congress - What We're Reading - StockBuz2024-03-28T16:38:38Zhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/feed/tag/congressThe Obamacare Post-Trump Dilemmahttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/the-obamacare-post-trump-dilemma2016-12-06T22:29:52.000Z2016-12-06T22:29:52.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>If you're like me, we're all wondering what is going to occur with ACA (Obamacare) once Donald Trump takes office and the charts from Healthcare (XLV) and Biotech (XBI) certainly reflect the concern.  With the proposed 21st Century Cures Act, due for Senate passage this week, be the $5Billion dollar "game changer"  the sector is waiting for...........or will we be waiting until Congress replaces the unpopular components of Obamacare to see an impact in stock price?</p>
<p>Repealing or replacing Obamacare is fraught with at least <a href="http://www.ipi.org/ipi_issues/article_detail.asp?name=matthews-the-six-challenges-facing-an-obamacare-repeal">six major issues</a>, but perhaps the most significant one is a lack of decisiveness within the Republican party itself. What would Obamacare be replaced with, and how would that change be implemented?</p>
<p>Interestingly, there are <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/11/17/13626438/obamacare-replacement-plans-comparison">at least seven</a> Republican plans that have been tabled to replace Obamacare. Within that group, two of the more prominent ones come from Georgia Rep. Tom Price and House Speaker Paul Ryan.</p>
<p>Tom Price, who is Trump’s pick as the incoming secretary for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), has already published his <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/merrillmatthews/2016/12/01/now-we-know-what-the-republican-obamacare-replacement-plan-will-look-like/">consumer-driven healthcare model</a>, and it already exists in legal language. In additional, Paul Ryan released his own proposal in the form of the <a href="https://abetterway.speaker.gov/_assets/pdf/ABetterWay-HealthCare-PolicyPaper.pdf">A Better Way</a> plan earlier this year, which also touches on other issues such as poverty, national security, and the economy.</p>
<p>Despite the number of options, the problem is that no one can agree on a particular solution. The party is heavily divided, and Trump is already receiving <a href="http://www.salon.com/2016/12/06/tea-party-republicans-already-planning-major-resistance-to-donald-trumps-obamacare-replacement-plan/">heavy blowback</a> from the Tea Party faction for telegraphing potential delays in repealing or replacing the act.</p>
<p>Yes, the future of U.S. healthcare is murky – even to Trump and the GOP. However, what is clear is that with most chips stacked in the Republicans favor over the coming years, it is unlikely that they will miss the opportunity to initiate the post-Obamacare era in some shape or form.</p>
<div style="clear: both;"><a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-obamacare-dilemma/"><img src="http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/whats-happening-with-healthcare.png" border="0" /></a></div>
<div>Courtesy of: <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com">Visual Capitalist</a></div>
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</div>Christmas Came Early For These Sub Sectorshttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/christmas-came-early-for-these-sub-sectors2014-12-24T21:44:47.000Z2014-12-24T21:44:47.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.cfm-online.com/storage/federal-lobbying-blog-photos/lameduck_matt_605.jpg"><img class="align-left" src="http://www.cfm-online.com/storage/federal-lobbying-blog-photos/lameduck_matt_605.jpg?width=300" width="300" /></a>Who doesn't love the lame duck session?  It's that special time of year when Santa comes early to Wall Street and you too, can benefit.  As one example, outgoing Congressmen and woman who lost during mid terms, tend to throw in the towel (they won't be around next session anyway) and all types of goodies get through the Congressional pipeline which were stalled during the normal session.  This years winners if you're an investor are:</p>
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<li>Banks and insurers.  Congress repealed a portion of Dodd-Frank so that derivatives will now be covered once again by FDIC Insurance, thus lowering the risk to banks and insurers like AIG.*</li>
<li>Health insurance companies get to keep their special tax breaks.</li>
<li>Tourist destinations like Las Vegas get their travel promotion subsidies.*</li>
<li>In a victory for food companies, the legislation even makes federally subsidized school lunches less healthy by allowing companies that provide them to include fewer whole grains. This boosts their profits because junk food is less expensive to make.</li>
<li>Major defense contractors also win big. They get tens of billions of dollars for the new warplanes, missiles, and submarines they've been lobbying for.  (We pointed out defense and aerospace moving last week).</li>
<li>Big Pharma gets a big benefit: a prohibition on government using its vast bargaining power under Medicare and Medicaid to negotiate low drug prices.</li>
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<p>Sure there's a lot of junk.  Yes, it's crony capitalism but if you're ahead of curve, why not benefit?</p>
<p>*Full disclosure long positions in BAC, AIG and LVS.  Hat tip to <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/the-government-problem_b_6376972.html" target="_blank">HuffPo</a></p>
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</div>Wage Hike Ahead? Small Business Survey Suggests Yeshttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/wage-hike-ahead-small-business-survey-suggests-yes2014-07-12T15:56:08.000Z2014-07-12T15:56:08.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290832?profile=original"><img class="align-right" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290832?profile=RESIZE_320x320" width="299"></a>A view of the the NFIB survey and wage growth gives a hint of what may lie ahead in the wage sector. Consumer spending dropped $7 in June which surprised many. </p>
<p>(CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE)</p>
<p>While Americans' spending in June was generally on par or lower than their average May spending, this month's $7 drop is one of the largest recorded by Gallup during this time of year since 2008, when June spending fell by $10. The June 2008 spending average of $104 is still the highest average for that month in Gallup's six-year trend.</p>
<p>Can it be the <em>new</em> jobs being created (majority at the low end) is weighing on consumers pocketbook? #shocker! But what about the spending of the wealthy lifting all boats? You know; that good old trickle down effect?<br> <br> According to <a href="http://global.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=462618&cust=global-premium&year=2014&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top" target="_blank">Econoday</a>, the drop in daily spending among all Americans can largely be attributed to upper-income Americans spending less in June. Could the wealthy be running low on things to buy? Yes sarcasm on my part but a drop is not what anyone wishes to see.</p>
<p>There are some encouraging signs out there however.</p>
<p>The latest from the small business survey <a href="http://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/" target="_blank">(NFIB)</a> shows that while inventories are holding and capital outlays and sales projections are down, what's up is job openings and plans to hire. </p>
<p>Yes, plans to hire.</p>
<p>So what's holding back the consumer? My guess: low wages and gas prices.</p>
<p>David Kotok penned on Wednesday:<a target="_blank" href="http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/FINAL_minimum_wage_2014-03.jpg"><img class="align-right" src="http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/FINAL_minimum_wage_2014-03.jpg?width=600" height="834" width="492"></a></p>
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<p style="margin-left: .5in;">Gasoline prices have reached levels that (1) will be sustained for a while in all likelihood and (2) that are, in real terms, equivalent to levels that previously led to economic slowdowns in the US. This development prompted our exit from [an overweight position in the Energy] sector.</p>
<p style="margin-left: .5in;">In a compelling study, Ned Davis Research examined the real price of gasoline, adjusted for the inflation rate, and its economic impacts. The inflation-adjusted price of gasoline today has reached levels that have historically throttled growth. Furthermore, the Ned Davis study finds that a higher price for gasoline would be the equivalent of a major shock. The research suggests that under either circumstance – current gas prices or prices that surge even higher – the weight on the economy from that adjustment is onerous.</p>
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<p>So we're at "do or die" levels in energy. They've been trying to get Americans accustomed to $3 gallon gasoline and any conflict in the Middle East, would spike the black gold and damage US spending even further........because $4/gallon harms consumer spending in a big way.</p>
<p>So do they let the price of crude oil and gasoline drop? Heaven forbid it hit big oil's pocketbook or profit margins in any way. (sarcasm) Or do we push for higher minimum wage to ease the pain?</p>
<p>Already in 2014 we have seen the push intensify for Congress to raise the minimum wage with many states, tired of the deadlock, moving forward on their own to raise their own state or local minimum wage which I've written about numerous times <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fstockbuz.net%2Farticles%2Flist%2Ftag%2Fraise%2Bthe%2Bminimum%2Bwage&ei=s1TBU9PYJIqxyATLj4HoBg&usg=AFQjCNF1__rd2iZKL3tVc-6MMjobQr_GeQ&bvm=bv.70810081,d.aWw" target="_blank">HERE</a> <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CC4QFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fstockbuz.net%2Farticles%2Fminimum-wage-by-state%3Fcontext%3Dcategory-Opinion&ei=s1TBU9PYJIqxyATLj4HoBg&usg=AFQjCNFO3Mvfq7XHmTob4i3-GG0LcBe9dA&bvm=bv.70810081,d.aWw" target="_blank">HERE</a> <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDQQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fstockbuz.net%2Farticles%2Flist%2Ftag%2Fminimum%2Bwage%2Bmyths&ei=s1TBU9PYJIqxyATLj4HoBg&usg=AFQjCNHSQaE2SEdBfzh7DmZ71ieU5yaapw&bvm=bv.70810081,d.aWw" target="_blank">HERE</a> and <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDoQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fstockbuz.net%2Farticles%2Flow-wage-job-creation-persists&ei=s1TBU9PYJIqxyATLj4HoBg&usg=AFQjCNEttknJ1hsbe5Z0q3bkFtuP9kAoBw&bvm=bv.70810081,d.aWw" target="_blank">HERE</a> just to name a few. </p>
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<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290864?profile=original"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290864?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"></a>Recent surveys also show that states which have raised their minimum wage, have seen job expansion (see left - click to enlarge.</p>
<p>With this, low and behold, their consumer spending went up, small business grew and jobless rates fell. Just checkout the links above for evidence. So much for the fear mongering out there. Job killers? Nonsense.</p>
<p>Raising the Federal minimum wage would also save the government <strong>millions</strong> each year in food stamps, housing assistance, etc. as the current minimum level places workers beneath the poverty level. Ending an obvious area of corporate welfare; pure and simple.</p>
<p>Oh, btw, with higher minimum wage, it opens the doors to higher inflation being tolerated. *wink wink* Markets love to inflate their way out of recessions. Just food for thought.</p>
<p>As more and more states are embracing a higher minimum wage, I believe we will see an increase in consumer spending overall. If only Congress would listen but with midterms in November, you know that's not likely to occur.</p>
<p><img style="width: 351px; height: 350px; background-color: #ffffff;" src="http://ww3.hdnux.com/photos/30/32/51/6400634/6/622x350.jpg" class="mainImage"></p>
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<p>Image courtesy of <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/FINAL_minimum_wage_2014-03.jpg" target="_blank">ThinkProgress</a></p></div>