moving averages - What We're Reading - StockBuz2024-03-28T14:49:48Zhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/feed/tag/moving+averagesBear Market? Yes It Ishttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/bear-market-yes-it-is2016-01-17T21:17:03.000Z2016-01-17T21:17:03.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>The latest market selloff can be blamed on any number of things. China slowdown or a possible hard landing in China, basic profit taking after a six-year run, declining earnings, no further QE in the US, a uptick in rates in the US, weak US economy, commodity (including crude oil) collapse, weakening of 'risk' currencies due to the commodity selloff, disappearance of buybacks, dividends being lowered, strong US dollar pressuring balance sheets, bear markets in pc sales, rail fees,.........the list goes on and on. Bottom line: we need something <em>solid</em> to rally on and I fear any earnings pops will be given back. Netflix will be a good example tomorrow after the close. We simply cannot justify going higher without a catalyst.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-this-market-meltdown-isnt-a-repeat-of-2008-1452892357" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a> reminds us that this is not 2008 redux but just 'where' we bottom is open to speculation. So I'll just sit back with my hedges and wait it out. Here I'll note a few things I haven't seen plastered across the internet. </p>
<p>Although the monthly isn't complete, we already have a bear cross in major moving averages. .</p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291242?profile=original"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291242?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a></p>
<p>The 20 month moving average now becomes my "prove me wrong" area of resistance unless I hear something bullish out of the Fed.</p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291277?profile=original"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291277?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a></p>
<p>We <span style="text-decoration: underline;">decisively</span> lost the 30month EMA (the 20month now becomes resistance). By the way, did you notice the selling along the way up? Rate of Change definitely showed it as the market crawled higher. A divergence right there if you were watching.</p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291319?profile=original"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291319?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a></p>
<p>So now we watch for possible supports. Will we retrace off the 2011 low?</p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291351?profile=original"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291351?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a></p>
<p>Or something much further off the 2009 low?</p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291417?profile=original"><img class="align-full" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291417?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a></p>
<p>Of course, by the time the pundits on CNBC or elsewhere admit we're in a <a href="http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/a-bear-market-in-stocks-will-be-over-before-you-know-it/ar-BBoet4R" target="_blank">Bear market</a> defined by a correction of at least 20%, then we'll be nearing the bottom but more and more seem to be accepting that <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/16/bear-market-is-here-expect-another-15-plunge-technician.html" target="_blank">it's here.</a> Small caps who tend to perform well this time of year, are already down 22%. </p>
<p>Stay in cash or have a hedge. "Buy time" will come. You just need to sit on hands and be patient. The market's not going to disappear. Trust me.</p></div>Ribbon Study And $SPX Expansionhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/ribbon-study-and-spx-expansion2014-10-12T21:02:05.000Z2014-10-12T21:02:05.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>A Ribbon Study consists of 8 or more Simple Moving Average plots having different lengths thus forming a "ribbon". The lengths of those averages are in an arithmetic progression relation: the increment of the progression is defined by the initial and the final Moving Average lengths.</p>
<p>The way I view a moving average, especially a large one, is that is the average price of stockholders who have held since "that" point in time. So if you're looking at a 50d, it's the average price of shareholders who purchased in the last 50 days. If it's a MONTHLY moving average............NOW you're talking funds who have skin in the game and HAVE had skin in the game for months or years. I want to be one of them if I'm a long/hold investor. I want to "buy" when they buy.</p>
<p>I've always felt, that from a long/holding investing point of view, this study can also be an interesting way to view a coming expansion, after a long market consolidation. View these historical charts and give me your view. Expansion ahead or no?</p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290933?profile=original"><img class="align-center" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290933?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290955?profile=original"><img class="align-center" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290955?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291082?profile=original"><img class="align-center" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290986?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291000?profile=original"><img class="align-center" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291000?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291024?profile=original"><img class="align-center" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291024?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291054?profile=original"><img class="align-center" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1291054?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a></p></div>S&P500 Monthly Supportshttp://stockbuz.ning.com/articles/s-p500-monthly-supports2014-10-12T20:38:26.000Z2014-10-12T20:38:26.000ZStockBuzhttp://stockbuz.ning.com/members/1t2xbcvddkrir<div><p>Merely my observation of the S&P500 based on it's 20 year monthly chart. It would appear most 'dips' were bought heavily at the 20month SMA with the 20month (off the low) SMA being the line in the sand..........at least on the last two 'bubbles'.</p>
<p>The 20m (off the low) then became overhead resistance. </p>
<p>Just food for thought. I have sent an alert for SPX at both levels in an effort to "buy like the big boys". At least buying 'there' is limiting my downside risk (wink wink). We could definitely bounce before then but the MACD looks to be rolling over somewhat and let's face it; October is a tough month. I'm sincerely anticipating further volatility as even semiconductors and rails are exhibiting signs of selling. I look forward to buying cheaper; aren't you?</p>
<p><a target="_self" href="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290953?profile=original"><img class="align-center" src="http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/1290926?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024" width="750"></a></p></div>