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Given the price action in the market lately, there's been much discussion here on what constitutes a pullback and what constitutes a change in direction or trend. The suggestions have ranged from three weekly or monthly lower closes, a close below a certain moving average, various moving average crosses and more but in all honesty I don't think there's *one* holy grail. One indicator that satisfies all investors across all asset classes and we all have different loss tolerances and for that matter, different viewpoints or perspectives on the world economy and it's ongoing recovery.

This discussion however, brought to mind the following [somewhat lengthy] excerpt from the novel on Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, written in 1923 by Edwin Lefevre [available in PDF format in our Books Forum] This excerpt helps reinforce in my mind the importance trading in the direction of the primary move, and to avoid the noise of short-term fluctuations which quite honestly, is difficult for a short-term trader such as myself to remember on a daily basis. I welcome your comments, and enjoy!

In Fullerton's there were the usual crowd. All grades! Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man. Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings.

He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others. He did not seem very keen to get tips -- that is, he never asked the talkers what they'd heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again -- when the tip turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by. It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn't donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.

The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock. They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap's answer was always the same. The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: "What do you think I ought to do? Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, "You know, it's a bull market!"

Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market, you know!" as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning. One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk. Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning's story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it.

Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, "Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you'd better do likewise. That is, if you've still got yours." Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.

"Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!" said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap.

"Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip," said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man. Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary's face Elmer went on: "I have just sold every share I owned!" From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares.

But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, "No! No! I can't do that!"

'What?" yelled Elmer.

"I simply can't!" said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble.

"Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?"

"You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you.

Indeed, I am, sir. But --"

"Hold on! Let me talk! And didn't that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn't it?"

"It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn't think of selling that stock."

"You couldn't?" asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers.

"No, I couldn't."

"Why not?" And Elmer drew nearer.

"Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation.

"That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. "I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself."

"My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?"

Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get sympathy: "Can you beat it?" he asked me in a stage whisper. "I ask you!"

I didn't say anything. So he went on: "I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He's got seven points' profit and I advise him to get out and buy 'em back on the reaction that's overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He says that if he sells he'll lose his job. What do you know about that?"

"I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I'd lose my job," cut in old Turkey. "I said I'd lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don't feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know." And he strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.

What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.

I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.

Lastly, this short excerpt

Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that

the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps! Wait until you see -- or if you prefer, until you think you see the turn of the market; the beginning of a reversal of general conditions. You have to use your brains and your vision to do this"

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Comments

  • (didnt mean to end that just yet lol)

    the reason i say there are right and wrong ways is because IMO it doesnt much matter who can or cant hold on. thats their business and their hang ups, this has nothing to do with proper analysis of the market. buying stocks that have a P/E lower than 10 and selling them when their P/E is above 20 is a winning strategy. never mind the fact that it takes greater than a 50% stop to make it so. it IS true and has continued to work throughout history.

    yes, absolutely, the average human will scream and cut their thumbs off before they take that kind of loss. but that doesnt mean the strategy cant make money. it just means humans are too goofy to follow it. there are strategies, thoughts, beliefs about the market that are just out right inferior to others (ive harboured many of them in my time). theyre often brought out by human nature, often make us feel good/smart/accepted....but theyre still wrong.
  • This book changed my trading career. shocking for some, there isnt one indicator or "fundamental" measurment to be found in this book. it actually took reading it twice to have such a moving effect on me (i first read it too early in my trading to understand it).

    Though i suppose i need to agree that there is no holy grail to tell us when to call it a bull market and when not to, i dont have a very kumbaya view about it. i spent a lot of time--because of this book--trying to find indicators that were the best of the best at diagnosing general conditions in a way that is repeatable and testable. none of these are 100% accurate but most will get you far far ahead of the game. then there are other things, goofy things, that are just factually wrong but are right frequently enough to keep people believing in them.these shouldnt be followed but rather laughed at. sadly, they get the most coverage and attention.

    as for the 3 month rule, it goes like this: no bull market has had more than 3 consecutive months of declines. its not a guess or something that sounds cute, it just hasnt happened---yet.
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