What We're Reading

forex (4)

Admin

U.S. Dollar Update

As global central banks continue their race to devalue their currency in hopes of supporting their own weak economies (most recently Bank of Israel unexpectedly cutting their base interest rate overnight by 15bps from 25bp to 10bp) global money flows continue to seek safe haven in the U.S. dollar.  And everyone agrees there is no end in sight near term.

In fact the daily chart is in a beautifully, tight bollinger band squeeze which I feel is going to break even higher.

Pressure looks to continue for large cap multinationals as currency strength will continue to pressure balance sheets with overseas sales.  A great time for the consumer to take a vacation across the pond however as your greenback outperforms every currency out there.

Bragging rights in a weak economic recovery.  You have to take it when you can get it.…

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Admin

Swiss Referendum. A Wrench In The Works For Whom

As polls continue to swing around ahead of the Swiss gold referendum on 30th November, we expect increased volatility in the FX and gold market.  After the implementation of the EURCHF floor, gold’s share of the SNB balance sheet has fallen to 7.5% from around 30% in 2007 (top chart).  The SNB has already pointed out the untenable nature of the peg should the referendum pass, but the impact on the gold market would also be significant.  Taking the current balance sheet of 522bn CHF and spot gold prices, the requirement to hold at least 20% of assets in gold would necessitate buying 1,800 tonnes of gold over 5 years.  Total global production in 2013 was 2,982 tonnes, thus the SNB would need to buy at least 10% of the annual production every year for the next 5 years.

The bottom chart shows the latest composition of the SNB’s FX…

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Admin

McKinsey: Developed Countries to Lead; Not Emerging

That's the message being sent out based on McKinsey's latest executive survey and the first thing that comes to mind for me, is FX money flow.  Here are a few excerpts:

Global executives are increasingly positive about the direction of the world economy, though in our latest survey on economic conditions, the source of their optimism has shifted away from emerging markets and toward the developed world. For the first time since we posed the question 18 months ago, respondents say they no longer expect developing markets to lead global economic growth over the next decade. Instead, they expect developed markets—and…

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