At their inception, autos were considered speculative investments. In fact, so were railroads, the light bulb, telephone and internet. They'll never catch on. It'll be too expensive. No one will be able to afford it. There's no infrastructure for it. It'll pass. It's a FAD.
McKinsey feels "The world is on the cusp of a resource revolution".
So, is cleantech failing? In a word, no. Rather, the sector has experienced a cycle of excitement followed by high (and often inflated) expectations, disillusionment, consolidation, and then stability as survivors pick up the pieces. We’ve seen this before with other once-emerging technologies.
The shakeout is brutal—and typical. It has weeded out weaker players, making the industry as a whole more robust. Despite the rough patch, annual growth is at double-digit rates. It’s also important to look beyond financial statements. Global wind installations, for example, have soared about 25 percent a year since 2006 (exhibit). And global commercial investments in clean energy have more than quadrupled, from nearly $30 billion in 2005 to about $160 billion in 2012. Even countries with vast reserves of oil and coal—in the Middle East and Central Asia—recognize that they can’t miss out and are developing substantial programs for renewables. Meanwhile, the average real cost per oil well has doubled, and new mining discoveries have been flat, despite high investment.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), renewables already accounted for 18 percent of global consumption in 2010, and are growing faster than any other form of energy.
It's a fascinating read.
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