What We're Reading

bear market (7)

Admin

Debt Doesn't Go On Forever

NYSE margin debt fell again during the month of February. After the selloff in stocks that kicked off 2016, this should come as no surprise. Investors are usually forced to reduce leveraged bets during these sorts of episodes in the stock market. In fact, this forced selling can actually exacerbate the volatility. And because margin debt is only now beginning to come down from record highs, surpassing those seen at the 2000 and 2007 peak, this should be of concern to most equity investors.

To fully appreciate this risk, I prefer to look at margin debt relative to overall economic activity. When leveraged financial speculation becomes large relative to the economy, it’s usually a sign investors have become far too greedy. As Warren Buffett would say, this is usually a good time to become more…

Read More, Comment and Share......

Admin

Bear Market? Yes It Is

The latest market selloff can be blamed on any number of things.  China slowdown or a possible hard landing in China, basic profit taking after a six-year run, declining earnings, no further QE in the US, a uptick in rates in the US, weak US economy, commodity (including crude oil) collapse, weakening of 'risk' currencies due to the commodity selloff, disappearance of buybacks, dividends being lowered, strong US dollar pressuring balance sheets, bear markets in pc sales, rail fees,.........the list goes on and on.  Bottom line: we need something solid to rally on and I fear any earnings pops will be given back.  Netflix will be a good example tomorrow after the close.  We simply cannot justify going higher without a catalyst.

The Wall Street Journal reminds us that this is not 2008 redux but just 'where' we bottom is open to…

Read More, Comment and Share......

Admin

Chart Palooza

I'm continually saving charts and data points which I find interesting but generally don't post enough to share the data.  That being said, I thought "wth" and decided to share some of my most recent.  Perhaps you can find a few of interest or maybe you can translate one into a trade.  It certainly can't hurt.  Your comments would be of interest and will be answered.  Happy trading.

Online shoppers by income group.  It certainly seems Amazon benefits by middle income buyers.  Possibly they just don't have the 'time' to shop in a store, working 60+ hours a week and balancing soccer games, football, cheerleading practice, dinner, laundry, etc.

Jet[dot]com is now selling some items at a loss to gain marketshare from Amazon…

Read More, Comment and Share......

Admin

The Early Stages Of A Bond Bear Market

I'm crazy to do this, but it sure looks like the Great Bond Bull Market has ended and we are in the early stages of another bond bear market. 


The Great Bond Bull Market started in the fourth quarter of 1981, after the 10-yr Treasury yield hit an all-time of almost 16%, and about a year after the year-over-year change in the CPI hit a post-Depression high of almost 15%. It most likely ended 31 years later, in July 2012, when the 10-yr yield fell to 1.4% at the height of the PIIGS crisis, and three years after the CPI hit a post-Depression low of -2.1%.…

Read More, Comment and Share......

Admin

According to Ashraf Laidi:  The following sobering analysis on the S&P500 reinforces our expectations that recent record highs in US equity indices will not be revisited before at least six weeks.

A decline of at least 10% is expected to follow.

-        Last week’s 3.6% decline in the S&P500 single-handedly erased all of the prior seven weeks’ consecutive gains.

The last time the S&P500 erased at least three weeks’ of consecutive gains was the week after the October 2007…

Read More, Comment and Share......

We welcome you to post a blog entry, oped or share your daily reading with us as long as it is relevant to the topic of investing and not an attempt to sell a product, proprietary strategy, platform or other service. Please provide links to any research data and if re-posting other articles, give credit where credit is due providing a back link to the original site.

300 words minimum per post. You may also sort by category or search by topic. Don't forget to comment and please "share" via Facebook, Twitter and Google+. If you have any questions, please contact us.

FOLLOW STOCKBUZ

__________________

This is a member-supported site. Please donate when you can to help pay the rent. Thank you!

Stay Informed. Sign up for the FREE StockBuz eNewsletter

________________

Investing involves substantial risk. All content is subject to StockBuz disclaimer.

Create Income With Option Spreads

All content on StockBuz.net is subject to disclaimer and Terms of Service