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Technicals (62)

Admin

Is The Stock Market Rally Over?

As technicians battle over whether our "hated" seven year rally still has legs, I continue to return and ask myself "has anything truly blown up?".  I do personally believe the US Dollar will continue it strength and that will continue to put pressure on commodities, dividend payers and discretionary.  Financials and insurers will push higher.  Can the rest of the boat survive?  Are earnings guidance showing a 'rosey' picture of the future?  Will Trump win?  Too many unknowns for me.  This post, using monthly charts, brings me back to earth.  While I have no need to catch the absolute top, it gives me specific areas which need to be defined.  I remain cautious and yes, have numerous short positions as well as…

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Admin

The Market Deteriorates Further. 'Bout Time

The stock market continues to weaken, as evidenced by these ETF charts.    If you zero in on a sector you wish to short, I would bear in mind that ETFs are comprised of market leaders.  I would look for names "outside" of the ETF components; consider them leaders and you want the weaklings to short.

The reasons for weakness are numerous. 

Consider the election weight (a Trump win would weigh on equities but Clinton weighs on pharma pricing).  Then there are flat-to-dropping sales.  Of course the USD movement (up will weigh on commodities and large caps with overseas exposure).  Then there's those who feel we are already at or above maximum value and they're not buying here.  They're hedged, short some and long financials ahead of the Fed rate hike.  Then there's that Fed hike itself.  High dividend is flushing down the toilet (SDY) in September.  Overseas weakness with…

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Admin

Buyers Stay Home; See You Next Fall

(Click image to enlarge)

There's nothing here that even remotely makes me want to make a purchase. These are weekly shots of the main indexes so what do you see?

We rallied up over weeks like crazy madmen, squeezing out weak shorts and even had the heaviest shorted sectors help out with a short covering rally; getting the weekly into 'overbought' levels. We came up right against the long term column trend line resistance, hit overbought levels...........the weekly is rolling over. Another failure. Sorry boys. So much for that.

Certainly day traders and short-term swing traders will make their long plays but who has time for that............and why go against the trend of 'this' market......which is down. That's rhetorical.

  • We know the market is stretched on a valuation…

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Admin

Bear Market? Yes It Is

The latest market selloff can be blamed on any number of things.  China slowdown or a possible hard landing in China, basic profit taking after a six-year run, declining earnings, no further QE in the US, a uptick in rates in the US, weak US economy, commodity (including crude oil) collapse, weakening of 'risk' currencies due to the commodity selloff, disappearance of buybacks, dividends being lowered, strong US dollar pressuring balance sheets, bear markets in pc sales, rail fees,.........the list goes on and on.  Bottom line: we need something solid to rally on and I fear any earnings pops will be given back.  Netflix will be a good example tomorrow after the close.  We simply cannot justify going higher without a catalyst.

The Wall Street Journal reminds us that this is not 2008 redux but just 'where' we bottom is open to…

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Admin

And They Crawl Out Of The Woodwork

You know it's coming and it won't be any easier to take than when you were small and your Mother said "I told you so".  The blogisphere will now erupt with the force of an annoying snaggle tooth emphatically screaming "I warned you" and "I said it was coming.........now buy my plan so you're prepared"  and ca-ching, you cough up the coin like a kid at the carnival freak show.   Every smidiot and hack will now attack your inbox on how they could have prevented your losses and how (via in their premier plan) you would have benefited this week.......if you had only listened.

Puhlease

Markets correct.  On occasion, they correct…

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Admin

TLT Signals Changing?

With the new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY signal on TLT and the break out for second time above the March low, I decided it was definitely time to abort the bearish Adam and Eve double-top pattern that I have been watching in earnest. Instead, I'm now seeing a rounded bottom; also known as a saucer bottom, it is a reversal chart pattern representing a long period of consolidation that turns from a bearish bias to a bullish bias (ChartSchool article on Rounded Bottoms located here). The…

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Admin

Market Pause. Would You Buy Here?

With all of America's 401k's flowing into equities and with CNBC continually saying bonds are the worst trade around, one has to determine if continuing to buy here is the smartest way to go or take partials, roll up your stops and raise cash rather than buying this top.

Technically the monthly chart shows MACD posed to bear cross although the month is far from over.  The bollinger band is flattening out which does not say to "buy" here but remain cautious and sit on hands.

Here TLT for a quick glance at the monthly and yeah, it's still selling.  Could see a temporary bounce (here or there) but overall, the trend is still down so equities (or cash) it is.…

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Admin

Poised For Jobless Claims

Ready for tomorrow's numbers, gold and IWM are ready to head either way.  Utilities are sitting at support and banks are ready to scream up.

Higher-than-expected claim numbers will mean the economy is not as strong as we believed and the chances of a June rate hike will be off the table until September. 

No support or resistance is broken so we'll wait for the numbers but isn't it grand; how the markets are not rigged.  Sarcasm alert there.  Good…

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Admin

Bulls Must Be Patient

Things rising now are for the most part due to those (few) who see better earnings ahead, an earnings beat or rising on the struggling dollar........while peers get a definitely smaller bid....or none.  It's a struggle.  You'll notice more losing trades recently as markets are searching out the "good".  Some are talking recession (I don't buy that) while others struggle to find a way to get "through" the soft patch; waiting for 2016.  

In futures, volume has dropped off the cliff overnight.  It's amazing (and worth noting).

One things that's stood out for me is the increase in dividends and buybacks.  Yes, there's been an increase and new ones begun while O&G cut theirs.  Isn't it interesting how the market will do whatever it can to keep people in stocks.  Just sayin'.

AMZN is leading the Nasdaq with AAPL reporting this week but MRVL just announced a much …

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Admin

Now Do You Believe? Sell In May Began Early

The majority of sector ETFs closed their week below their 50d with energy having filled the gap.....and found sellers waiting there.

SPX itself found sellers at $2100 (clearly we weren't the only ones selling) which is 17x earnings.  More and more are accepting reality that earnings have dropped the most in six years and the Fed (with no QE) will most likely begin to slowly raise interest rates in September.  Don't believe me, just ask Barclays.

  • US dollar found buyers at the 10week sma, prior support.  Yes, they're taking profits.  Will it continue?  It's nonetheless weighing on U.S. earnings.…

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Admin

Diamond Top In Small Caps

As discussed yesterday in Chat, small caps appear to be forming a diamond which can represent a "top" or merely taking a rest or consolidation before resuming it's trek higher.

Theory is to trade the direction of the break higher or lower.  IWM would work for a bullish breakout and TWM for a bearish break down for those who are unable to short.

fwiw we recently traded TWM on market weakness.  Looks as though it may be setting up again.

For more information on diamonds, I would suggest you browse through Thomas Bulkowski's pages at ThePatternSite.

For a technical analysis trader or investor, you need to be…

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Admin

Breakouts vs. Breakdowns

According to BTIG Research, there remains cause to be concerned after the stock market's bounce last week.

For the first time since the October low, breakdowns have outnumbered breakouts. This is a byproduct of the 5% pullback in the SPX over the past two weeks, which naturally saw some stocks break support levels. We are inclined to worry about breakdowns when they are abundant (at least 10% of the SPX, more than this time around) and recurrent (outnumbering breakouts for at least 2-3 weeks).

This last occurred in October, when the market suffered deterioration in breadth that was significant enough to suggest a structural shift may be underway. For this reason, we would be inclined to use strength to sell stocks that…

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Admin

It's Not A Bullish Engulfing Quite Yet

I should have titled this "counting your chickens before they're hatched".  Anyway, a few words on bullish engulfing candles, the term of which is being bandied about a great deal today.  But don't count your chickens.  Just because price took out a high and a low, does NOT a bullish engulfing make.  It's also unwise to call something a engulfing or any other pattern when the trading day is not yet over.  As explained by stockcharts.com

The bullish engulfing pattern consists of two candlesticks, the first black and the second white. The size of the black candlestick is not…

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Admin

Bullish on Small Caps

In early October, I pointed out that the Russell 2000 (IWM or $RUT) could be forming a bullish butterfly pattern, having found buyers off of the 20month SMA.  (See here

Well so far so good and I'm calling it's recent consolidation a bull "flag" due to no significant breakdown in the other three indexes, nor semiconductors.

Friday we saw banks and broker/dealers make a nice reversal higher after comments were made, that while the ECB is not easing "now", they will be preparing a QE plan for their January meeting.  The U.S. 10 year popped and the banks/brokers followed in suit.

Small caps also typically outperform large caps going into the end of the year.  While the stronger…

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Admin

Guilty Until Proven Innocent

Just like a civil courts case, the market is now guilty until it can prove itself innocent.  Just as in January/February 2014, we are trading below a falling 20d, which to many, represents sellers there.

As the cases of Ebola continue in Africa, residents down here in Dallas are nervously watching the news for any indication of further spread from the Dallas infected.  It's tragic and unsettling.  While I prepare to fly to Chicago tomorrow for my daughters wedding, I must admit to already having thoughts "what if the infection spreads further here while I am gone?".  I've never been an alarmist however those in voluntary quarantine continue to take risks, going on airplanes and cruise ships, placing others at risk.  If more Ebola cases spout up in other cities, will people begin to stay in their homes and venture out less to theaters, malls, restaurants, bars, etc.?

The ECB announced they will begin their …

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Admin

Is It A Correction Or Bear Market?

“Is the S&P in a correction or Bear market Mom?” is the question I received from my daughter last night. She’s been learning the stock market slowly over the last five or so years and I cringe at times with the questions she poses however no question is a bad question. I’d rather she come to me than blindly follow some pundit or supposed guru to $99/month subscription. After all, if he/she is so smart – why do they even need to charge for anything?  Just sit back and enjoy the wealth.

While the big boys and their algorithms have their calculated strategy, this is how I explained it to her in my simple, 'laywomans' terms.  In my mind big money typically buys at major supports during a correction. They sit back and salivate at an opportunity to, not buy the dip, buy buy on the cheap and define their risk.

For me, I consider the monthly 20 SMA as you can see from my prior post on the subject…

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Admin

Roasted NFLX

You mean when you raise prices, it affects subscriber levels?  No one told Reed Hastings and nor did he forewarn the market of the drop which was coming.  NFLX already has streaming competition from HBO (TWC) and talk is being bandied about that CBS will be joining that pool along side AMZN and others and well, it all equals = more competition.  NFLX is no longer 'unique'.  Yes I am short this pos based off the technical divergences on the daily chart.  Burnt popcorn anyone?…

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Admin

S&P500 Monthly Supports

Merely my observation of the S&P500 based on it's 20 year monthly chart.  It would appear most 'dips' were bought heavily at the 20month SMA with the 20month (off the low) SMA being the line in the sand..........at least on the last two 'bubbles'.

The 20m (off the low) then became overhead resistance. 

Just food for thought.  I have sent an alert for SPX at both levels in an effort to "buy like the big boys".  At least buying 'there' is limiting my downside risk (wink wink).  We could definitely bounce before then but the MACD looks to be rolling over somewhat and let's face it; October is a tough month.  I'm sincerely anticipating further volatility as even semiconductors and rails are exhibiting signs of selling.  I look forward to buying cheaper; aren't you?…

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Admin

Small Cap Bullish Butterfly?

We've all watching the weakness unfold in small caps and I would question whether it is truly weakness or has merely been consolidating after running too far, too quickly.  One distinct possibility is that it has now formed a bullish butterfly as shown right (click image to enlarge).

The measurements using a fat crayola are there, although butterfly patterns can extend down to a 161.8% extension so further downside would not void the possibility.  It would merely wash out all weak hands by taking out the low before reversing.

If so, here is your entry to get long with risk…

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