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Bulls Must Be Patient

Things rising now are for the most part due to those (few) who see better earnings ahead, an earnings beat or rising on the struggling dollar........while peers get a definitely smaller bid....or none.  It's a struggle.  You'll notice more losing trades recently as markets are searching out the "good".  Some are talking recession (I don't buy that) while others struggle to find a way to get "through" the soft patch; waiting for 2016.  

In futures, volume has dropped off the cliff overnight.  It's amazing (and worth noting).

One things that's stood out for me is the increase in dividends and buybacks.  Yes, there's been an increase and new ones begun while O&G cut theirs.  Isn't it interesting how the market will do whatever it can to keep people in stocks.  Just sayin'.

AMZN is leading the Nasdaq with AAPL reporting this week but MRVL just announced a much lower 2015 than previously believed so computers seem a weak area.  Spot plays remain such as SNE who just raised their guidance again; second time in three months thanks to Playstation sales   Pay attention to those tickers inside ETFs as sector leaders.  We need more of them to break higher on good news, or we fail.  Areas of curiosity are as follows:

  • SMH is that a right shoulder just been capped?
  • IYT stopped at the 50d and 100d?  If I were a short, that's where I'd be selling.
  • Gold and silver:  In large H&ST?  Working on right shoulders now?

Fact though is many are betting against the U.S. Dollar now.  Many such as GannGlobal are praying the dollar continues to weaken - and they're betting on commodities to benefit.

The COT (Commitment of Trader) in USD reflects that speculators have been taking profits this month but large traders are (for the most part) still heavily long.  I imagine it just comes down to how fast we'll see improvements in economic numbers overseas.  It certainly will be interesting.

The market is forever looking forward for reasons to rise.  Are there enough?

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