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Cash Flow Out Of Emerging Markets

Worldwide money flows are of interest to a long term investor and the flight out of emerging markets has been striking.  Weren't emerging markets supposed to where our expansion was to take place?  What now?

According to the IIF, the volatile market conditions have taken a toll on capital flows to emerging markets, with net non-resident portfolio flows in August falling into negative territory for the first time in 2015, according to the Institute of International Finance’s latest EM Portfolio Flows Tracker. Outflows were estimated at $4.5 billion in August compared to inflows of $6.7 billion in July.

“Portfolio flows to emerging markets have retreated sharply in the last few weeks,” said Charles Collyns, chief economist at the IIF. “Emerging market investors have been spooked by rising uncertainty about China, and stress has been exacerbated by a combination of fundamental concerns about EM economic prospects and volatility in global financial markets.”

Emerging market equity flows fell to their lowest level since the 2013 taper tantrum at -$8.7 billion, while debt flows were estimated to have softened but remained positive at $4.2 billion in August. 

The IIF also issued a Flows Alert, highlighting a marked intensification of the retrenchment in EM portfolio flows in recent days. The alert was triggered on Monday, August 24. That day alone, the seven emerging markets that provide daily flows data experienced outflows of $2.7 billion, the same magnitude as on September 17, 2008 during the week of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.

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