What We're Reading

ecb (4)

Admin

Over the years, it's become essential (to me) to understand monetary policy and money flows across the globe. With all of the recent 'pining' over whether the Fed will begin to raise rates this year, I felt this piece from Financial Times gave a great representation of who is worried over what, and why.  I truly recommend you give if it a read.  There's also more discussed on this article.  Enjoy.

Why is the Fed considering raising interest rates now?

America has seen its longest private sector hiring spurt on record, and unemployment has halved since its peak. The Fed thinks the hot jobs market could spur a…

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Admin

Take A Moment To Review

Let’s take a moment and put the market’s current trading action into perspective. Earlier this year bullish sentiment reached levels not seen in years or even decades depending upon data source. Market volatility had also fallen to levels not seen in years as the market was steadily making new all-times highs. S&P 500 actually went 63 trading days without a 1% percent daily move higher or lower. A feat last accomplished in 1995. And it has been more than three years without a 10% or greater S&P 500 correction. This is four times the average duration of time between corrections. Not to mention the market shrugged off tensions in Ukraine, Ebola in West Africa, the rise of ISIS in the Middle East, slowing global growth concerns and the Fed slowly easing up on stimulus. Honestly the market had gotten ahead of itself and was in need of a cool-off period. More likely than not, that is what it is doing.

Yes, weak economic data out of Asia and Europe is a concern as…

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Admin

Looking Back At The Market

The ECB left its key lending rates at record low levels, and the four-week moving average for initial claims is at an eight-year low.  That sounds like a pretty good setup for a stock market that worries about earnings prospects tied to a stronger dollar, loves the thought of central bank policy rates holding near the zero bound, and is anxious to see evidence the U.S. economy is gaining momentum.

Despite the setup, it has been a swing and a miss so far for the stock market, which has once again been greeted with steady, and broad-based, selling pressure.

ECB President Mario Draghi is getting a lot of blame for the disappointing price action based on reports that his presentation regarding the ECB's asset-backed securities purchase program was lacking and the…

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Admin

The Draghi Squeeze

Sectors are squeezing higher in anticipation of ECB rate decision, expected to cut rates another 25-50bp (negative rates - wow) and possibly announcing LTRO (long-term refinancing operations) tomorrow before U.S. markets open in an effort to reign in inflationary pressures across the pond. I would assume much of this has been "baked in" however $1941 remains very doable.
One thing for certain if they don't, it will be ugly........but I'll still buy the dip.

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