collapse in the price of oil means that excess liquidity is surging now and is as high as it was in 2009 and higher than it was in 2004-05.

While investors are worried about the fallout from Greece on the European banking system, we offer the…

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Admin

China, Their Market, Demand For Our Products, Etc.

China’s market downfall has been dramatic and painful for the investors involved. But so far there has been little immediate impact on the rest of the world, because China tightly limits foreign investment in mainland stocks.

China’s stock markets are, for the most part, a mom and pop affair—about 80% of the trading that happens in Shanghai and Shenzhen is done by Chinese individuals. They represent at most 14% of the total Chinese population.

But there’s little doubt the effects of this downturn will be felt globally—it just may take some time. After all, Chinese investors have lost more about $3.4 trillion in equity value from the markets mid-June peak until the July 7 close:

And although the government is…

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