What We're Reading

According to the latest research from Strategy Analytics, global smartwatch shipments reached 8.1 million units in Q4 2015, compared with 7.9 million Swiss Watch shipments. It is the first time ever that smartwatches have outshipped Swiss watches on a global basis.

Cliff Raskind, Director at Strategy Analytics, said, “We estimate global smartwatch shipments reached 8.1 million units in Q4 2015, rising a healthy 316 percent from 1.9 million in Q4 2014. Smartwatches are growing rapidly in North America, Western Europe and Asia. Apple Watch captured an impressive 63 percent share of the global smartwatch market in Q4 2015, followed by Samsung with 16 percent. Apple and Samsung together account for a commanding 8 in 10 of all smartwatches shipped worldwide.”

Steven Waltzer, Analyst at Strategy Analytics, added, “We estimate global Swiss watch shipments reached 7.9 million units in Q4 2015, falling 5 percent from 8.3 million in Q4 2014.  Global demand for Swiss watches is slowing down, an

The recent Volkswagen scandal had me wondering about past auto manufacturer scandals and how their prices (individual or sector wide) were affected.  Here's a piece by ProPublica which brought back memories.  Especially the Pinto issue, which affected me as I learned to drive stick in a Pinto in the 1970s.  Boy, the mind reels!

The recent revelation that Volkswagen used software to make its diesel engines appear to be polluting less than they are is just one of a long list of scandals that have plagued the auto industry. Here is a selection of some of the best reporting on the subject.

Pinto Madness

Mother Jones, 1977

The Ford Pinto was rushed into production in the early 1970s despite the company knowing that the gas tank could explode in a rear-end collision. Ford decided to do nothing about it because a cost-benefit analysis showed that it was cheaper to pay legal costs for an expected number of future victims than to fix the cars.

Air Bag Flaw, Long Known to Honda and Takata, Led

Great news for LVS, MGM, WYNN, FLL, CZR and BYD.  High speed rail is on the way.  Imagine the increase in revenues long term as patrons will be able to get there, in the blink of an eye.

China Railway International USA CO., LTD. and XpressWest have agreed to form a joint venture that will accelerate the launch of the XpressWest rail project connecting Las Vegas, Nevada to Los Angeles, California (the “Southwest Rail Network”). The Project will develop, finance, build and operate the Southwest Rail Network, with stations in Las Vegas, Nevada, Victorville, California, and Palmdale, California, and service throughout Los Angeles. The decision to form a joint venture is the culmination of years of work and builds upon the significant accomplishments of XpressWest.

Supported by $100 Million in initial capital, this new high-speed rail line (approximately 370 km(s) in length) will create new technology, manufacturing, and construction jobs throughout the interstate corridor and will connect

There are a lot of things the world does better than the US: Literacy, life expectancy, general happiness, and, of course, soccer. You can now add Netflix to that list.

On Monday (Sept. 14), the US streaming television service updated (and redesigned) its monthly speed index website, where it ranks Netflix speeds by internet provider. Given that the company has expanded into over 50 countries, with plans for hundreds more, the index now ranks Netflix speeds by country as well.

The US and Canada, where Netflix accounts for a whopping 37% of peak web traffic, are both in the middle of the pack when it comes to Netflix speeds. Scandinavian countries dominate the rankings, which shouldn’t be too surprising, as those same countries generally boast some of the fastest internet speeds in the world (pdf).

The index measures how well Netflix performs during prime viewing hours. Essentially, the higher the ranking, the better the Netflix viewing experience is in that country. Viewers in count

Today’s factories are highly automated and use amazing robotic machines to do the work of thousands of men. These factory machines don’t look like the robots in the movies. They are a very specialized breed called CNCs, which stands for Computer Numerical Control machines. These sophisticated machine tools are operated by computer programs.

But these aren’t new toys, by any means. CNCs have been around since the early 1970s when computer-controlled systems were introduced.

The first modern-day industrial robot, the Unimate, was put into use by General Motors in 1961. The Unimate was a 4,000-pound robotic arm that attached to a giant steel drum and did things like pour liquid metal into die casts, weld auto bodies, and lift 500-pound car bodies.

The Unimate performed tasks that humans often found dangerous or boring, and did them with speed and exacting detail. The robot never called in sick, asked for a raise, or went on strike. Plus, it worked 24 hours a day. As you can imagine, robo

China’s moves to spur its slowing economy and restore investor confidence are having an important but less obvious effect on the tech sector: Strengthening Chinese companies that already were making life difficult for U.S. rivals, many of whom have staked their growth plans on the world’s second-largest market.

The government’s surprise decision in early August to devalue China’s currency, in particular, could make it harder for U.S. companies to sell into the country by making their products more expensive to local buyers.

At the same time, a cheaper yuan makes Chinese-produced goods less costly abroad—dovetailing with government policies that have been promoting foreign sales by Chinese technology vendors.

“We see the key driver [of government action] being exports,” said Handel Jones, a consultant at International Business Strategies Inc. who has written books on China’s high-tech sector. Chinese companies “will become more aggressive.”

Once known mainly for its low-cost manufacturi

I've long wondered about MLP's as interest rates begin to creep higher and crude oil, obviously, remains low.  After all, they're supposedly not tied to the price of crude oil, right?  Certainly 2015 has not been their "year" as the 10 year fluctuated, leaving me even more cautious but did this translate into a buying opportunity?  Consider this interesting piece here by TheReformedBroker

I’m sitting at the Strip House with a wholesaler from a large mutual fund / UIT sponsor two years ago. He’s a good guy but he’s there to sell. I’m there to eat thick-cut slab bacon and shrimp cocktail. I told him in advance that I’m not a buyer, but I have an open mind.

He’s showing me an SMA (separately managed account) strategy whereby his firm’s team of experts picks the best MLPs. The pitch is that MLPs are a way to participate in the growth of energy infrastructure but without having exposure to the volatility of oil prices. MLPs, he explains, are uncorrelated to the price of oil because they a

As Americans spend more money on doing things, not buying things, department stores are losing out.

A rebound in overall spending at retailers, which grew 0.6 percent in July from the previous month, has eluded department stores, where sales dropped 0.8 percent.

Department stores made up one of just two categories tracked by the Commerce Department where spending declined, the latest in a choppy performance from them this year. Spending at electronics and appliance stores also fell 1.2 percent in July.

Data released by the Commerce Department shows that American consumers are putting what little extra money they do have to spend each month into eating out, upgrading their cars or fixing up their homes, as well as spending on sports gear, health and beauty. Spending at restaurants and bars has jumped more than 9 percent this year through July compared with the same period last year, and on autos by more than 7 percent, according to the agency.

Analysts say a wider shift is afoot

In my typical day I read 20+ articles pertaining to the the stock market and investing.  Only occasionally posting one here which stands out in my mind but one yesterday at Sober Look caught my eye.  It's author begins right off the bat with "The United States is not building enough homes to meet the nation's housing demand." and I almost spit out my tea.  Not building enough homes when you compare the aging ones being thrown out versus the new ones being constructed or are we looking at what a consumer can afford to buy?  He is clearly in the camp that we should crank out more housing which would cause prices to drop at some point and suddenly "Joe the Plumber" will move out of his apartment an into a new home.  I simply don't buy that scenario.

Anyone with even a little information on the market knows that the middle class has been hallowed out (and may continue) and guess what?  Those lost jobs, whether lost to technological advances or shipped overseas, are NOT coming back.  Perio

When I came across this list of the top 10 Federal contractors, not only were they all defense contractors, it also gave a eyes-glance breakdown of what the U.S. purchases from each.  Nice if you're an investor.  I find it interesting that the F35 has been in production for 14+ years.  Seriously?  By the time we get one that works, it'll be time to fund development of a new one.  From Nationalpriorities:

10. Huntington Ingalls Industries, $4.7 billion.

Huntington Ingalls describes itself as “America’s largest military shipbuilding company.”

9. BAE Systems, $5.0 billion.

BAE Systems traffics in “defence, aerospace and security solutions” (and yes, they are a British company with significant operations in the U.S.), with products ranging from amphibious combat vehicles to “hyper velocity projectiles.”

8.  L-3 Communications Holdings, $5.8 billion.

L-3 bills itself as a “prime contractor in aerospace and national security solutions.”  Its products include explosive detection systems and h

Have you noticed in the last several years that there are an increasingly large number of restaurant related stocks out there?  It seems that every week there is an IPO of some new hot concept stock.  The reason for this influx of restaurant stocks is because Americans are increasingly choosing to eat their meals out rather than cook at home.  Today’s Retail Sales report for the month of April was a perfect case in point.  

While overall sales were unchanged, sales at Bars and Restaurants increased 0.7%, while sales at Food and Beverage Stores declined 0.13% in what has been a continuation of a trend that has been in place for the last several years.

The chart shows the historical share of total sales that both Bars and Restaurants and Food and Beverage Stores have accounted for.  Over time, the two sectors have accounted for around one quarter of total retail sales, but as the chart below illustrates the breakdown in each sector’s share has changed dramatically.  In 1993, Bars and Res

There’s been plenty of chatter about what consumers want from wearables and what they’ll use them for, such as mobile payments and health and fitness tracking. Based on recent research, wearable devices are also set to change the business world.

In a March 2015 study by Salesforce.com, nearly eight in 10 US enterprise wearable adopters agreed that wearables would reshape their companies’ future success. More than three-quarters of users had already seen improvement in their business performance due to wearables, and 86% of adopters intended to increase spending over the next 12 months.

Enterprises were most interested in using wearables to track workplace productivity, but beyond that, improving the customer experience thanks to real-time access to customer data, business analytics and alerts, and customer instruction and coaching were all top use cases.

Salesforce noted that professionals viewed wearables devices as a huge opportunity for data collection—but they’re a long way off fr

The jury's still out on Apples new watch launch, especially it's longer term demand and shortages due to two suppliers have already shown.  I thought though (thanks to SeekingAlpha) we could take a look at it's current suppliers:

• iPhone/iPad combo chip supplier Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) is providing a Wi-Fi/Bluetooth/NFC/FM radio combo chip for the Apple Watch (NASDAQ:AAPL), according to an ABI Research teardown of the Watch's S1 chip module. As expected, NXP supplies a complementary NFC controller.
• The teardown also uncovered a 6-axis STMicroelectronics (NYSE:STM) motion sensor (accelerometer/gyproscope). There has been some debate about whether InvenSense (NYSE:INVN) will be a motion sensor supplier for the Watch, as it is for the iPhone 6.
• Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI) supplies a touch controller IC. Barclays reported in March ADI had scored multiple design wins to enable Apple's Force Touch pressure-based response feature (supported by the Watch) on future iPhones/iPads.
• IDT (NASDAQ:ID

More Americans who do not currently own a home say they do not think they will buy a home in "the foreseeable future," 41%, vs. 31% two years ago. Non-homeowners' expectations of buying a house in the next year or five years have stayed essentially the same, suggesting little change in the short-term housing market. As a result, what may have been a longer-term goal for many may now not be a goal at all, and this could have an effect on the longer-term housing market.

One of the long-running facets of the "American Dream" has been the ability to buy a house. Yet seven years after the housing market crashed in 2007-2008, it appears that a renewal of zeal for home buying may not yet be evident in the United States. Two years ago, Gallup asked those who did not own a home in the U.S. whether they thought they would buy a house in various time periods in the future. The current Gallup poll shows little movement in Americans' opinions since 2013, except in the sentiment that those who do n

In December I pointed out cyber security firm Vasco Cyber Security VDSI and scratched my head as it certainly seemed to these eyes seems one that is pumped up in a scramble for yield and then plummet as markets experienced mean reversion after 2000  and 2007.  As we all know from experience, parabolic moves, very often correct violently.  On a 10 year monthly chart, VDSI certainly seemed parabolic.

They target banks and financial services customers.  After JPM, Visa and Mastercard were all hacked the last few years, is there trouble in paradise?  Did this laggard deserve the run up?

Historically it generally traded very thin, under 100k shares per day but suddenly in 2014, volume ramped up and traders were piling in.  Was a laggard being pumped?  "Who doesn't love cyber security?  Let's buy them all." but are all cyber security firms alike?  Shares of rivals FTNT, PANW and PFPT have performed better while FEYE has lagged while CUDA has seen recent weakness.  Why the sudden interest i

For the love of Pete.  I can only imagine what's going through the minds of investors.  First fears of energy name defaults and now China's real estate (bubble) may have it's first big default?  It'll be a fun Sunday night when futures open. 

The Chinese real-estate developer Kaisa Group Holdings had a healthy balance sheet, according to investors and observers alike. It was the top-rated residential-property-sales firm in the city of Shenzhen, in the first half of 2014. It was known for fast, reliable work.

But on Thursday, Kaisa appeared to become the first Chinese development firm to default on offshore debt, missing a $128 million interest payment on $500 million of debt to foreign investors. Representatives of the company say they aren't sure whether the payment was made, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Consider this a slap in the face to investors chasing yield around the world and finding it (or so they think) in emerging-market junk bonds. Back in 2013, Kaisa and its fellow C

Dick Evans, chairman and CEO of San Antonio based Cullen Front Bank (CFR) made the rounds in December chatting with CNBC in an effort to reassure investors that the low price crude oil was only temporary and would not translate into a revisiting of the bloodbath of the 1980's, however their chart says that investors aren't drinking the koolaid.  (chart right - click to enlarge)

The same investor fear can be seen in southern lender BOK Financial which operates in Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, Northwest Arkansas, Colorado, Arizona, and Kansas/Missouri. (chart below - click to enlarge)

I believe that barring an OPEC cut in production or some outside supply disruption, crude will NOT recover in 2015 as explained in this post.   Is this what these bank charts are hinting at?

The next question is if these banks begin to see defaults in oil and gas names, just how many dominos lie behind in the high-yield bond financial trail.  As Becky Quick points out, hedging only lasts for so long so i

More than half the new households formed in the next six years will be renters rather than homeowners, according to a new report by the Urban Institute. But there aren’t nearly enough rental units to keep up with demand.

The result will be (is) low vacancy rates and higher rents, alongside stagnant incomes. Renter incomes are on average only 70% of homeowner incomes and add to that wide spread student loan debt and you have a good investment I believe will continue to profit (and pass on any interest rate hikes to their tenants).  This is not a short term blip on the radar screen either (see table below).  While everyone on CNBS (sic) will be cheering to buy builders, I will be watching apartment REITs for my IRA account.  Buy on weakness, sell on strength and ooooh, those dividends are a thing of beauty.

• Equity Residential (EQR) is perhaps the biggest name in the space, with 580 properties stretching across 24 states, representing some 152,000 rental units.  Good liquidity trading 1.

Rails are having a difficult time nowadays.  You can point a finger at lower gasoline prices, making shipment by tanker and truck more affordable but I believe you can also point a finger at the GOP and their desire to pass the Kochstone Keystone XL pipeline proposal.

It is what it is; bearish. 

Although CP shown here (click chart to enlarge) has not 'broken down' out of a bearish descending triangle, the lower swing high and high volume selling is evident.

I am already short but if it comes back to test upper resistance, you too can get short or purchase puts.  Risk and target shown.  Long live cheap gas.

After Friday's spectacular 10% sell off in black gold, I went back to my earlier post on shorting crude oil and felt pretty darn good as I made myself a turkey sandwich for lunch.  Some would say it was a capitulation bottom but I just didn't see the volume which would come with such a move.   Yes there was heavy selling but it was funds getting OUT of energy names and forced selling - not buying a dip.  Sure, it can snap back and a near term bottom is most likely in but I will not be trading that.  The top is in in my opinion.  I will view any move higher (without an event risk occurring) as an opportunity to re-short at a higher level.

I still believe the entire sector is extremely over crowded with over 100 oil companies just in the U.S. alone.  While deflation in any sector is difficult to swallow, I may not be too far from the truth.  According to the WSJ:

Energy stocks are on sale following a five-month plunge in crude oil, but so far few investors are heeding the temptation