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Market Predictions For 2018? Bring 'Em On!

Saxo Bank has a few

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Naturally, predictions like this are more for bank PR than education but they have some value.

For one, they're a reminder that unexpected, huge and unpredictable moves happen in markets. And they happen far more often than we expect.

The thing is, they usually happen somewhere you least expect.

As for this set of predictions, let's hope this trader is you (from the report):

"World markets are increasingly full of signs and wonders, and the collapse of volatility seen across asset classes in 2017 was no exception. The historic lows in the VIX and MOVE indices are matched by record highs in stocks and real estate, and the result is a powder keg that is set to blow sky-high as the S&P 500 loses 25% of its value in a rapid, spectacular, one-off move reminiscent of 1987. A whole swathe of short volatility funds are completely wiped out and a formerly unknown long volatility trader realises a 1000% gain and instantly becomes a legend."

Courtesy of ForexLive

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tim-cook-future-of-tv-is-apps.jpg?quality=80&strip=all&w=320&width=400Apple doesn’t have a solid TV strategy yet. But CEO Tim Cook thinks he can see the writing on the wall—the much loathed cable-TV bundle is on its deathbed.

Speaking on the earnings call after Apple posted a record first quarter, Cook said (emphasis added):

The way that we participate in the changes that are going on in the media industry that I fully expect to accelerate from the cable bundle beginning to break down is, one, we started the new Apple TV a year ago, and we’re pleased with how that platform has come along. We have more things planned for it but it’s come a long way in a year, and it gives us a clear platform to build off of.

Apple is on the fourth generation of the Apple TV. It now has an app that makes recommendations across streaming-video services and has a universal search function; it is currently limited by only allowing you to find a program across a limited selection of third-party services, but it has the potential to become the online equivalent to a TV Guide

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Admin

Big Tech Lost A Boatload When Trump Killed TPP

1291359?profile=RESIZE_480x480The giant international trade deal known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership died last week. It was supposed to be the largest regional trade deal in history.

The TPP itself was a massive 30-chapter lawbook that would have freed access to markets for things like car manufacturing, data storage, online commerce, intellectual property and medicines.

Hoards of technology and media companies supported the trade deal. Google was pro TPP. As was Microsoft, Apple and Facebook. The Motion Picture Association of America supported it too. The deal would have allowed them to make it easier to store user data across borders, offer stricter copyright protections and clamp down on digital pirating.

President-elect Donald Trump positioned his opposition to the trade deal as one of the defining issues of his campaign. He compared the TPP to the North American Free Trade Agreement of the 1990s that allowed U.S. manufacturers to move jobs to Mexico.

President Obama, on the other hand, was betting on th

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Admin

The Top 10 Millenial Brands

millennial-brand-survey-chart.png

The market for U.S. millennials is expected to blossom to $1.4 trillion by 2020, according to international consulting firm Accenture. While this generation of digital natives is already a primary marketing target today, in the upcoming years millennials will make up a hefty 30% of all retail spending in the country.

However, millennials are complex and notoriously difficult to read, even for professional marketers. With values that seem to contradict one another, it’s a challenge for companies to successfully gain market share with this audience.

As millennials mature, researchers are gaining ground on the needs and wants of this generation. This week’s Chart of the Week shares data from a comprehensive survey of 3,500 millennials that were asked, without any prompt, about their favorite brands over the past three years. The results, which can be found in deeper depth here, help give us some insight as to what millennials look for in a brand.


Tech Brand Disparity

It’s likely that no

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Admin

Smartwatches Overtake Swiss Watches

1291275?profile=RESIZE_320x320According to the latest research from Strategy Analytics, global smartwatch shipments reached 8.1 million units in Q4 2015, compared with 7.9 million Swiss Watch shipments. It is the first time ever that smartwatches have outshipped Swiss watches on a global basis.

Cliff Raskind, Director at Strategy Analytics, said, “We estimate global smartwatch shipments reached 8.1 million units in Q4 2015, rising a healthy 316 percent from 1.9 million in Q4 2014. Smartwatches are growing rapidly in North America, Western Europe and Asia. Apple Watch captured an impressive 63 percent share of the global smartwatch market in Q4 2015, followed by Samsung with 16 percent. Apple and Samsung together account for a commanding 8 in 10 of all smartwatches shipped worldwide.”

Steven Waltzer, Analyst at Strategy Analytics, added, “We estimate global Swiss watch shipments reached 7.9 million units in Q4 2015, falling 5 percent from 8.3 million in Q4 2014.  Global demand for Swiss watches is slowing down, an

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Admin

How Much Wealth Accumulated In Ten Seconds

battle600.gif?width=600The numbers are astounding, and hopefully help to create perspective on the scale of technology and business.  In just 10 seconds, close to 225,000 GB of data is transferred, with over 500,000 posts on Facebook, 57,000 tweets, 46,000 searches on Google, and 2 million messages sent on WhatsApp. 

There is no question that the most profound factor affecting modern life is the ability to replicate and store data at almost no cost. This revolution in information has provided us with a wealth of benefits and possibilities for an incredibly low marginal price.

At zero cost, we can connect to a global store of all human knowledge. New apps with impressive features can cost less than a dollar, and our monthly Netflix subscriptions hardly register on our credit card statements. Meanwhile, we share our thoughts about the world with our friends and family at no cost through social networks, email, or other means of communications. This hasn’t been possible throughout human existence, and it is onl

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Admin

Apple Apps Infected. What Would Steve Jobs Do

BadAppleContractors-logo-noweb.jpg?width=200Apple has owned up to a rare incursion of malicious software into its App Store, forcing it to pull some of the most widely used mobile apps in China from the service.

Late on Sunday in California, the iPhone and iPad maker confirmed reports by security researchers who had warned that a swath of popular Chinese apps had been created using developer tools that were infected with the malware, resulting in the compromised apps.

“Hundreds of millions” of users of the popular Chinese apps were at risk of having their personal data exposed, including people who use Tencent’s WeChat mobile messaging service and ride-hailing app Didi Kuaidi, according to Palo Alto Networks, a US cyber security company.

Apple said it had removed the infected apps, which had been created with what it said was a fake version of its software for app developers, known as Xcode.

It did not explain how developers of a large number of China’s most widely used mobile services had all been infected with the same piece o

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Admin

Chinas Move Won't Help U.S. Tech Firms

China’s moves to spur its slowing economy and restore investor confidence are having an important but less obvious effect on the tech sector: Strengthening Chinese companies that already were making life difficult for U.S. rivals, many of whom have staked their growth plans on the world’s second-largest market.

The government’s surprise decision in early August to devalue China’s currency, in particular, could make it harder for U.S. companies to sell into the country by making their products more expensive to local buyers.

At the same time, a cheaper yuan makes Chinese-produced goods less costly abroad—dovetailing with government policies that have been promoting foreign sales by Chinese technology vendors.

“We see the key driver [of government action] being exports,” said Handel Jones, a consultant at International Business Strategies Inc. who has written books on China’s high-tech sector. Chinese companies “will become more aggressive.”

Once known mainly for its low-cost manufacturi

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Admin

Doubts Begin Chipping Away At The Stock Market

GRET-web-master675.jpg?width=300In the stock market, until recently, just about any news was good news.

Company earnings stumbled? Investors shrugged them off, sending shares higher. Economic growth was disappointing? So what.

But now that is changing.

Consider the recent trading in Apple, the world’s most valuable public company and a certifiable stock market darling. Apple announced third-quarter results on July 21 that were “amazing,” according to Tim Cook, its chief executive. Revenue rose 33 percent over the same period last year, and earnings per share were up 45 percent.

But investors seized on the fact that demand for the iPhone and the company’s new smartwatch didn’t meet expectations. Apple’s shares have lost 11.3 percent since then.

“I thought the break in Apple was a pretty big deal,” said Bill Fleckenstein, a veteran money manager at Fleckenstein Capital in Seattle. “They made all the numbers, but units were light. Maybe that is a precursor to what the entire tape is going to show us.”

The reaction to C

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Admin

Winners (or Losers) With Apples New Watch

applewatch1.jpg?width=300The jury's still out on Apples new watch launch, especially it's longer term demand and shortages due to two suppliers have already shown.  I thought though (thanks to SeekingAlpha) we could take a look at it's current suppliers:

  • iPhone/iPad combo chip supplier Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) is providing a Wi-Fi/Bluetooth/NFC/FM radio combo chip for the Apple Watch (NASDAQ:AAPL), according to an ABI Research teardown of the Watch's S1 chip module. As expected, NXP supplies a complementary NFC controller.
  • The teardown also uncovered a 6-axis STMicroelectronics (NYSE:STM) motion sensor (accelerometer/gyproscope). There has been some debate about whether InvenSense (NYSE:INVN) will be a motion sensor supplier for the Watch, as it is for the iPhone 6.
  • Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI) supplies a touch controller IC. Barclays reported in March ADI had scored multiple design wins to enable Apple's Force Touch pressure-based response feature (supported by the Watch) on future iPhones/iPads.
  • IDT (NASDAQ:ID

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Admin

eBays Big Step Into Advertising

When EBAY was blow torched this week after AAPL unveiled Apple Pay at their investor event on September 7th, I saw the knee-jerk fear that Apple Pay would take down PayPal as one to raise an eyebrow, however considering the possible number of iphone6 and Apple watch sales (because it won't be available on current Apple products) versus worldwide usage of PayPal, this would not something that would immediately destroy the EBAY name.  On Wednesday I jumped in on EBAY calls (cheap at that point) feeling the reaction was over done.

Booyah!  Was I glad today that I did.  Dumb luck is definitely better than no luck at all.

Not only are other market participants now beginning to question the depth of impact from Apple Pay (again only available on the new iPhone6 or Apple Watch), but it's overall security in a day and age of endless hackers when it comes to one's digital wallet replacing their plastic card and cash.

BN-EM757_ebayad_G_20140911143933.jpg?width=200Then today the news hit when EBAY announced they are set to launch an

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Admin

The Ups And Downs Of Apple Pay

1290859?profile=originalForgetting your wallet at home may no longer be a problem when picking up prescriptions or incidentals, as the nation’s biggest drugstore chain Walgreens and other major retailers partner with Apple and its new mobile payment system. Apple’s new mobile payment system — Apple Pay — could certainly make life for consumers much easier. But the move also makes the iPhone a virtually indispensable — and invaluable –piece of property that will be even more vulnerable to security risks if lost, stolen or hacked.

Walgreens, Target, Staples, McDonald’s, Sephora, Starbucks, and Groupon are among the 12 retailers to accept Apple Pay in October. The system was unveiled Sept. 9 along with the latest iPhone and the highly anticipated Apple Watch.

Apple Pay will allow consumers to pay for items using near field communication, a wireless technology that transmits payment information from the mobile device to a store’s checkout system. The SIM card in the mobile phone, which stores users’ personal in

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Admin

Amazon Growth

Jeff Bezos knows; continue to innovate, acquire and turn out new products.....or die.  Investors have rewarded the stock accordingly.  AAPL had the same growth and innovation.  When investors began to doubt, they rang the register until Tim Cook was able to convince them that all was well.  Great job Bezos - keep it up; or else. (click chart to enlarge)

1290790?profile=originalCourtesy of Twitter

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Admin

Bono joining the board of Fender and rumors that Dr. Dre will join the board at $AAPL. What do academics say about share prices and out performance when celebs take a seat at the board room table?  Increased exposure, higher consumer interest, improved sales.........or just a temporary blip on the chart?

Imagine the fight over Steven McQueen if he were alive today.  Ever car manufacturer, including TSLA, would go wild. 

Courtesy of FT

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Admin

Funday Monday Reads June 2nd

  • Better than expected China PMI over the weekend and ECB meeting on Thursday with LTRO announcement being anticipated and a (speculative) rate cut to help boost their economy.
  • $GOOG is planning on extending its customer base by offering internet usage to the un-wired regions of the world via satellite and boost revenue as well as earnings. The new project's estimated price ranges from $1B-$3B, and will start with 180 small, high-capacity satellites orbiting Earth at low altitude.  180 "low altitude"?  Just how many are up there anyway?  lol
  • Cost-cutting in a digital age to continue.  Imagine the possibilities.  For example one bank digitized it's mortgage-application and decision process, cutting the cost per new mortgage by 70% and slashing time to preliminary approval from several days to just one minute. A telecom created a self-serve, prepaid service where customers could order and activate phones without back-office involvement. A shoe retailer built a system to manage its in-stor

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Admin

th?&id=HN.608023376202893503&w=300&h=300&c=0&pid=1.9&rs=0&p=0David Einhorn’s Comments at the Greenlight Re (GLRE) Investor Day on May 20th 2014

  • Bernanke was predictable, but the new chairwoman is less predictable.
  • It has been 5 yrs into the recovery. Corporate profits have increased a lot and continue to grow. Current earnings expectations are high at a double-digit growth rate. Q1 numbers are showing the economy growing at  ~1%.
  • The fund is fully invested at 114% long and 66% short. It has increased its net long book from 35 to 50%.
  • Largest longs are Alpha Bank, Apple, gold, Marvel, Micron, and Oil States International.
  • Longs are cash-rich tech companies and businesses benefiting from structural changes. Shorts include secular decliners, momentum stocks, and iron ore related companies. Macro overlay due to monetary policy and unresolved imbalances.
  • Divergence between stock and bond markets?  Bond market is saying that economy is slowing down and yields have come down. Yields are not down because of deflation – we are not in deflation as commo

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Admin

Throwback Thursday Reads

  • No shocker here as the FTC issues a blistering rebuke of states limiting sales of TSLA direct consumer sales.
  • So much for the peace accord with Russia as they begin military exercises (WSJ)  Markets will not like this continued uncertainty.  Watch crude oil, gold, silver and copper.original-old-apple-logo.jpg?width=235  You will note that bonds $BND (flight to safe haven) have been holding up.  Not everyone is pouring money into equities.
  • The first regulation proposals are coming out on e-cigarettes  $LO currently holds a 42% market share..
  • Talk about putting cash to work.  AAPL has bought 24 companies in the last 18 months.  Searching for innovation allthewhile announcing an increase to their stock buyback, stock split and quarterly dividend to keep value investors in the name.  Oh, and an earnings beat once again to a low bar set.  Way to go Tim Cook.
  • The FCC said it will propose rules today that could give high-speed Internet providers more power on what content moves the fastest on the Web based on which firms pay th

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • AAPL's iPhone6 release expected late Summer, early Fall. Marketwatch1290465?profile=RESIZE_480x480
  • 44 stocks on Morgan Stanley's radar as take over candidates
  • Yellen's gaffe that wasn't. CNBC
  • How airlines are boosting their bottom line amid higher fuel costs; with add-on fees.  Click on graphic right to enlarge.
  • China slaps Nu Skin ($NUS) on the wrist, fining them $500k for misleading consumers.  Market was anticipating a much heavier fine and impact on EPS.  (booyah!  Kos is long)  AsiaOne
  • AAPL in talks with CMCSA over streaming-tv service. WSJ
  • CSCO pledges to invest $1 Billion to build out cloud infrastructure.  Better late than never I suppose.  WSJ Blog
  • Beneath our cities, a tangle of decaying gas pipe.  {What to look forward to with Keystone in 50 years}  NYTimes

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