copper (2)

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Will Credit Cause A Slowdown

Saxo Bank thinks a slowdown in credit growth is bad news

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IF THERE is a consensus at the moment, it is that the global economy is finally managing a synchronised recovery. The purchasing managers' index for global manufacturing is at its highest level for six years; copper, the metal often seen as the most sensitive to global conditions, is up by a quarter since May

20170916_woc638_0.png?width=450But Steen Jakobsen of Saxo Bank thinks this strength will not last. His leading indicator is a measure of the change in private sector credit growth. This peaked at the turn of the year and is now heading down sharply. Indeed the change in trend is the most negative since the financial crisis (see chart). Since this indicator leads the economy by 9-12 months, that suggests a significant economic slowdown either late this year or early  in 2018. He says that

This call for a significant slowdown coincides with several facts: the ECB’s QE programme will conclude by end-2017 and will at best be scaled down by €10 billion per

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The investigation is looking into whether single cargoes of metal were used multiple times to obtain financing, according to industry sources. Trading houses and banks have sent executives to the port to physically check on their exposure, while some banks have stopped new metal financing to some clients in China. Traders said holders of copper in Qingdao that were having difficulty obtaining finance could also be forced to deliver

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