Saxo Bank has a few
Naturally, predictions like this are more for bank PR than education but they have some value.
For one, they're a reminder that unexpected, huge and unpredictable moves happen in markets. And they happen far more often than we expect.
The thing is, they usually happen somewhere you least expect.
As for this set of predictions, let's hope this trader is you (from the report):
"World markets are increasingly full of signs and wonders, and the collapse of volatility seen across asset classes in 2017 was no exception. The historic lows in the VIX and MOVE indices are matched by record highs in stocks and real estate, and the result is a powder keg that is set to blow sky-high as the S&P 500 loses 25% of its value in a rapid, spectacular, one-off move reminiscent of 1987. A whole swathe of short volatility funds are completely wiped out and a formerly unknown long volatility trader realises a 1000% gain and instantly becomes a legend."
Courtesy of ForexLive
With the recent announcement from Volvo that all vehicles will have electric engines in 2019 and phase out combustion engines, it becomes shockingly clear that electric is growing.................and faster than we have previously believed. Clearly Tesla (TSLA) has more competition than ever before so I bring you this piece from McKinsey to give you the breakdown. By the way, what does this mean for crude oil? Just tossng it out there.
New research on electric mobility reveals Chinese OEMs produced 43 percent of EVs worldwide in 2016 and highlights other trends in supply and demand.
China has increased its lead in electric-vehicle (EV) production, according to new McKinsey research (Exhibit 1). Chinese OEMs produced 43 percent of the 873,000 EVs built worldwide in 2016. And the country now has the largest fleet of EVs on the road, overtaking the US market for the first time (see sidebar, “Our methodology”).
China extends EV industry leadership
President-elect Donald Trump suggested he would be open to lifting sanctions on Russia and wasn’t committed to a longstanding agreement with China over Taiwan—two signs that he would use any available leverage to realign the U.S.’s relationship with its two biggest global strategic rivals.
In an hourlong interview, Mr. Trump said that, “at least for a period of time,” he would keep intact sanctions against Russia imposed by the Obama administration in late December in response to Moscow’s alleged cyberattacks to influence November’s election. But he suggested he might do away with those penalties if Russia proved helpful in battling terrorists and reaching other goals important to the U.S.
“If you get along and if Russia is really helping us, why would anybody have sanctions if somebody’s doing some really great things?” he said.
He also said he wouldn’t commit to America’s agreement with China that Taiwan wasn’t to be recognized diplomatically, a policy known as “One China,” until he
Last year was a bad one for many companies selling expensive fashion, handbags, and jewelry. For the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, the global market for personal luxury goods failed to grow, stalling at €249 billion (about $258 billion). Will Trumps tax proposal send their sails soaring or will his proposed tariffs interfere?
The good news is that 2017 should see a return to growth, according to a Dec. 28 report on the global luxury market by management consulting firm Bain & Company, only it won’t look anything like the boom years from 2010 to 2015, when global sales of such goods jumped 45%, fueled by Chinese consumers with high-end appetites. The slowing of China’s economy and its government’s ongoing crackdown on corruption, paired with turmoil in the US and Europe from Brexit, terrorism, and the US presidential election, have created a “new normal” of low single-digit growth and intense competition. The years ahead will produce “clear winners and losers,” Bain sa
The U.S. and global economy has reacted in mixed fashion since the election of Donald Trump as 45th President of the United States. One of the most significant potential fallouts though, is a trade war with China. Trump has spoken out against the current situation with China on a great number of occasions. Now he is in a position to potentially see through his pledges, some fear the emergence of a tit-for-tat trade war between the two countries. As the infographic below shows, the industries most endangered by any such war would be transportation and tech.
You will find more statistics at Statista
A December Fed rate hike, uncertainty regarding the U.S. presidential elections, weak earnings growth, diminished buyback activity and concerns about European banks pose near-term risks to global equities. Comments in italics are mine.
The summer rally has left equity valuations looking stretched. The median U.S. stock now trades at a higher P/E ratio than even at the 2000 peak. The Shiller P/E ratio stands at 27, but would be 37 if profit margins over the preceding ten years had been what they were in the 1990s. The fact that interest rates are low gives stocks some support, but with the Fed likely to hike rates in December, that tailwind will begin to fade.
Lackluster earnings growth remains another concern. S&P 500 and economy-wide profit margins have rolled over. Granted, the collapse in profits in the energy sector has been the major culprit, and this headwind should wane if oil prices edge higher over the next 12 months, as we expect. Nevertheless, faster wage growth and a f
The global economy has regained some composure, according to asset management firm Schroders. In their view, markets have regained a risk appetite following action by central banks, the normalization of commodity prices, and a lack of materialization for tail risks such as a U.S. recession or a Chinese hard-landing:
While volatility is indeed near its YTD low with the benchmark VIX down 32% since the start of the year, we would point out that this is potentially some calm before the storm.
Here are some upcoming waves, and we’ll see how they break:
Earnings and Buybacks: The blended earnings decline for the S&P 500 so far in 2016 Q1 is -8.9%, according to Factset. When earnings season is done and if this stays on target, it will mark the first time the index has seen four consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q4 2008 through Q3 2009. That said, companies are doing whatever they can to stifle these declines via share buybacks. S&P Dow Jones says that nearly
In debates about whether growth is a percentage point up or down, we too often lose sight of the absolute scale of China’s economy. No matter what rate the country grows at in 2016, its share of the global economy, and of many specific sectors, will be larger than ever. My snapshot of China in 2016? An increasingly diverse, volatile, $11 trillion economy whose performance is becoming more and more difficult to describe as one dimensional.
The reality is that China’s economy is today made up of multiple subeconomies, each more than a trillion dollars in size. Some are booming, some declining. Some are globally competitive, others fit for the scrap heap. How you feel about China depends more than ever on the parts of the economy where you compete. In 2015, selling kit to movie theaters has been great business, selling kit to steel mills less so. In your China, are you dealing with a tiger or a tortoise? Your performance in 2016 will depend on knowing the answer to this question and shapi
This U.S. earnings season is on track to be the worst since 2009 as profits from oil & gas and commodity-related companies plummet leaving many to wonder, is the worst behind us or is there more to come? Is China's growth story over or taking a 'rest'? We've lived on ghost cities creating demand for so many years; where is the next growth story?
So far, about three-quarters of the S&P 500 have reported results, with profits down 3.1 percent on a share-weighted basis, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. This would be the biggest quarterly drop in earnings since the third quarter 2009, and the second straight quarter of profit declines. Earnings growth turned negative for the first time in six years in the second quarter this year.
The damage is the biggest in commodity-related industries, with the energy sector showing a 54 percent drop in quarterly earnings per share so far in the quarter, with profits in the materials sector falling 15 percent.
The picture is brighter for the telec
I'm continually saving charts and data points which I find interesting but generally don't post enough to share the data. That being said, I thought "wth" and decided to share some of my most recent. Perhaps you can find a few of interest or maybe you can translate one into a trade. It certainly can't hurt. Your comments would be of interest and will be answered. Happy trading.
Online shoppers by income group. It certainly seems Amazon benefits by middle income buyers. Possibly they just don't have the 'time' to shop in a store, working 60+ hours a week and balancing soccer games, football, cheerleading practice, dinner, laundry, etc.
Jet[dot]com is now selling some items at a loss to gain marketshare from Amazon
We've had numerous talks in Chat over coal usage (is clean coal an oxymoron or what?) and this certainly backs up the belief that natural gas continues to be embraced.
Then we have a look at Bear markets of 20% or more.The average # of months caught my eye.
After a fairly flat period in the 1990s, the index leapt upward beginning in the early 2000s. The context explains the jump: High inflation, weak dollar and low interest rates. From 2001 to 2007, the dollar lost 41 percent of its value, and all commodities priced in dollars skyrocketed. At the same time, China began a huge expansion of its infrastructure, transportation, housing and manufacturing sectors. The BCOM index moved from around 90 to almost 240.
You know the rest of the story: Inflation is nowhere to be found, and the Federal Open Market Committee is concerned about deflation. The dollar is at multiyear highs against just about any other currency. Commodity prices have suffered as a result.
Oil prices have been cut almost in half compared with a year ago, to $45 from $87. They are down more than 60 percent from the pe
Worldwide money flows are of interest to a long term investor and the flight out of emerging markets has been striking. Weren't emerging markets supposed to where our expansion was to take place? What now?
According to the IIF, the volatile market conditions have taken a toll on capital flows to emerging markets, with net non-resident portfolio flows in August falling into negative territory for the first time in 2015, according to the Institute of International Finance’s latest EM Portfolio Flows Tracker. Outflows were estimated at $4.5 billion in August compared to inflows of $6.7 billion in July.
“Portfolio flows to emerging markets have retreated sharply in the last few weeks,” said Charles Collyns, chief economist at the IIF. “Emerging market investors have been spooked by rising uncertainty about China, and stress has been exacerbated by a combination of fundamental concerns about EM economic prospects and volatility in global financial markets.”
Emerging market equity flows f
Late on Sunday in California, the iPhone and iPad maker confirmed reports by security researchers who had warned that a swath of popular Chinese apps had been created using developer tools that were infected with the malware, resulting in the compromised apps.
“Hundreds of millions” of users of the popular Chinese apps were at risk of having their personal data exposed, including people who use Tencent’s WeChat mobile messaging service and ride-hailing app Didi Kuaidi, according to Palo Alto Networks, a US cyber security company.
Apple said it had removed the infected apps, which had been created with what it said was a fake version of its software for app developers, known as Xcode.
It did not explain how developers of a large number of China’s most widely used mobile services had all been infected with the same piece o
Most of the time, weekly data published by the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation (CSDC) is as dull as the organization’s name would suggest. But of some interest this year has been the weekly number of people opening trading accounts that allow them to buy and sell stocks.
Earlier, Quartz reported that a record 3.3 million individuals had rushed to join China’s stock market in the single week ending April 17. That was far above this year’s previous average weekly sign-up rate of 800,000.
After that week the market continued to grow until June 11, when it began a dramatic, prolonged crash that roiled markets worldwide. Quartz wanted to see how many people had signed up in the weeks from April 17 until now.
Oddly, however, the CSDC—which publishes data as far back as July 2013—has none of its typical investor data past May 29—two weeks ahead of the market’s descent:
It’s not clear why the CSDC either stopped publishing or removed its weekly data. Perhaps it doesn’t
China’s moves to spur its slowing economy and restore investor confidence are having an important but less obvious effect on the tech sector: Strengthening Chinese companies that already were making life difficult for U.S. rivals, many of whom have staked their growth plans on the world’s second-largest market.
The government’s surprise decision in early August to devalue China’s currency, in particular, could make it harder for U.S. companies to sell into the country by making their products more expensive to local buyers.
At the same time, a cheaper yuan makes Chinese-produced goods less costly abroad—dovetailing with government policies that have been promoting foreign sales by Chinese technology vendors.
“We see the key driver [of government action] being exports,” said Handel Jones, a consultant at International Business Strategies Inc. who has written books on China’s high-tech sector. Chinese companies “will become more aggressive.”
Once known mainly for its low-cost manufacturi
(Edited 2:00pm) I especially enjoy the part when the commentator withdrew his request for an interview after Schiff refused to blame everything on China. Yes, MSM wants us to believe it's all China's fault. Don't drink the koolaid. Use your head.
Hat tip Ed
Company earnings stumbled? Investors shrugged them off, sending shares higher. Economic growth was disappointing? So what.
But now that is changing.
Consider the recent trading in Apple, the world’s most valuable public company and a certifiable stock market darling. Apple announced third-quarter results on July 21 that were “amazing,” according to Tim Cook, its chief executive. Revenue rose 33 percent over the same period last year, and earnings per share were up 45 percent.
But investors seized on the fact that demand for the iPhone and the company’s new smartwatch didn’t meet expectations. Apple’s shares have lost 11.3 percent since then.
“I thought the break in Apple was a pretty big deal,” said Bill Fleckenstein, a veteran money manager at Fleckenstein Capital in Seattle. “They made all the numbers, but units were light. Maybe that is a precursor to what the entire tape is going to show us.”
The reaction to C
China’s market downfall has been dramatic and painful for the investors involved. But so far there has been little immediate impact on the rest of the world, because China tightly limits foreign investment in mainland stocks.
China’s stock markets are, for the most part, a mom and pop affair—about 80% of the trading that happens in Shanghai and Shenzhen is done by Chinese individuals. They represent at most 14% of the total Chinese population.
But there’s little doubt the effects of this downturn will be felt globally—it just may take some time. After all, Chinese investors have lost more about $3.4 trillion in equity value from the markets mid-June peak until the July 7 close:
And although the government is supporting state-owned companies in the markets, other companies have seen their market value plummet.
As of July 8, about half of the stocks that traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen have voluntarily halted trading indefinitely—which potentially puts the brakes on everything from co
According to BusinessInsider, a bunch of data about the state of China's economy came out Tuesday night, and altogether it told us one thing — nothing the government has been doing to save its economy from falling deeper into a slowdown is working.
Since November, China has cut benchmark interest rates three times, including once Saturday. It has also loosened mortgage policies to prop up the housing market.
But none of it's enough. Especially when you look at the data from Tuesday night.
Lets walk through the scariest stuff:
- M0 growth, or just the cold, hard cash floating around the economy, fell to 3.2% from 6.7%.
- Total social financing, a number that measures loans and all credit and debt in the country, fell by 32% since the same time last year and 11% from the previous month.
- And worst of all, fixed-ass
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