economy (28)

Admin

The idea that we are late in the economic and financial-market cycle is one that even most Wall Street bulls won’t dispute.

 

After all, when the economic expansion surpasses a decade to become the longest ever and the S&P 500 has delivered a compounded return of nearly 18% a year since March 2009, how can the cycle not be considered pretty mature?

Yet it’s not quite that simple. Huge parts of the economy have run out of sync, at separate speeds. Some indicators have a decidedly “good as it gets” look, others retain a mid-cycle profile — and a few even resemble early parts of a recovery than the end. Friday’s unexpectedly strong November job gain above 200,000 reflects this debate, suggesting we are not at “full employment” even this deep into an expansion.

And the market itself has stalled and retrenched several times along the way, keeping risk appetites tethered and purging or preventing excesses.

In the “late-cycle” category we find several broad, trending data readings: Unemploym

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Admin

Yield Curve Inversion We're All Watching

Whether you're watching CNBC, Twitter or another news outlet, you're hearing a great deal of talk about the odds increasing that the Fed will drop rates soon.  Everyone's cheering it on..........yet no one's talking about recession possibilities.  Don't say 'recession' on live tv!  Keep that notion out of your head!  At least I believe that's what Trump is thinking as he warms up for his 2020 campaign.  He wants the market "up, up, up".  A strong stock market with plenty of green and profits in your pocket.  If it fails after 2020, so be it.  At least he'll have his re-election and be further away from any prosecutorial attacks for four more years.  If he loses, blame it all on the Democrats!

In the meantime our yield curve continues to invert, or decay if you see it that way; implying a rough road ahead for the U.S. as China and European countries slowing low and behold, the U.S. having a "global market", the U.S. looks to be slowing as well.  Shocker!

Now the US housing market is slo

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Admin

Will Credit Cause A Slowdown

Saxo Bank thinks a slowdown in credit growth is bad news

20170909_BLP518.jpg?width=500

IF THERE is a consensus at the moment, it is that the global economy is finally managing a synchronised recovery. The purchasing managers' index for global manufacturing is at its highest level for six years; copper, the metal often seen as the most sensitive to global conditions, is up by a quarter since May

20170916_woc638_0.png?width=450But Steen Jakobsen of Saxo Bank thinks this strength will not last. His leading indicator is a measure of the change in private sector credit growth. This peaked at the turn of the year and is now heading down sharply. Indeed the change in trend is the most negative since the financial crisis (see chart). Since this indicator leads the economy by 9-12 months, that suggests a significant economic slowdown either late this year or early  in 2018. He says that

This call for a significant slowdown coincides with several facts: the ECB’s QE programme will conclude by end-2017 and will at best be scaled down by €10 billion per

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Admin

The Big Picture

First and foremost let me point out that Ray Dalio, founder of investment firm Bridgewater Associates, has joined Twitter so I encourage you to follow him here.  Secondly I suggest you grab a cup of coffee or maybe the entire pot as he gradually lays out what he sees ahead for the market.  Enjoy!

Big picture, the near term looks good and the longer term looks scary. That is because:

  1. The economy is now at or near its best, and we see no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two,
  2. There are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt obligations, limited abilities by central banks to stimulate, etc.) that are likely to create a squeeze,
  3. Social and political conflicts are near their worst for the last number of decades, and
  4. Conflicts get worse when economies worsen.

So while we have no near-term economic worries for the economy as a whole, we worry about what these conflicts will become like when the economy has its next downturn.

The next few pages g

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Admin

Is The Fed About To Experience A Repeat Of 2016?

In the most recent Summary of Economic Projections, Fed officials penciled in three 25bp rate hikes for 2017. The reality, however, could be very different. We all remember how “four” became “one” in 2016. The median dots are neither a promise nor an official forecast. As 2016 progressed, forecasts associated with a lower path of SEP “dots” evolved as the consensus view of policymakers. Will the same happen this year? I don’t think so; it is hard to see the Fed on pause for another twelve months.

As a starting point, I think it best to assume the US economy is near full-employment. But the US economy was near full-employment at this time last year as well. I think the key difference between then and now is that then the after-effect of the oil price slide and dollar surge placed a drag on the US economy sufficient to ease hiring pressure. At the same time, labor force participation perked up, setting the stage for a flat unemployment rate for most of the year. Inflationary pressures e

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Admin

Is The Stock Market Rally Over?

As technicians battle over whether our "hated" seven year rally still has legs, I continue to return and ask myself "has anything truly blown up?".  I do personally believe the US Dollar will continue it strength and that will continue to put pressure on commodities, dividend payers and discretionary.  Financials and insurers will push higher.  Can the rest of the boat survive?  Are earnings guidance showing a 'rosey' picture of the future?  Will Trump win?  Too many unknowns for me.  This post, using monthly charts, brings me back to earth.  While I have no need to catch the absolute top, it gives me specific areas which need to be defined.  I remain cautious and yes, have numerous short positions as well as longs.  That doesn't mean, however, that I'm willing to give up just yet.  I hope you enjoy-

While the technicians usually write about the short tem, I want to zoom out a little and use a monthly chart of the New York Composite ($NYA). For those who follow my webinars, we are foll

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Admin

Is Brexit Truly The End Of The EU Itself?

The vote has come and gone. A major European nation has chosen to leave the EU. The markets have had their obligatory decline. A weekend has passed. It is time to think about what exactly has happened… and what it means, if anything.

The real drive to leave had little to do with economics. It had a great deal to do with immigration. The EU’s economy has been in wretched condition since 2008.

The EU has been unable to forge a plan that would fix dire unemployment in southern Europe and revive the stagnant economy. The EU’s founding treaty promised prosperity. It has failed. Germany has the healthiest economy in Europe, but even it struggles to grow.

The case for staying in the EU was that leaving would ruin the British economy. This assumed, of course, that staying in a broken union would help the economy. The logic of that escaped me. It is hard to see any economic benefits that would be lost. As I put it in my book Flashpoints, “Britain will avoid the destabilization in Europe by pull

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Admin

most-valuable-exports-middle-east.jpg?width=750We’ll start with the obvious: the number one export for many countries here is crude oil or related petroleum products. Middle Eastern countries made up a significant portion of global oil export revenues during 2015 with shipments valued at $325 billion or 41.3% of global crude oil exports.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iran, and Oman were all among the top 15 exporters of crude oil in 2015. Russia and Kazakhstan, countries on the Central Asian part of the map, were also members of that same group.

Regimes in the region found that there were many other corollary benefits from this economic might. Unrest could be stifled by rising wealth, and these countries would also have more influence than they otherwise would in global affairs. Saudi Arabia is a good example in both cases, though a major driver of Saudi influence has been slipping in recent years.

Outside of Oil

Aside from exports of oil, there are some other interesting subtleties to this map. One of the most

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Admin

The Global Economy: April 2016

The global economy has regained some composure, according to asset management firm Schroders. In their view, markets have regained a risk appetite following action by central banks, the normalization of commodity prices, and a lack of materialization for tail risks such as a U.S. recession or a Chinese hard-landing:

economic-infographic-apr-2016.jpg

While volatility is indeed near its YTD low with the benchmark VIX down 32% since the start of the year, we would point out that this is potentially some calm before the storm.

Here are some upcoming waves, and we’ll see how they break:

Earnings and Buybacks: The blended earnings decline for the S&P 500 so far in 2016 Q1 is -8.9%, according to Factset. When earnings season is done and if this stays on target, it will mark the first time the index has seen four consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q4 2008 through Q3 2009. That said, companies are doing whatever they can to stifle these declines via share buybacks. S&P Dow Jones says that nearly

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Admin

On a Letter from an Expatriate

234447967_516894d7fc_o.jpg?width=440A friend I haven’t heard from in many years since he left the USA wrote me. He closed the letter in an unusual way, saying:

PS — USA has gone completely bonkers these days? or what the heck is going on over there? would love to pick your mind over a glass of wine. someday!

I’m not intending on writing on politics as a regular habit at Aleph Blog, and most of what I am going to say is economics-related, so please bear with me.  Hopefully this will get it out of my system.

To my friend,

There are a lot of frustrated people in the US.  Though you’ve been gone a long time, you used to know me pretty well; after all, I trained you on economic matters.

Let me give a list of reasons why I think people are frustrated, then explain how that affects their political calculations, and finally explain why they have mostly misdiagnosed the issues, and won’t get what they want regardless of who is elected.

The electorate is frustrated because:

  • Living standards have declined for the lower 80% of so

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Admin

Byron Wiens Top 10 Surprises For 2016

crystal-ball.jpg?width=300Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman of Multi-Asset Investing at Blackstone, today issued his list of Ten Surprises for 2016. This is the 31st year Byron has given his views on a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.

Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Byron joined Blackstone in September 2009 as a senior advisor to both the firm and its clients in analyzing economic, political, market and social trends.

Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2016 are as follows:

1. Riding on the coattails of Hillary Clinton, the winner of the presidential race against Ted Cruz, the Democrats gain control of the Senate in November.  The extreme positions of the Republican presidential candidate on k

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Admin

While main stream media does their level best to keep us hugging our equities, they seem to ignore the fact that quantitative easing ran the market up from 2009 and while the economy has come a long way since the bottom, maybe, just maybe, it's strong enough to sustain us, but not equities at elevated levels.

Federal Reserve officials have signaled they think the economy is robust enough to withstand a round of interest-rate rises starting this year. But the bond market still seems skeptical.

While yields on short-term Treasury notes have started moving higher in anticipation of an interest-rate increase as early as September, yields on longer-term debt have remained stubbornly low. That is a sign that many investors are still doubtful about the health of the economy, and the ability of the Fed to keep raising rates without jeopardizing growth.

On Tuesday, yields on short-term U.S. Treasury notes rose after a Fed official sounded the latest all clear for a rate rise as soon as Septembe

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Admin

ep_chart_001.gif?width=300Saw this and had to share it because clearly, there are enormous masses out there that just are not feeling giddy over the economic "recovery".  Trickle down effect?  Yeah, o.k.   Sure, the stock market is enjoying all time new highs but is the economy truly humming along?  The numbers show obviously not for the majority.  Bribe your kids.  Do whatever it takes.  They'll need it later, even more than they need it today.

From Ritholtz:

The economy is, in a word, “lumpy.” It is strong in some regions, anemic in others. Strength by economic sector varies widely. There are myriad reasons for this: Some parts of the country were much harder hit by the real estate collapse; some sectors naturally rebound more quickly; some innovations lend themselves to more rapid growth.

The kind of recovery that you personally are experiencing is highly dependent upon many factors, but today I want to focus on three: education, market sector and geography. The data suggest these elements matter a great dea

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Admin

The Future U.S. Consumer

Back in the 1990's, we as Managers were trained in racial diversity and businesses began their slow and gradual integration for the Hispanic community (Spanish calls center workers, select "5" for Spanish on automated phone services, packaging with alternate language, etc.). The CBO had already made the predictions of the shift in U.S. ethnicity and companies had to prepare. Fast forward 10 or 25 years from now now and just what will be the face of the consumer ahead?  What about job growth, income growth and how many older Americans will fall off of the economic spending gap?

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Admin

Lower Oil Spawns Numerous Opportunities

1290973?profile=RESIZE_480x480As many Western economies are seemingly slowing down again, with most of them still struggling with stubbornly high unemployment levels, they will only benefit from the current sharp drop in oil prices which will stimulate the global economy. Moreover, countries now have the opportunity to replenish stocks and protect themselves against future price hikes. Stockpiling begs the question: how long will prices remain relatively low compared to recent years? Will they fall further? $60 would certainly kick start substantial economic activity or will supply be rained back?

In the past, we have seen the US and its Western partners put pressure on OPEC, and the world's only swing producer Saudi Arabia, to increase supply so as to lower prices or maintain price stability. Are we about to see them create further price fixing market imperfections by asking the Saudis to cut production so as to create a return to higher prices? Much of the Western economic commentaries are suggesting the Middle

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Admin

Zero Growth In 4Q For Germany? Dark Skies For Europe

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If Germany is the European leader, one can easily see how this bodes for the rest across the pond as well as DEMAND for goods and services coming out of the U.S.

According to Reuters Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe said on Monday he expected zero growth in the fourth quarter in Germany and that there were almost no bright spots for German industry at present.  "Things have not gone well for German industry and there are no bright spots for industry," he said. (click chart to enlarge)

Business sentiment darkened in October for a sixth month running, according to the Munich-based Ifo think-tank's business climate index, which fell to 103.2 from 104.7 the previous month. That was its weakest reading since December 2012.

Wohlrabe said recent upward momentum in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Germany was not yet visible. Only firms' export expectations had risen slightly, he said, although it remained to be seen if this was sustainable.

Hans-Werner Sinn, President of Germany’s Ifo In

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Admin

Five Reasons To Fear Deflation

1290958?profile=originalThe deflation scare is back, as Jon Hilsenrath and Brian Blackstone report on the front page of The Wall Street Journal. It’s worth taking a moment to contemplate why deflation is such a bad thing. After all, falling prices sound appealing to consumers, especially compared with the alternative of higher prices.

So why worry?cci.png?width=268

Here are five reasons:

1. Deflation is a generalized decline in prices and, sometimes, wages. Sure, if you’re lucky enough to get a raise, your paycheck goes further–but those whose wages decline or who are laid off or work fewer hours are not going to enjoy a falling price index.

2. It can be hard (though, as we’ve seen, not impossible) for employers to cut nominal wages when conditions warrant;  it’s easier to give raises that are less than the inflation rate, which is what economists call a real wage cut. And if wages are, as economists say, marked by “downward nominal rigidity,” then employers will hire fewer people.

As Paul Krugman put it i

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Admin

Solar Short Worth A Shot

1290935?profile=RESIZE_480x480The right shoulder of a possible head-and-shoulders top in CSIQ seems to have formed, rebuffed at the 200d with a dropping 20d SMA (a sign of sellers there).  Risk is defined with a cover alert (I don't use stops) above this weeks high.  (click chart to enlarge)

Based on weak economic conditions both here and abroad, I don't see solar sales taking off anytime soon......without further government subsidies.  Even then consider stagnating wages and new jobs being at the high and low end of the spectrum, I just don't see a catalyst for these names to go higher at this juncture.

They're already ridiculously cheap right now.  Can you get any cheaper than free?

Already heavily shorted, your broker may have to track down shares to short - or buy puts and dump/take the hit above the right shoulder.

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Admin

Jackson Hole 'Pop' Continues

th?&id=HN.608002275123923129&w=300&h=300&c=0&pid=1.9&rs=0&p=0Markets being forward looking, I believe we're seeing a snap back ahead of this weeks Jackson Hole meeting (Aug 21-23) where policymakers will discuss at length their thinking around the labor markets of major economies, perhaps dropping clues about the path for monetary policy in the months ahead.

The spotlight will be on Janet Yellen, who will speak on Friday in her first appearance at Jackson Hole as Fed chair.

Most will recall Ben Bernanke two years ago that paved the way for an unprecedented $85 billion per month stimulus plan.

While most don't expect anything spectacular out of the Fed Chairwoman given the improvement in the unemployment rate and overall economy, I have to wonder what will happen after the air is let out of the hopium balloon.  QE is still set to end in October.  Tensions between Russian and Ukraine have sent yields lower.  Whether there is further escalation or a resolution is yet to be seen.  The economy is recovering like a limp noodle, but it is improving.  S

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