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Turnaround Tuesday Reads

  • Amazon ($AMZN) is developing plans to roll out it's own payment solutions program to compete with PayPal ($EBAY) but sorry guys.........no Bitcoin is not part of their master plan. Note Amazong already has over 200 million credit cards already in their registered accounts.  This after plans came out the Facebook ($FB) is planning the same.  We have been accumulating EBAY for months but all of this is not good news for the online name.
  • People's Bank of China disclosed it withdrew 172B yuan ($28B) through repurchase agreements. China's money supply grew at its weakest pace in over a decade during March. Shares of banks and brokerage firms in China stumbled on concerns of capital outflow. 
  • Many will be watching for a follow through up day in the indexes today as the Nasdaq bounced off of February support.  If this is the case, watch for precious metals to take a beating.
  • Investor confidence in Germany fell for a 4th straight month which has a depressing effect on sentiment because German

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Weekend Reads

An ongoing list for your weekend consideration.  Check back with us throughout to view additions to your reading and trade setups here (and in the Charts section).. 

  • 1290493?profile=originalPoor, poor Diet Coke.  A chart says it all.1290540?profile=RESIZE_480x480
  • Reminder:  Tuesday is our income tax deadline (click image to better view IRS excuses) with Good Friday to follow, on which U.S. markets will be closed.  Short weeks tend to be bullish with low volume however that remains to be seen given current conditions.  Most, it would seem, believe any rally attempt will fail at higher levels. 
  • Electric cars, "peak oil", wind/solar and why high gas prices is a good thing McKinsey
  • A study of peak P/E for the S&P500 SeekingAlpha
  • Pro-Russia armed men seize police station in the Eastern Ukraine city of Kiev.  Why should Pooty have to lift a finger when militant forces are doing the work for him?
  • With crude oil recently being pushed higher due to the tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, I felt the need to dig up this 2010 post

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Admin

TGIF Reads

  • Jaw-dropping chart of the day is consumer income vs. the stock market.  Can you say mean reversion?  Which one will revert first?1290562?profile=RESIZE_480x480
  • Don't forget to check out our Charts section for trade ideas, historic, seasonal charts and much more!
  • Germany's $11 billion program MobiPro-EU to train youths with job skills has run out of money.  In all seriousness, the US could certainly use some form of program such as this or give Corporations incentives to offer re-training for those long out of work.  Whatever happened to vocational training in high schools?  Cut along with education spending?  That wasn't a smart idea Congress.
  • 90% of crops in the U.S. are now GMO. (WSJ)  Considering how many countries have banned GMO's, is this a good or bad thing for Monsanto? $MON

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Admin

1290557?profile=originalSadly I'm sure she's not the only one out there.......but  if someone can get 800% returns - they wouldn't need your money.  *LOL* 

The SEC today announced fraud charges against a Honolulu woman posing as an investment banker and soliciting investors through Twitter, Facebook, and other social media.

An SEC investigation found that Keiko Kawamura engaged in two separate fraudulent schemes to raise money from investors while casting herself as an investment and hedge fund expert when in fact she had virtually no prior trading experience. In one scheme, she sought investors for her self-described hedge fund and posted on Twitter some screenshots of brokerage account statements suggesting she was personally obtaining incredible investment returns. However, the account statements were not hers. And instead of investing the money she raised from investors, she spent it on her own living expenses and luxury trips to Miami and London. In a later scheme, Kawamura continued t

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Admin

Throw Back Thursday Reads

  • Initial jobless claims fell 32,000 last week, the largest drop in more than 10 years and, though the Labor Department says there are no special factors involved,
  • Market quickly reversing yesterdays gains and more.  If you got long yesterday, you're most likely out now.  The bulls really needed today to confirm yesterdays move.  If you're a bull, this morning's action is quite concerning.......but the day has only begun.
  • Chinese exports tumbled 6.6% on year in March, which represented an improvement from an 18.1% plunge in February, although consensus was for growth of 4%. Imports slumped a worse-than-expected 11.3%, while the trade balance swung to a surplus of $7.71B from a deficit of $22.98B
  • Tesla Motors intends to begin selling its electric cars in China this month, with spokesman Simon Sproule saying that CEO Elon Musk will "personally" do customer deliveries. Musk reckons that China can be Tesla's (TSLA) largest market, although Barclays analyst Brian Johnson retains some skeptic

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Admin

Turnaround Tuesday Reads

  • 1290518?profile=RESIZE_480x480Did  the market simply get ahead of itself vs EPS?  Click chart to enlarge.
  • What do rubber/tires and biotechnology have in common?  They're the top two areas of 5 year growth according to Goldman Sachs global IQ
  • DB upgraded Alcoa ($AA) to Hold from Sell, citing expectations of higher realized aluminum prices. A weekend report said Alcoa may be turning around, due to its commitment to using aluminum for cars and as global producers have begun to cut capacity.  Full disclosure: Kos recommended AA as a drawer stock sub $9/share in July 2013. 
  • 14 companies are due to price IPOs through Thursday, which would make this week the busiest for such offerings since November 2007.
  • High-cost copper miners face a stark choice between cutting production and sustaining losses for the first time in a decade.  FT.com
  • McKinsey explorers the next industrial revolution doing more and saving with existing (recycled) resources.

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Admin

Monday Reads

  • Big Put buying going on against the Nasdaq according to Bloomberg.  Is anyone shocked given the heavy selling the last two weeks?  It's not a dip, there's something more going on here and we all know it this time.
  • GM allegedly to invest in Michigan and hire 1400 workers for their Volt production line.  Unconfirmed at this point but press release is supposed to come tomorrow.
  • You'd think with more streaming services being released (NFLX, AMZN, GOOG) that cable providers would be feeling the pinch but JPM recommends they hike prices anyway.  The loss of customers will be offset by price paid by those who remain.  (because $150 a month is cheap.  Augh!) 

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Admin

Historic SPX Supports - And Past Crashes

This weekend I focused on the LARGER, long-term picture of the stock market to make it overall easier for my brain to comprehend. 

  1. Merely when "what" moving average crossed what moving average (on a monthly, not daily or weekly chart) would be a decent indicator of trend?   I wasn't going for exact science here but more a common sense approach when it comes to the long haul.  Just "when" should I bail and sit on my hands with my IRA?  *This" unfortuantey is a topic for another conversation.
  2. The BIGGER question was at what point do I really want to jump back in and "buy on the cheap"?  

I should explain that I trade based on 80% technicals (fibonacci combined with chart patterns) and only about 20% fundamentals but my trading style is to buy at a support rather than a breakout.  This became my personal preference after having been "shook out" of breakouts once too many times over the years.  This style is not for everyone but buying at support, I feel my downside risk is more c

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Admin

Weekend Reads

1290501?profile=RESIZE_320x320

  • 200 million social security numbers breached @ Experian.  US Attorney General to launch probe. (nothing is safe if a credit bureau is hacked)
  • The DoJ confirms the FBI is investigating high frequency trading (HFT).  With the way broker/dealers (AMTD, ETFC, SCHW) were slapped heavily last week, it looks like this time it's serious.
  • The FBI is asking the public (traders and stock exchange workers) to blow the whistle on HFT.
  • The SEC (accustomed to making it's own decisions when it comes to TBTF banks) feels their authority has been undercut and doesn't care for Dodd-Frank or The Financial Stability Oversight Council, who now can make it's own regulations with respect to "systemically important" financial institutions.  Shocking.........because the SEC did such a horrible bang-up job of stopping the last financial crisis. Heritage.org
  • Where have all the workers gone?  WSJ takes a look (free access).  If you ask me, there's no incentive with minimum wage so low and those long o

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • Semiconductors are finally seeing some heavy volume this morning in $SMH.
  • David Letterman (67) announced his retirement in 2015 as he has struggled in 3rd place with the much coveted 18-49 age group behind front runner Jimmy Fallon and Jimmy Kimmel.  Fallon has built himself a comfortable lead and maybe Letterman saw the writing on the wall.  I'd look to buy $CBS stock at lower valuations with eager anticipation of just "who" will be his replacement.  This would be an excellent opportunity for CBS to "update" their boring image (my opinion strictly).  Come on CBS - something with zombies please.  *lol*  

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • Schwab says HFT is a "Cancer" that must be addressed.  "The primary principle behind our markets has always la-fi-obamacare-deadline-20140328-g?width=437 been that no one should carry an unfair advantage. That simple but fundamental principle is being broken." When big players such as Schwab begin to speak out, one must wonder if this will gain attention now.
  • GT sold some AMZN 360/365 bear call spreads.  Still feel that's a HST
  • Citibank $C reports$400M in fraudulent loans out of their Mexico subsidiary; lowered profit forecast. 
  • Kos is calling bearish head-and-shoulder tops in a few ETFs.  Find out which in our charts section.
  • Corporate profits continue to show strength - this for the long term investor Califia Beach Pundit
  • Using California as a proxy, enrollment in ACA has been good with the exception of Latinos and to a lesser extent young (healthy) Americans.
  • After the close, CME lowered margin rqmts. on crude oil, gold, silver and coal..  Seriously?  As if we need higher gasoline to jeopardize the recovery?  Well, inflation

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Admin

Hump Day Reading

1290510?profile=RESIZE_320x320

  • For all the worrying about weather impacting job creation, Trim Tabs say real time tax receipt data (allegedly more reliable than BLS data) suggests that the economy has been picking up steam.  24/7WallStreet
  • A 8.2% magnitude earthquake overnight off the coast of Chile with a 2 meter tsunami.  Supposedly mining operations have not been affected buy you try to tell that to silver and gold this morning.  They're not buying it (so far)
  • Interesting metrics from Flurry on mobile usage today.  GOOG accounts for 18% of time spent by consumers which includes YouTube, while FB is 17%.   Android web browsing is losing market share, going from 20% or usage down to 14%
  • Facebook apps continue to hold strength ahead of Google according to Comscore data..  Twitter's app was only used by 22.8% of U.S. smartphone users in January. 77.6% used Facebook's core app, and 27.5% Instagram. Five different Google apps were used by over 40% of users.
  • The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) met it's targ

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • A minimum wage deal appears to be forming TheConstitutionalConservatives.com1290479?profile=original
  • Why MSFT should beward the $BOX IPO Stratechery
  • The truth behind 420 day HuffingtonPost
  • China's mfg sector, which focuses on larger state-owned enterprises, edging up to 50.3 in March from 50.2 in February. The HSBC index, which gives more weight to smaller private companies, slipped to 48 from 48.5. HSBC says that its reading confirms the weakness of domestic demand and that it implies 1Q GDP growth of below the annual goal of 7.5%.
  • The FBI is now going to launch an investigation into HFT and quote stuffing (that should be interesting)
  • Is it odd or disconcerting that Elon Musk said he never expected TSLA to actually succeed..........or am I the only one?
  • Not everyone feels the Alibaba IPO is a good thing as companies with dual class shares and unequal voting rights simply allow bad managers to avoid accountability.

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Admin

Weekend Reads

  • 1290481?profile=originalTesla $TSLA cuts deal with Cuomo allowing them to retain their five stores (as long as they don't open more)  Full Disclosure Kos is long TSLA
  • Putin calls Obama stating he has no plans to invade Ukraine further.  Bloomberg
  • The S&P lowered it's credit rating on Target $TGT to A from A+ following its weak Q4.  With Spring crawling (albeit slowly) across the nation, will warmer temps finally boost retailers?  Full disclosure Kos is long TGT.
  • Drag your kids kicking and screaming if you must, to school  47% of jobs are at high risk of becoming computerized over the next few decades, says a new Oxford University study..  (Do you really want them living with you for the rest of your life?)

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • Just goes to show you, when it's hated, it can outperform.  Who was the outperformer for your money in Q1?  Bonds baby! Bespoke
  • Today is Option Expiration for some weekly options.  Monday will be end of month and end of quarter.  Redemption selling has been pretty vicious but orderly.  Some feel this is the beginning of a larger correction and that reaction rallies should be sold at the higher level.  Clear rotation out of tech and small caps into fixed income, financials and oil/gas. Kos picked up slivers of her favorites names last night looking for some window dressing.  Keep an eye on USD/JPY for proxy for risk appetite.  To those not so brave, let the market show it's direction before pulling the trigger and even then, be nimble and prepared to bail.
  • 60 minutes will be doing a spot on Elon Musk and TSLA Sunday evening.
  • Early on, there's been market chatter of further easing coming out of Japan and Fed's Evans talking to reporters that he feels rates won't be increased unt

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