$spx - What We're Reading - StockBuz2024-03-29T12:13:42Zhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/feed/tag/%24spxGuilty Until Proven Innocenthttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/guilty-until-proven-innocent2014-10-17T20:51:03.000Z2014-10-17T20:51:03.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>Just like a civil courts case, the market is now guilty until it can prove itself innocent. Just as in January/February 2014, we are trading below a <em>falling</em> 20d, which to many, represents sellers there.</p>
<p>As the cases of Ebola continue in Africa, residents down here in Dallas are nervously watching the news for any indication of further spread from the Dallas infected. It's tragic and unsettling. While I prepare to fly to Chicago tomorrow for my daughters wedding, I must admit to already having thoughts "what if the infection spreads further here while I am gone?". I've never been an alarmist however those in voluntary quarantine continue to take risks, going on airplanes and cruise ships, placing others at risk. If more Ebola cases spout up in other cities, will people begin to stay in their homes and venture out less to theaters, malls, restaurants, bars, etc.?</p>
<p>The ECB announced they will begin their <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/ecb-begin-asset-purchases-within-days-board-member-185114529.html" target="_blank">asset purchase program</a> much sooner than expected after a raft of grim eurozone data this week alarmed financial markets and placed both Germany's doctrine of budgetary rigour and the ECB's monetary policy in the hot seat. While this may help American multinationals with exposure to the EU, it definitely does not help small caps, 80% of which have no European exposure. Small caps may not able to weather a strong U.S. dollar as easily as their larger cousins either. This may be why the Russell 2000 saw weakness again today but small caps are also a barometer for overall risk appetite itself. Is the market selling over or merely back filling so the shorts can re-load at higher levels? That's what I would do.<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290949?profile=original"><img class="align-center" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290949?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a>As I said, I feel the market is guilty until proven innocent. While $RUT and the Dow have tried to bounce off their 20m (a nice place to buy) we still have a good deal of geopolitical headline risk with Isis, Russia/Ukraine tensions, North Korea's Kim Jong Un's mysterious disappearance from public view, China's (and Europe's) slowdown to contend with and of course Ebola nagging in the background. Let's not forget 3Q earnings which have kicked off and 4Q guidance. Many concerns circle the retail and consumer discretionary area. Is the consumer tapped out here? </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291007?profile=original"><img class="align-center" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291007?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a></p>
<p>Clearly Wednesday's low must hold. SPX et al closing above the 50% retracement level would have me raising an eyebrow. Closing above the 78.6% and I'll bet you a steak dinner we challenge the market highs. It is entirely possible we are merely carving out a wide trading range and will resolve matters via time rather than price. While I nibbled on a few longs this week, I've hedged both. I'd rather be right and lose a little with worthless puts, than be fully exposed and have face ripped off.</p>
<p>Note: I will be out of office until Thursday, October 23rd. Intentionally leaving my laptop at home. If you experience a problem, you may contact me @ mrsbuz1@aol.com</p></div>Easter Weekend Readshttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/easter-weekend-reads2014-04-20T23:35:32.000Z2014-04-20T23:35:32.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><ul>
<li>Energy is better than technology <a href="http://allstarcharts.com/energy-better-technology/" target="_blank">Stocktwits</a><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290590?profile=original"><img class="align-right" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290590?profile=RESIZE_320x320" width="275"></a></li>
<li>State Department indefinitely postpones the Keystone pipeline (obviously waiting for November mid-terms or if all else fails, a new, hopefully more persuasive President in 2016) <a href="http://ecowatch.com/2014/04/18/state-department-delays-keystone-xl-pipeline/" target="_blank">Ecowatch</a></li>
<li>General Mills pulls a fast one (I'm sure more will follow) using the fine print when you "like" a page on Facebook ($FB) thereby agreeing to forced arbitration. In simple terms, you won't sue them for product recalls, mis-labeling, you name it. Pretty slick, I must say. <a href="http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/04/17/liking-companies-on-facebook-could-give-away-your-right-to-sue-them/#.U1GEGBbiWf8.google_plusone_share" target="_blank">Rawstory</a> </li>
<li>Money rotation into late cycle names continues <a href="http://allstarcharts.com/money-rotates-late-cycle-names/" target="_blank">Stocktwits</a></li>
</ul></div>Damn It Feels Goodhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/damn-it-feels-good2014-04-07T17:31:30.000Z2014-04-07T17:31:30.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290533?profile=original"><img class="align-right" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290533?profile=RESIZE_320x320" width="275"></a>It feels good to actually be making money on the short side for once and not struggling. Yes, leadership has evaporated with utilities being the only real strength right now with head-and-shoulders tops and double tops as far as the eye can see. Transports, financials and even oil/gas is seeing profit taking at this juncture. The Nasdaq has lost it's 100d SMA which was historically great support. Remain hedged; there will be more downside. Whether we bounce a bit first (back and fill) to bring in more sellers is an unanswered question but don't buy the dip.............not yet.</p></div>Historic SPX Supports - And Past Crasheshttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/historic-spx-supports-and-past-crashes2014-04-06T16:36:28.000Z2014-04-06T16:36:28.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>This weekend I focused on the LARGER, long-term picture of the stock market to make it overall <em>easier</em> for my brain to comprehend. </p>
<ol>
<li>Merely when "what" moving average crossed what moving average (on a monthly, not daily or weekly chart) would be a <em>decent</em> indicator of trend? I wasn't going for <em>exact science</em> here but more a common sense approach when it comes to the <strong>long haul. </strong> Just "when" should I bail and sit on my hands with my IRA? *<strong>This"</strong> unfortuantey is a topic for another conversation.</li>
<li>The BIGGER question was <strong>at what point</strong> do I really want to <span style="text-decoration: underline;">jump back in</span> and "buy on the cheap"? </li>
</ol>
<p>I should explain that I trade based on 80% technicals (fibonacci combined with chart patterns) and only about 20% fundamentals but my trading style is to buy at a <span style="text-decoration: underline;">support</span> rather than a breakout. This became my personal preference after having been "shook out" of breakouts once too many times over the years. This style is not for everyone but buying at <span style="text-decoration: underline;">support</span>, I feel my downside risk is more clearly defined and I ride the stock higher before many others pile in. I'm notorious for buying double bottoms, wedges that have broken out and have come back to test support and even right shoulders at their bottom, as examples.</p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290515?profile=original"><img class="align-right" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290515?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"></a>In any case, these things became clear. </p>
<ul>
<li>In a correction, the 30month EMA has hands-down been support more often than not, then followed the 50m SMA <span style="text-decoration: underline;">unless</span> there's a larger issue occurring. (<strong>click chart to enlarge)</strong></li>
<li>For example the "tech crash" of 1970. Not only was there "euphoria" on the future growth of computer companies, tech was trading @ 119x P/E (!), earnings were flat or nonexistent, some analysts such as Dun & Bradstreet felt techs boast of 30% earnings growth was a myth and there were also the near-fatal mission of Apollo 13 and Nixon sending troops into Cambodia. Selling can beget selling with one thing after another and with this 25% correction, the 200m EMA was support.</li>
<li>In 1973-74 there was a larger correction thanks to (in part) the oil embargo where gasoline jumped 4x in price (and it's effect on consumer spending) as well as, of course, Vietnam. The support this time (what I'd call the buy of a lifetime after a 47% drop) was the 400m EMA............and this was support in 2009 as well.</li>
<li>During the market "crash" of 1987, the 50m SMA provided the safety net after 32% was gone.</li>
<li>In 2000-2003 (another huge 50% dump), the 200m EMA found huge buying interest.</li>
</ul>
<p>Obviously there are many more examples and it tends to vary but ask yourself "<span style="text-decoration: underline;">where do you want to buy</span>?" and even more importantly.......<em>where</em> is smart money buying? Even if I was dollar cost averaging, I wouldn't want to buy near a top and average down more than I would have to. Pension funds have that cash flow to buy at the top and hold losses for long periods of time - we don't!</p>
<p>Obviously don't take my word for it. Try it for yourself. Pull up a history monthly chart of $SPX and overlay the 20EMA, 30 EMA, 100EMA, 200EMA and 400EMA. Add a 50 SMA, sit back and scroll through time. In my opinion if you're a long term investor, <span style="text-decoration: underline;">these</span> our orders should lie. Certainly a good portion of my portfolio will continue to be swing trades based on daily and weekly chart but for long/holds, IRA or what we call "drawer stocks", this is where it's at if you ask me.</p>
<p>Now..........where are you going to buy based on the current "possible" stock market correction?</p>
<p>Trade safely my friend</p>
<p></p></div>$SPX Elliott Wave Count - A different bearish Versionhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/spx-elliott-wave-count-a2010-03-06T14:21:12.000Z2010-03-06T14:21:12.000ZGThttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/GT<div><p>I don't agree with this particular count either, but I think it's worth taking a look at. He certainly could be right...I do think the 1158 target makes sense as a short-term objective, though. <a rel="nofollow" href="http://bit.ly/cFMZ7p">http://bit.ly/cFMZ7p</a></p>
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