gold - What We're Reading - StockBuz2024-03-29T09:27:19Zhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/feed/tag/gold2020 Concensus Predictionshttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/2020-concensus-predictions2020-01-04T15:36:51.000Z2020-01-04T15:36:51.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>The Iran conflict notwithstanding, Mr. Market will do it's best to reassure you that everything will be fine. Only time will tell but I personally, would not want to enter any new positions here unless you're a daytrader. Not at 20x forward earnings already baked in. Watch the next plank of earning reports. Hedge if you are long any name...........except gold that is. I have a target of $1700 in a wave five count before a correction.</p>
<p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/3801318685?profile=RESIZE_930x" target="_blank"><img class="align-center" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/3801318685?profile=RESIZE_710x" alt="3801318685?profile=RESIZE_710x" width="710" /></a> </p></div>Larry Williams On Crude Oil And Gold Bugshttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/larry-williams-on-crude-oil-and-gold-bugs2016-06-03T18:51:22.000Z2016-06-03T18:51:22.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div>Tipping the hat to member GT. We haven't seen Larry Williams in such a long time.
<p><iframe scrolling="no" src="http://finance.yahoo.com/video/crude-calls-where-exactly-oil-052851624.html?format=embed" allowfullscreen="true" mozallowfullscreen="true" webkitallowfullscreen="true" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" height="360" width="640"></iframe></p>
</div>This One Map Sums Up the Economy of the Middle Easthttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/this-one-map-sums-up-the-economy-of-the-middle-east2016-05-12T19:25:08.000Z2016-05-12T19:25:08.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a target="_blank" href="http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/most-valuable-exports-middle-east.jpg"><img class="align-full" src="http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/most-valuable-exports-middle-east.jpg?width=750" width="750" /></a>We’ll start with the obvious: the number one export for many countries here is crude oil or related petroleum products. Middle Eastern countries made up a significant portion of global oil export revenues during 2015 with shipments valued at $325 billion or 41.3% of global crude oil exports.</p>
<p>Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iran, and Oman were all among the top 15 exporters of crude oil in 2015. Russia and Kazakhstan, countries on the Central Asian part of the map, were also members of that same group.</p>
<p>Regimes in the region found that there were many other corollary benefits from this economic might. Unrest could be stifled by rising wealth, and these countries would also have more influence than they otherwise would in global affairs. Saudi Arabia is a good example in both cases, though a major driver of Saudi influence has been <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/animation-oil-imports-to-u-s-shifted-15-years/">slipping in recent years</a>.</p>
<h2 style="margin-top: 0;">Outside of Oil</h2>
<p>Aside from exports of oil, there are some other interesting subtleties to this map. One of the most advanced economies in the region, Israel, is not dependent on oil exports at all. The country has had to find other ways to create value in the global market and its three major exports include electronics and software, cut diamonds, and pharmaceuticals.</p>
<p>War-torn Afghanistan, which is not a significant producer of petroleum on the world market, gets the majority of its export revenue from different natural resource. Opium is Afghanistan’s most valuable cash crop, and opiates such as opium, morphine, and heroin are its largest export. Fetching an estimated value of $3 billion at border prices, it was estimated to make up <a href="https://www.congress.gov/crec/2016/03/15/modified/CREC-2016-03-15-pt1-PgH1349-2.htm">about 15%</a> of the country’s GDP equivalent in 2013.</p>
<p>Lastly, countries on the map without oil wealth tend to be less influential on the world stage from a geopolitical perspective. Armenia, for example, mainly exports pig iron, unwrought copper, and nonferrous metals and is the world’s 138th largest exporter by dollar value, ranked in between Jamaica and Swaziland. Surrounded geographically by countries that Yerevan considers hostile, Armenia has <a href="https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russia-tightens-its-hold-armenia">increasingly turned to Russia</a> for its support.</p>
<p>Courtesy of <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/map-sums-economy-middle-east/" target="_blank">VisualCapitalist</a></p>
</div>Gold Shrugs Off 'Armageddon'http://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/gold-shrugs-off-armageddon2015-07-02T13:20:12.000Z2015-07-02T13:20:12.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>This was the week Greece inched closest to chaos, as a bank holiday and a technical default caused markets around the world to erupt in turmoil. They recovered somewhat Tuesday, and futures looked stronger <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-30/euro-holds-drop-as-greece-misses-imf-payment-while-gold-advances">Wednesday morning</a>, but on Monday, the NASDAQ Composite Index lost 2.4 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 2.09 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.95 percent. Volatility exploded, as the <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-29/worldwide-stock-volatility-soars-as-sleepy-vix-awakens-on-greece">Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index</a> surged 35 percent, its biggest increase in two years, to 18.85. </p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291156?profile=original"><img class="align-right" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291156?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="400"></a>One would imagine that such a scenario might be constructive for gold. It has been called the best measure of fear, the only real currency, a refuge for those who plan for panic. So how is it doing these days? <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-30/sorry-gold-bulls-metal-s-best-forecaster-expects-more-declines">Spot prices</a> were soft on Monday, despite the wild volatility in equities, drifting down a few bucks from about $1,180 an ounce to about $1,176. They fell a few dollars more yesterday, and are soft Wednesday.</p>
<p>I thought gold was an investor’s best friend during Armageddon.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/the-fall-of-gold" data-web-url="http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/the-fall-of-gold" data-tout-type="quicktake" class="quicktake">The Rise and Fall of Gold</a></p>
<p>I have <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/04/the-10-rules-of-goldbuggery/" data-web-url="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/04/the-10-rules-of-goldbuggery/">kidded the goldbugs</a> over the years, but the muted response to the latest crisis is surprising, even to a precious metal skeptic. Gold simply can’t find a bid.</p>
<p>This isn't the sort of response we have come to expect from the “catastrophe metal.” Earlier this month, gold spiked to $1,202, from $1,172, raising hopes of a turnaround. The gold mavens began to dream of a new technical setup, perhaps even a resurrection of the currently <a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-10/gold-is-in-long-term-decline-while-stocks-are-in-a-bull-market">deceased trend</a>. There were renewed whispers about $5,000 price targets.</p>
<p>And then … nothing.</p>
<p>I have been writing critically about gold since it peaked in 2011. Its story has become an <a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-01-07/10-reasons-the-gold-bugs-lost-their-shirts">object lesson</a> in how to manage your positions without letting emotion get the better of you.</p>
<p>Why is gold no longer responding to global catastrophes? Nobody knows for sure, but a few different theories might help to explain its behavior in the most recent crisis:</p>
<p>1) The old <a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-02/the-gold-fairy-tale-fails-again">narrative</a> has failed. Without a new and improved rationale, buyers aren't motivated to accumulate more gold.</p>
<p>2) The U.S. economy has slowly improved, and much of the rest of the world is healing, too.</p>
<p>3) Other asset classes have been far more productive and rewarding investments in the last five years.</p>
<p>The failure of the classic gold narrative, recounted in <a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-02/the-gold-fairy-tale-fails-again">great detail</a> last year, is one explanation. The storyline was essentially a clever sales pitch filled with specific frightening details -- the Fed was going to cause hyperinflation, the dollar would collapse, and so on. All of this proved to be false.</p>
<p>Further reducing enthusiasm for gold is the gradual improvement of the U.S. economy. Despite forecasts of imminent collapse, the major economic data -- including employment, wages, spending, housing, autos and consumer sentiment -- have all trended higher over the last five years. Tales of an impending depression were greatly exaggerated.</p>
<p>Then there are other asset classes. U.S stocks are up 167 percent over the last 5 years. China’s stock market, despite the recent 20 percent drop, is still up almost 10 percent for the year, and it has been on fire the last 2 years.</p>
<p>Each of these is a possible explanation for the lack of response to the Greek crisis. Perhaps a <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/greece-bailout-compromise-bid-faces-resistance-on-trust-deficit">default</a> to the International Monetary Fund is no big deal, and gold has no reason to rally.</p>
<p>Regardless, gold seems to going nowhere fast. Feel free to send me an <a href="mailto:britholtz3@bloomberg.net" data-web-url="mailto:britholtz3@bloomberg.net">e-mail</a> explaining how wrong and stupid I am. I have an archive of all the messages warning me that gold would teach me a lesson in humility. “You’ll see” these e-mails smugly assure me, “your comeuppance will be here any day now.” My plan was to respond to each on its fifth-year anniversary with a chart showing the performance of gold versus all other asset classes and the details of how much money has been lost.</p>
<p>What once seemed like a snarky and amusing idea just looks cruel today. </p>
<p>Gold teaches the careful observer many lessons -- about narratives, emotion, managing positions, leverage, one-way, can’t miss trades, the efficiency of markets, and story-tellers with product for sale. This is why you should never ever drink the Kool-Aid.</p>
<p>Astute traders ignore these lessons at their own risk.</p>
<p>Courtesy of <a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-01/gold-shrugs-off-armageddon" target="_blank">Ritholtz @ BloombergView</a></p></div>Bulls Must Be Patienthttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/bulls-must-be-patient2015-04-26T21:19:59.000Z2015-04-26T21:19:59.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>Things rising now are for the most part due to those (few) who see better earnings ahead, an earnings beat or rising on the struggling dollar........while peers get a definitely smaller bid....or none.  It's a struggle.  You'll notice more losing trades recently as markets are searching out the "good".  Some are talking recession (I don't buy that) while others struggle to find a way to get "through" the soft patch; waiting for 2016.  </p>
<p>In futures, volume has dropped off the cliff overnight.  It's amazing (and worth noting).</p>
<p>One things that's stood out for me is the increase in dividends and buybacks.  Yes, there's been an increase and <em>new ones</em> begun while O&G cut theirs.  Isn't it interesting how the market will do whatever it can to keep people in stocks.  Just sayin'.</p>
<p>AMZN is leading the Nasdaq with AAPL reporting this week but MRVL just announced a much <a href="http://www.thestreet.com/story/13126159/1/trade-ideas-marvell-technology-group-mrvl-is-todays-post-market-laggard-stock.html" target="_blank">lower 2015</a> than previously believed so computers seem a weak area.  Spot plays remain such as SNE who just raised their guidance again; second time in three months thanks to <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/25/us-sony-outlook-idUSKBN0NG04N20150425?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews" target="_blank">Playstation</a> sales   Pay attention to those tickers inside ETFs as sector leaders.  We need more of them to break higher on good news, or we fail.  Areas of curiosity are as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>SMH is that a right shoulder just been capped?</li>
<li>IYT stopped at the 50d and 100d?  If I were a short, that's where I'd be selling.</li>
<li>Gold and silver:  In large H&ST?  Working on right shoulders now?</li>
</ul>
<p>Fact though is many are betting <em>against</em> the U.S. Dollar now.  Many such as <a href="http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2015/April/Webinar/15-04-23-GGF-Webinar-Recording.php?inf_contact_key=1b5e2d21b5c15d9e6b5fc475d7150979e5fa98617e83cfe6cecad693ab414384" target="_blank">GannGlobal</a> are praying the dollar continues to weaken - and they're betting on commodities to benefit.</p>
<p>The COT (Commitment of Trader) <a href="http://t.co/IXF4l7nGT9" target="_blank">in USD</a> reflects that speculators have been taking profits this month but large traders are (for the most part) still heavily long.  I imagine it just comes down to <em>how fast</em> we'll see improvements in economic numbers overseas.  It certainly will be interesting.</p>
<p>The market is forever looking <em>forward</em> for reasons to rise.  Are there enough?</p>
<p></p>
<p></p>
</div>Random Noteshttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/random-notes2015-02-19T14:32:40.000Z2015-02-19T14:32:40.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>Life has intervened of late however I felt I would post my random thoughts viewing my port yesterday:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Russia is still working. RSX at it’s 100d today. I will add more if it comes back to the 50d <a href="http://screencast.com/t/Eh88iqLP" target="_blank">http://screencast.com/t/Eh88iqLP </a>  Long hold, definitely.  Throw it in a drawer and forget about it.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Buffet lowered his XOM stake and bought DE.  DE Monthly sure looks like its coiled up for something. Buffet obviously thinks new all time highs <a href="http://screencast.com/t/rlyFa0yzLeb" target="_blank">http://screencast.com/t/rlyFa0yzLeb</a>  DE earnings this Friday bmo. I'd be long common and get put protection.  Buy or add on any selloff.  Daily view, bouncing off that 50% fib (to me) equals good chance it wants to challenge/break the high <a href="http://screencast.com/t/oEgnCfo0SJg" target="_blank">http://screencast.com/t/oEgnCfo0SJg</a> </p>
</li>
<li>
<p>I still like the consumer stapes sector here. XLP or one of its components. They come into seasonal demand next month thru Summer.   I'm already long PEP and KMB as mentioned here previously in Chat.  For a list of XLP components, visit <a href="http://etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf_holdings.php?s=XLP" target="_blank">http://etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf_holdings.php?s=XLP </a></p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Gold/silver I’m still short GLD and will stay there as long as equities are still in an uptrend and we have no inflation (much less seasonal demand).  The trend is your friend until it’s not.  Lots of GLD puts purchased today although it’s near term oversold.  Some are looking for the bear market in precious metals to end here.  I am not one of them.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>3D still radio active as far as I’m concerned.  Air still coming out of that momo area.  I remain short SSYS and see no reason to cover.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Covered my remaining YY short yesterday as Benzinga pointed out their “alleged” 5 years growth predictions.  Just don’t have time to babysit that one.</p>
</li>
<li>I still do not believe that crude oil has bottomed yet.  I'm still staying away from oil and gas names and have discussed "why" in previous posts.</li>
<li>
<p>GannGlobal is out with video #9 in a long series of what they feel will be major moves  They cover bonds, stocks and commodities.  Feel free to check them out  <a href="https://mail.aol.com/webmail-std/en-us/suite">https://mail.aol.com/webmail-std/en-us/suite#</a></p>
</li>
</ul>
</div>Gold Losing Its Lusterhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/gold-losing-its-luster2015-02-06T16:20:00.000Z2015-02-06T16:20:00.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291205?profile=original"><img class="align-right" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291170?profile=RESIZE_320x320" width="300"></a>I'm back from Illinois after "life intervened" and I rushed out the door and gold has done exactly what I felt it would do. In this <a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/gld-weekly-update" target="_self">previous post</a> I felt that the 100 week SMA would pose a resistance and if you think about it, it makes complete sense.</p>
<ul>
<li>From a season standpoint, gold doesn't have much demand until last Summer when Indian festival and wedding season kicks in followed by jewelry gift giving as the Winter holidays approach. (see <a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/gold-seasonality?context=category-Seasonality" target="_blank">seasonal chart</a>)</li>
<li>Inflation is very low = no need to hedge with gold</li>
<li>The stock market is challenging new highs. When equities are doing well, not to mention the killer strong U.S. dollar, again there's no need to hedge risk with gold.</li>
</ul>
<p>For all you gold bugs out there, dude, be a patient investor and wait for smart entries.</p>
<p>My guess is that gold will take out the low which has been tested three times and we'll see lower pricing. For those who want to place bets on gold falling, I would recommend $GLL or $DGZ however beware; they are thinly traded so exits may not be as simple as some would prefer. Of course there are always Put options.</p>
<p>Lastly, this thesis also applies to gold/silver MINERS in my opinion. I would just stay away or look for entries to short although I do expect M&A to ramp up at some point and yes, there will be company failures as those names heavily in debt, cave in.</p>
<p>Will I want to buy it gold if it breaks the low or come late Summer? Meh, only if the stars align. There will be a time but for now, it's simply just not now. I'll let the chart tell me "when". </p></div>Swiss Referendum. A Wrench In The Works For Whomhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/swiss-referendum-a-wrench-in-the-works-for-whom2014-11-11T13:59:22.000Z2014-11-11T13:59:22.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a target="_blank" href="http://blog.variantperception.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/blogimage12.png"><img class="align-left" src="http://blog.variantperception.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/blogimage12-300x197.png?width=300" width="300" /></a>As polls continue to swing around ahead of the Swiss gold referendum on 30<sup>th</sup> November, we expect increased volatility in the FX and gold market.  After the implementation of the EURCHF floor, gold’s share of the SNB balance sheet has fallen to 7.5% from around 30% in 2007 (top chart).  The SNB has already pointed out the untenable nature of the peg should the referendum pass, but the impact on the gold market would also be significant.  Taking the current balance sheet of 522bn CHF and spot gold prices, the requirement to hold at least 20% of assets in gold would necessitate buying 1,800 tonnes of gold over 5 years.  Total global production in 2013 was 2,982 tonnes, thus the SNB would need to buy at least 10% of the annual production every year for the next 5 years.</p>
<p>The bottom chart shows the latest composition of the SNB’s FX reserves.  The requirement to buy gold will necessitate selling reserves, mainly EUR (which makes up 45% of all reserves).  Should these euro selling flows come to pass, it will weigh heavily on the currency.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Courtesy of  <a href="http://blog.variantperception.com/2014/11/10/swiss-gold-referendum-a-spanner-in-the-works" target="_blank">VariantPerception</a></p>
</div>Gold Bulls Take Carehttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/gold-bulls-take-care2014-07-19T23:53:30.000Z2014-07-19T23:53:30.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290793?profile=original"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290793?profile=original" width="271"></a>I can’t tell you that gold is a bad investment. Even after the recent plunge, if you bought gold in 2004, your investment would have <a href="http://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html" title="" rel="external">earned</a> you an annualized rate of about 10.4 percent, after accounting for inflation. That is darned impressive. If you bought in 1994, it would have earned about 3.9 percent per year -- not too shabby. Even if you bought all the way back in 1984, you would have earned 1.8 percent in real terms. (Of course, this assumes that shadowstats.com is <a href="http://azizonomics.com/2013/06/01/the-trouble-with-shadowstats/" title="" rel="external">wrong</a>, and that inflation hasn’t been massively understated.)</p>
<p>In addition to delivering decent long-term returns, gold has been a way to spread or offset investment risk. As my co-blogger Yichuan Wang <a href="http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.jp/2013/08/what-determines-return-on-gold.html" title="" rel="external">showed</a> last year, gold’s return is somewhat negatively correlated with interest rates, so that a bet on gold is to some degree a bet on lower rates. This is actually the prediction of some old economic <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/treasuries-tips-and-gold-wonkish/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0" title="" rel="external">models</a>, which also indicate that gold should have a positive rate of return over the long term. But a lot of the variance in the price of gold isn't explained by such factors, meaning that some small amount of gold is a valuable addition to any well-diversified portfolio.</p>
<p>But there are two big words of caution with respect to gold. The first is that you shouldn’t believe the standard story for why gold will go up. The second is that you should be very wary of websites and media outlets that constantly push you to buy gold.</p>
<p>The standard story for why you should buy gold is that it’s a hedge against the inherent weakness of the fiat money system. Unfortunately, it isn’t. For example, gold is a poor hedge against inflation. The correlation is <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/gold-vs-inflation/" title="" rel="external">very weak</a>. Remember that gold had its huge bull run in the 2000s and a long slide in the '80s…but inflation was higher in the '80s than in the 2000s!</p>
<p>A more speculative and extreme version of the story is that the whole fiat money system is destined for collapse, and that after this happens we’ll go back to using gold as money. If that did happen, you’d want to own a lot of gold at that moment. Unfortunately, there are some big problems with this story, too. Technology has advanced to the point where we can use things like bitcoin instead of heavy, easy-to-steal physical commodities like gold. And if civilization collapsed to the point where we couldn’t even use computers anymore, I’d advise you to invest in guns, ammunition, seeds and antibiotics instead of gold.</p>
<p>A bigger problem with the gold story is the question of why you should expect it to earn a good <em>return</em>. For gold’s price to keep rising steadily due to the failure of the fiat money system, it has to be the case that more and more people will steadily realize that the story is true. So a bet on this gold story is a bet that your macro perspective is way, way ahead of the macro perspectives of most other investors. That’s a highly speculative, risky bet.</p>
<p>So you should beware of media outlets that constantly push this story on you. The most important such website is probably Zero Hedge. If you read Zero Hedge, you’ll see this story about gold and fiat money being promoted <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-30/gold-time-universal-deceit" title="" rel="external">again</a> and <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-28/friday-humor-top-ten-reasons-why-fiat-currency-superior-gold" title="" rel="external">again</a> and <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-11/planned-chaos-why-fiat-money-large-scale-fraud-system" title="" rel="external">again</a>, often mixed with a healthy dose of political <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-21/guest-post-statist-thugs-and-rocks-they-crawl-out-under" title="" rel="external">ideology</a> and references to “<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/attacking-austrian-economics" title="" rel="external">Austrian economics</a>.”</p>
<p>If you actually take Zero Hedge’s constant gold-flogging to heart, you could lose a lot of money. Since gold hit a peak in 2011, it has lost about 33 percent of its value in real terms. Zero Hedge kept touting gold all the way down. For example, in November 2011, Zero Hedge ran <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-over-eur-1300-way-%E2%80%98infinity%E2%80%99-eurozone-contagion" title="" rel="external">an article</a> saying that gold could be “on its way to infinity.” In March 2012, Zero Hedge <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/stay-long-gold" title="" rel="external">urged</a> its readers to “stay long gold.” An October 2012 <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-02/eric-sprott-do-western-central-banks-have-any-gold-left" title="" rel="external">article</a> made the same recommendation. As the price fell, Zero Hedge <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/physical-silver-surges-record-30-premium-over-spot-backwardation" title="" rel="external">assured us</a> that the collapse was only in “paper” gold, not the physical commodity. Needless to say, if you took Zero Hedge’s advice at any of these points, you would have lost a lot of money.</p>
<p>Now, if the gold crash is only temporary, and someday gold heads toward infinity, then losing money on paper is no problem…unless, of course, you have to sell to cover retirement expenses or pay some medical bills.</p>
<p>A lot of finance people seem to treat macro stories, like the one Zero Hedge pushes, as entertainment rather than actionable information. That’s a healthy attitude. And it’s true that Zero Hedge occasionally does some excellent reporting, or publishes other <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-16/biases-biases-everywhere" title="" rel="external">good</a> information. So maybe you can read the site just for those tidbits, and either ignore or just smile indulgently at the huge volume of gold-flogging politics-tinged macro-propaganda that the site hurls at you day after day. But then you’re like one of those rare people who really does read Playboy magazine for the articles.</p>
<p>Zero Hedge is still <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-21/flooded-gold-smuggling-indias-new-cabinet-prepares-lift-gold-capital-controls" title="" rel="external">pushing</a> gold. It’s still <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-05/austrian-economics-vs-clueless-trolls" title="" rel="external">pushing</a> Austrian economics. But should you be listening? Only if you’re very good at separating bedtime stories from reality.</p>
<p>Courtesy of <a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-16/gold-dreamers-face-harsh-reality" target="_blank">BloombergView</a></p>
<p>Full disclosure I have been long SLV and GLD (<a href="http://stockbuz.net/articles/seasonal-demand-trades-june-2014?context=category-Seasonality" target="_self">recommended in early June</a>) however this was for seasonal demand purposes. A partial has already been taken and I remain longer term bearish on the shiny metal.</p></div>I'm Not Insane, No, Maybehttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/im-not-insane-no-maybe2014-06-19T15:11:53.000Z2014-06-19T15:11:53.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>For all you doubters out there, yes I have out my pompoms on the move in gold and silver this week. You scoffed in <a href="http://stockbuz.net/articles/all-that-shines-gold-and-silver?context=category-Commodities" target="_self">March</a> when I said a right shoulder could be formed. Then again chuckled in <a href="http://stockbuz.net/articles/gold-sticking-with-it?context=category-Commodities" target="_self">April</a> and <a href="http://stockbuz.net/articles/weekend-reads-may-3rd-4th?context=tag-gld" target="_self">May 3rd</a> but I ask you who's laughing now? Already I'm seeing tweets of a possible H&SB and I'm comfortably long SLV calls, enjoying the sunshine. Scoff all you wish you financial gurus. Charts don't lie; people do.</p>
<p>This daily for GLD and SLV is intriguing, showing both breaking out of falling wedges (they should test support which would be great to get in or add more shares or calls).</p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290835?profile=original"><img class="align-center" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290762?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"><br></a></p>
<p><a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/gold-seasonality?context=category-Seasonality" target="_self">Gold seasonal demand</a> doesn't actually kick in until late Summer for festival season in India, unless you're a believer of getting in early. Silver does see some <a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/silver-seasonality?context=category-Seasonality" target="_self">season demand</a> in the Summer due to coin manufacturing BUT these two could also be signalling some fear in the equity market topping. Of course this could also be nothing more than short covering (inflation hedge?) but it is what it is Bullish. The weekly charts below show definite divergence and GLD appears to be forming a <em>higher</em> swing low here. <strong>Obviously I'm not the only one buying here. </strong>The H&SB thesis is being replaced with double and triple bottoms but silver broke it's 3rd trend line from the 2011 high and adds to my conviction. Many a trader believes you buy the break of a third trend line. My buy signal was triggered based on the divergences. Yes, this requires a leap of faith however your stop would be below this last swing low for great risk/reward overall. I am long SLV Sept19 calls and will be adding gold next week.</p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290803?profile=original"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290803?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a></p>
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<p></p></div>Seasonal Demand Trades June 2014http://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/seasonal-demand-trades-june-20142014-06-01T21:39:07.000Z2014-06-01T21:39:07.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>Seasonal demand is just what it sounds like. What seasons certain things see higher demand such as natural gas for A/C and heating or gold for jewelry manufacturing and sales. With that in mind I thought I'd flip through our <a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/Seasonality" target="_self">Seasonal Charts</a> for hints of possible trades here and in the months approaching. My unscientific belief has been that larger players begin to buy long futures contracts <em>before</em> the season hits so I begin to watch for divergences and support in charts. Click on the charts below for a better view. Let's take a look:</p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/consumer-staples-seasonality?context=category-Seasonality"><img class="align-left" style="padding: 10px;" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290688?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"></a><a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/consumer-staples-seasonality" target="_self"></a></p>
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<p><a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/consumer-staples-seasonality" target="_self">Consumer Staples</a> Which can be traded via $XLP or one of it's components are items which consumers feel they cannot do without. They're considered non-cyclical, meaning that they are always in demand, no matter how well the economy is performing (or not performing). Think diapers $KMB, personal hygiene $PG, discounters like $WMT, beverages such as $KO, cigarettes $MO and $PM, pharmacies such as $WAG and $CVS. There are many other names, but you get the picture. They're slow but steady growers with dividends which heat up in the Summer and ramp until end of year. The type of thing yo can buy at the 20d SMA but back up the truck at the 200d. </p>
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<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290707?profile=original"><img class="align-left" style="padding: 10px;" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290707?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="348"></a><a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/nat-gas-seasonality?context=category-Seasonality" target="_self"></a></p>
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<p><a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/nat-gas-seasonality?context=category-Seasonality" target="_self">Natural Gas</a> Yes as much as I hate to think it, nat gas demand increases as the Summer heats up. It's one to watch the weather channel however. Mild temps and it will fall like a rock. Extreme heat and you have a trade as the shorts are squeezed. I wouldn't recommend investing via $UNG (very flawed) but rather prefer $FCG or one of it's components.</p>
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<p><a target="_self" href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/30-year-bond-seasonality"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290735?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"></a></p>
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<p><a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/30-year-bond-seasonality" target="_self">Bonds</a> Whether it's the 2yr, 5yr or 30yr (shown) bonds or flight to safety tends to ramp up Spring through end of year when tax receipts are into the government via income taxes and "sell in May, go away" begins. idk if I'd chase them here but on a pullback, maybe for a trade. $BND is just one of the numerous bond ETFs out there as well as the well-known 20yr treasury$TLT</p>
<p>They are TRADES right now - not investments. Stay nimble.</p>
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<p><a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/corn-seasonality-1?context=category-Seasonality" target="_self">Corn</a> and <a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/soybean-oil-seasonality?context=category-Seasonality" target="_self">Soybean</a> shorts. Once they're in the ground, seasonal demand drops through Fall. $JJG and $CORN are two ways to short grains although thinly traded.</p>
<p><a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/crude-oil-seasonality?context=category-Seasonality" target="_self">Crude Oil</a> and <a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/gasoline-seasonality?context=category-Seasonality" target="_self">Gasoline </a> longs. We're talking Summer driving season, then a lull when the kiddies return to school but then a ramp again into the Fall/Winter holidays. We've already recommended <a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/uso-breakout?context=category-Long+Setups" target="_self">long $USO</a> and will most likely be adding to that position this week. Stay tuned.</p>
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<p><a target="_self" href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/gold-seasonality?context=category-Seasonality"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290757?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"></a>Lastly we have everyone's favorite <a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/gold-seasonality?context=category-Seasonality" target="_self">Gold</a> which catches a season bid going into India's festive wedding season however it should be noted that purchases of the yellow metal <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2014/05/20/indias-gold-demand-falls-in-first-quarter/" target="_blank">fell in Q1 by 26%</a> supposedly due to government restrictions and tariffs. Still India is #2 to China in gold importing and with China's slowdown, one has to wonder if India will come out on top in 2014. </p>
<p>$GLD is deeply oversold; maybe a short covering rally? Watch the charts for a signal.</p></div>Weekend Reads May 3rd-4thhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/weekend-reads-may-3rd-4th2014-05-03T20:46:01.000Z2014-05-03T20:46:01.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><ul>
<li><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290581?profile=original"><img class="align-right" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290581?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"></a><a href="http://blog.stocktwits.com/investors-say-bottom-is-in-for-gold/" target="_blank">Stocktwits:</a> "investor say the bottom is in for gold"</li>
<li>Hey, wait a minute. Didn't StockBuz say watch for a gold (GLD) weekly right shoulder to form back in <a href="http://stockbuz.net/articles/all-that-shines-gold-and-silver?context=category-Commodities" target="_self">March</a> and early <a href="http://stockbuz.net/articles/gold-sticking-with-it?context=category-Commodities" target="_self">April</a>? Even posting on the <a href="http://stockbuz.net/charts/inverse-gold-miners" target="_self">gold miners here</a>. We're ahead of the herd once again......<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><strong>maybe.</strong></em></span> (click image to enlarge) At least risk is minimal; stop below $120</li>
<li><a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/sina" title="Sina Corporation">SINA</a> pre-announced an earnings beat but also announced it has <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/pr/9784973-sina-announces-receipt-of-government-notices" target="_blank">received two notices</a> from Chinese regulators stating its "License for Online Transmission of Audio-Visual Programs would be revoked due to certain unhealthy and indecent content from third-parties or by users" on Sina.com and its affiliated online literature site. Ouch!</li>
<li><span class="light_text bullets">JPMorgan becomes the first to warn on trading revenues in Q2, <a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303678404579538162442521646?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection&mg=reno64-wsj" target="_blank">expecting markets revenue to slip</a> 20% after declining 17% in Q1.</span></li>
<li><span class="light_text bullets">AAPL wins a Federal jury decision again Samsung on smart phone patients but it's a victory for Samsung with less than 10% sought, actually being awarded ($120m vs. $2bil). <span class="light_text bullets">The jury <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-03/apple-wins-120-million-from-samsung-in-smartphone-trial.html" target="_blank">rejected</a> Apple’s claim on the patent that enables updating of applications while other features of the phone are in use. Apple also lost its claim over a patent that allows a user to perform a universal search for information with a single click. One would think Federal jury's are tired of all the lawsuits.</span></span></li>
<li><span class="light_text bullets">HSBC says o<span class="light_text bullets">ffshore wind power is <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-01/offshore-wind-to-grow-6-fold-aiding-suzlon-vestas-hsbc.html" target="_blank">set to grow six-fold by 2020</a>, benefiting turbine makers including Vestas Wind Systems (<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/vwdry" title="Vestas Wind Systems A/S ADR">VWDRY</a>, <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/vwsyf" title="Vestas Wind Systems A/S">VWSYF</a>) and Gamesa Tecnologica (<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/gctaf" title="Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologica S.A.">GCTAF</a>). I'm sure the Koch brothers will push for a surcharge on those as well. (Oklahoma recently approved a surcharge for solar users) <em>Puhlease.</em></span></span></li>
</ul>
<p></p></div>Gold: Sticking With Ithttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/gold-sticking-with-it2014-04-05T17:07:33.000Z2014-04-05T17:07:33.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290529?profile=original"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290529?profile=RESIZE_480x480" width="375"></a>It may not be a popular view but then again, when everyone's on one side, doesn't the market tend to do the opposite of what's expected? It seems the Elliott Wavers of the blogisphere are calling for gold to head lower here but I stand by my call of last week that the low will hold and we'll see a head-and-shoulders bottom (right shoulder) forming here. Silver and all of the miners reflect a similar pattern, as posted here at StockBuz last week. The weekly even resembles a possible double bottom. Wouldn't that be sweet! At the very least, down side risk is defined (last weeks low) but with fear in the market and heavy selling continued after the first of the month, utilities (safe haven) are already hitting a new high and I believe flight to precious metals will continue as well. At least in the near term. Not a long/hold.</p></div>Daily Readshttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/daily-reads-172014-04-03T14:30:45.000Z2014-04-03T14:30:45.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><ul>
<li>Schwab says HFT is a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/schwab-on-high-frequency-trading-2014-4" target="_blank">"Cancer</a>" that must be addressed.  "<em>The primary principle behind our markets has always <a target="_blank" href="http://www.trbimg.com/img-53376374/turbine/la-fi-obamacare-deadline-20140328-g"><img class="align-right" src="http://www.trbimg.com/img-53376374/turbine/la-fi-obamacare-deadline-20140328-g?width=437" width="437" /></a> been that no one should carry an unfair advantage. That simple but fundamental principle is being broken</em>." When big players such as Schwab begin to speak out, one must wonder if this will gain attention now.</li>
<li>GT sold <span class="cometchat_chatboxmessagecontent">some AMZN 360/365 bear call spreads</span>.  Still feel that's a HST</li>
<li>Citibank $C reports<a href="http://zeenews.india.com/business/news/international/citigroup-reports-fraud-in-mexico-unit-lowers-2013-results_95372.html/citigroup-reports-fraud-in-mexico-unit-lowers-2013-results_95372.html" target="_blank">$400M in fraudulent loans</a> out of their Mexico subsidiary; lowered profit forecast. </li>
<li>Kos is calling bearish head-and-shoulder tops in a few ETFs.  Find out which in our <a href="http://empowerinvestors.ning.com/charts" target="_self">charts section</a>.</li>
<li>Corporate profits continue to show strength - this for the long term investor <a href="http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2014/03/corporate-profits-continue-to-impress.html" target="_blank">Califia Beach Pundit</a></li>
<li>Using <a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-how-covered-california-is-measuring-up-20140330-dto,999563,1834667.htmlstory" target="_blank">California as a proxy</a>, enrollment in ACA has been good with the exception of Latinos and to a lesser extent young (healthy) Americans.</li>
<li>After the close, CME lowered margin rqmts. on <a href="http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv14-138.pdf" target="_blank">crude oil, gold, silver and coal.</a>.  Seriously?  As if we need higher gasoline to jeopardize the recovery?  Well, inflation <em>would</em> help speed the recovery.  We shall see.</li>
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</div>Hump Day Readinghttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/hump-day-reading2014-04-02T14:11:21.000Z2014-04-02T14:11:21.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290510?profile=original"><img class="align-right" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290510?profile=RESIZE_320x320" width="300"></a></p>
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<li>For all the worrying about weather impacting job creation, Trim Tabs say <strong>real time tax receipt data</strong> (allegedly more reliable than BLS data) suggests that the economy has been picking up steam. <a href="http://247wallst.com/economy/2014/04/02/trimtabs-shows-higher-payrolls-growth-ahead-of-labor-department/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2FRyNm+%2824%2F7+Wall+St.%29" target="_blank">24/7WallStreet</a></li>
<li>A 8.2% magnitude earthquake overnight off the coast of Chile with a 2 meter tsunami. Supposedly mining operations have not been affected buy you try to tell that to silver and gold this morning. They're not buying it (so far)</li>
<li>Interesting metrics from <a href="http://blog.flurry.com/bid/109749/Apps-Solidify-Leadership-Six-Years-into-the-Mobile-Revolution" target="_blank">Flurry</a> on mobile usage today. GOOG accounts for 18% of time spent by consumers which includes YouTube, while FB is 17%. Android web browsing is losing market share, going from 20% or usage down to 14%</li>
<li>Facebook apps continue to hold strength ahead of Google according to <a href="https://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2014/3/comScore_Reports_January_2014_US_Smartphone_Subscriber_Market_Share" target="_blank">Comscore data.</a>. Twitter's app was only used by 22.8% of U.S. smartphone users in January. 77.6% used Facebook's core app, and 27.5% Instagram. Five different Google apps were used by over 40% of users.</li>
<li>The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) met it's target of 7mil signups but fell very short of the 40% of young, healthy adult subscribers 18-34 needed to keep insurance premiums at bay, says <a href="http://www.gopusa.com/news/2014/03/14/healthcare-premiums-likely-to-go-up-in-2015/" target="_blank">Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius.</a> Expect rates to increase in 2015. Who's shocked here?</li>
</ul></div>Daily Readshttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/daily-reads-52014-03-14T15:57:33.000Z2014-03-14T15:57:33.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><ul>
<li>With the increase in US oil (hello Bakken), shipping black gold by rail has caused backlog in shipments of other goods across all industries forcing rail companies to scramble to expand.  The biggest loser: shippers.  Sounds like more promo for Keystone to be approved <a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304914904579437680173044774?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304914904579437680173044774.html" target="_blank">WSJ</a></li>
<li>Are you guilty or have you been there, done that?  Take a different view of those around you in the service industry and how you/we view and interact with them.  An open letter to Paul Ryan on poverty <a href="http://www.salon.com/2014/03/10/hi_im_right_here_an_open_letter_to_paul_ryan_about_poverty_and_empathy/" target="_blank">Salon</a></li>
<li>Last night after the close, CME lowered margin requirements for <a href="http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv14-107.pdf" target="_blank">Brent and WTI</a> crude oil futures.</li>
<li>Members here at StockBuz have been playing precious metals and miners; gold, silver, GDXJ (junior miners).  <a href="http://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-and-its-miners-are-breaking-out-205953" target="_blank">Investing.com</a> has noticed the move off of the lows as well.</li>
<li>The "death spiral states" talk of Democratic states leading in number of Welfare recipients (shockingly) distorts the full truth.  What else will the Koch brothers come up with next?  <a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2013/01/death-spiral-states/" target="_blank">Factcheck.org</a></li>
<li>China slowing is the biggest threat to growth currently, say 27 out of 49 of economists, as the worlds 2nd largest economy would affect all areas of the globe. <em> "There are real financial instabilities in China that pose the biggest downside risk to the global outlook," said Julia Coronado of <a href="http://quotes.wsj.com/FR/BNP" class="t-company">BNP Paribas</a>.</em> [<a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304185104579437330513248834?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304185104579437330513248834.html" target="_blank">WSJ]</a>   Add to this their already perilous financial system with shadow banking complications and housing bubble values (<a href="http://empowerinvestors.ning.com/profiles/articles/china-beware-the-ides-of-march" target="_self">written about here</a>) and you have a recipe for further stress as Chinese government officials attempt to reign in or tighten their lending.  Remember when GE couldn't get access to credit for their day-to-day operations?  Let's hope we don't see a repeat of the '07 meltdown in China.</li>
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</div>Daily Readshttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/daily-reads-2-28-142014-02-28T22:41:29.000Z2014-02-28T22:41:29.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><ul>
<li>The argument to lift the ban on crude oil exports <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/u-s-crude-oil-export-ban/" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a></li>
<li>How big oil (and Senators) are positioning at the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-11/drillers-eye-gains-from-oil-state-senators-heading-panel.html" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a></li>
<li>A 3pm gold "fix"?  This study says it began in 2004. <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-28/gold-fix-study-shows-signs-of-decade-of-bank-manipulation.html" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a></li>
<li>That's what I've been saying.  Fed may have to let inflation run hot to meet goals. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/28/us-usa-fed-idUSBREA1R19820140228" target="_blank">Reuters</a></li>
<li>Markets spooked as confirmation came of Russian troops taking over two airports in the Crimean area of the Ukraine.  UN to hold closed-door session this weekend to discuss situation. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/28/us-ukraine-crisis-un-idUSBREA1R1M920140228" target="_blank">Reuters</a></li>
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</div>Gold? There's No Seasonal Demand Stupid (and things are less bad)http://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/gold-there-s-no-seasonal-demand-stupid2013-02-17T03:00:00.000Z2013-02-17T03:00:00.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290021?profile=original"><img class="align-right" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290021?profile=RESIZE_480x480" height="182" width="342"></a>Today was a typical Saturday. I began to scan my watchlist, ran through the indexes and flipped through my favorite web pages for tidbits of stockmarket insight. At one point I noticed that in wake of yesterdays selloff in gold/silver, <em>suddenly</em> people were posting seasonal charts for gold and silver.....as if they had just been discovered. <em>Helllllo McFly.</em> No, there is no seasonal demand for the shiny stuff here. Hasn't been; move along. Economies are healing; meaning there's less of a need to hedge yourself with gold <em>and</em> bonds. With no demand and less of a flight to safety,<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-14/billionaires-soros-bacon-reduce-gold-holdings-as-prices-slump.html" target="_blank">the big boys are taking profits</a>. Again, nothing there, move along.</p>
<p>I thi<a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290057?profile=original"><img class="align-left" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290057?profile=RESIZE_480x480" height="200" width="375"></a>nk some people just stopped paying attention but world economies are <em>less bad,</em> period. While we're not out of the woods, unemployment is stabilizing. Jobs are coming back, albeit slowly and low paying...but things are no longer deteriorating. Maybe the gurus out there just didn't want their subscribers to know the secret to their approach (wink wink). Some struggled attempting to get long the shiny stuff and wait for a pop allthewhile wondering why gold wasn't skyrocketing to $2500 (as some pundits have predicted), we stood aside focusing on better areas to deploy our cash. </p>
<p>You see, we talk about seasonal demand a great deal at <a href="http://stockbuz.net" target="_self">StockBuz.net</a> using it to enter quite a few trades throughout the year; and you <span style="text-decoration: underline;">don't</span> have to trade commodity futures in order to benefit. That's why the trading Gods made ETFs. Utlizing past history, we know what the odds are of success. We know what commodity or sectors are coming into strength and make efforts to position accordingly. Fact is many a trader has cleaned up on seasonal patterns and have penned books on it's usage. Don't get too excited however; it's not the holy grail of investing <a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290078?profile=original"><img class="align-right" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290078?profile=RESIZE_320x320" width="309"></a>dear reader. Don't even go there - there is no such thing. At times it doesn't "work" if there's a change in sentiment or trend, over (or under) supply of a certain commodity due to unforeseen circumstances such as drought or worker strike and then there's those pesky, panicky news headlines (Greece is about to fail!); just to name a few. However quite often when market sentiment is right, there exists great reward when technical analysis is telling you otherwise......all because seasonal demand for a commodity (or yes, even a sector) kicks in.</p>
<p>We discussed in November/December that XLF would run for $19.50-20.00; that energy would strengthen, gasoline would run, OIH breakout and small caps to take the lead. They did. We talked about Platinum and industrials. We didn't wait for a guru to post a chart. We have a plethora of <a href="http://stockbuz.ning.com/photo/photo/slideshow?albumId=4753654:Album:24695" target="_blank">seasonal charts</a> at our disposal. We have no "gurus" with subscription fees @ StockBuz; everyone shares their knowledge. We knew the seasonals and 2013 is off to a rip roaring start. Maybe some of you need to brush up on your seasonal knowledge.....or better yet just <a href="http://stockbuz.net" target="_self">join us</a>.</p>
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<p></p></div>Precious Metals Insight - RJhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/precious-metals-insight-rj2010-03-20T13:59:28.000Z2010-03-20T13:59:28.000ZGThttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/GT<div><p><a href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290152?profile=original">RJ Insights.pdf</a><br> <br> Mining stock recommendations, observations on Dollar/Gold rallies.</p></div>