What We're Reading

gold (18)

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We’ll start with the obvious: the number one export for many countries here is crude oil or related petroleum products. Middle Eastern countries made up a significant portion of global oil export revenues during 2015 with shipments valued at $325 billion or 41.3% of global crude oil exports.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iran, and Oman were all among the top 15 exporters of crude oil in 2015. Russia and Kazakhstan, countries on the Central Asian part of the map, were also members of that same group.

Regimes in the region found that there were many other corollary benefits from this economic might. Unrest could be stifled by rising wealth, and these countries would also have more influence than they otherwise would in global affairs. Saudi Arabia is a good example in both cases, though a…

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Admin

Gold Shrugs Off 'Armageddon'

This was the week Greece inched closest to chaos, as a bank holiday and a technical default caused markets around the world to erupt in turmoil. They recovered somewhat Tuesday, and futures looked stronger Wednesday morning, but on Monday, the NASDAQ Composite Index lost 2.4 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 2.09 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.95 percent. Volatility exploded, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index surged 35 percent, its biggest increase in two years, to 18.85. …

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Admin

Bulls Must Be Patient

Things rising now are for the most part due to those (few) who see better earnings ahead, an earnings beat or rising on the struggling dollar........while peers get a definitely smaller bid....or none.  It's a struggle.  You'll notice more losing trades recently as markets are searching out the "good".  Some are talking recession (I don't buy that) while others struggle to find a way to get "through" the soft patch; waiting for 2016.  

In futures, volume has dropped off the cliff overnight.  It's amazing (and worth noting).

One things that's stood out for me is the increase in dividends and buybacks.  Yes, there's been an increase and new ones begun while O&G cut theirs.  Isn't it interesting how the market will do whatever it can to keep people in stocks.  Just sayin'.

AMZN is leading the Nasdaq with AAPL reporting this week but MRVL just announced a much …

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Admin

Random Notes

Life has intervened of late however I felt I would post my random thoughts viewing my port yesterday:

  • Russia is still working. RSX at it’s 100d today. I will add more if it comes back to the 50d http://screencast.com/t/Eh88iqLP   Long hold, definitely.  Throw it in a drawer and forget about it.

  • Buffet lowered his XOM stake and bought DE.  DE Monthly sure looks like its coiled up for something. Buffet obviously thinks new all time highs http://screencast.com/t/rlyFa0yzLeb  DE earnings this Friday bmo. I'd be long common and get put protection.  Buy or add on any selloff.  Daily view, bouncing off that 50% fib (to me) equals good chance it wants to challenge/break the high…

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Admin

Gold Losing Its Luster

I'm back from Illinois after "life intervened" and I rushed out the door and gold has done exactly what I felt it would do.  In this previous post I felt that the 100 week SMA would pose a resistance and if you think about it, it makes complete sense.

  • From a season standpoint, gold doesn't have much demand until last Summer when Indian festival and wedding season kicks in followed by jewelry gift giving as the Winter holidays approach.  (see seasonal chart)
  • Inflation is very low = no need to hedge with gold
  • The stock market is challenging new highs.  When equities are doing…

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Admin

Swiss Referendum. A Wrench In The Works For Whom

As polls continue to swing around ahead of the Swiss gold referendum on 30th November, we expect increased volatility in the FX and gold market.  After the implementation of the EURCHF floor, gold’s share of the SNB balance sheet has fallen to 7.5% from around 30% in 2007 (top chart).  The SNB has already pointed out the untenable nature of the peg should the referendum pass, but the impact on the gold market would also be significant.  Taking the current balance sheet of 522bn CHF and spot gold prices, the requirement to hold at least 20% of assets in gold would necessitate buying 1,800 tonnes of gold over 5 years.  Total global production in 2013 was 2,982 tonnes, thus the SNB would need to buy at least 10% of the annual production every year for the next 5 years.

The bottom chart shows the latest composition of the SNB’s FX…

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Admin

Gold Bulls Take Care

I can’t tell you that gold is a bad investment. Even after the recent plunge, if you bought gold in 2004, your investment would have earned you an annualized rate of about 10.4 percent, after accounting for inflation. That is darned impressive. If you bought in 1994, it would have earned about 3.9 percent per year -- not too shabby. Even if you bought all the way back in 1984, you would have earned 1.8 percent in real terms. (Of course, this assumes that shadowstats.com is wrong, and that inflation hasn’t been massively understated.)

In addition to delivering decent long-term returns, gold has been a way to spread or offset…

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Admin

I'm Not Insane, No, Maybe

For all you doubters out there, yes I have out my pompoms on the move in gold and silver this week.  You scoffed in March when I said a right shoulder could be formed.  Then again chuckled in April and May 3rd but I ask you who's laughing now?  Already I'm seeing tweets of a possible H&SB and I'm comfortably long SLV calls, enjoying the sunshine.  Scoff all you wish you financial gurus.  Charts don't lie; people do.

This daily for GLD and SLV is intriguing, showing both breaking out of falling wedges (they should test support which would be great to get in or add more shares or calls).…

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Admin

Seasonal Demand Trades June 2014

Seasonal demand is just what it sounds like.  What seasons certain things see higher demand such as natural gas for A/C and heating or gold for jewelry manufacturing and sales.  With that in mind I thought I'd flip through our Seasonal Charts for hints of possible trades here and in the months approaching.  My unscientific belief has been that larger players begin to buy long futures contracts before the season hits so I begin to watch for divergences and support in charts.  Click on the charts below for a better view.  Let's take a look:…

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Admin

Weekend Reads May 3rd-4th

  • Stocktwits: "investor say the bottom is in for gold"
  • Hey, wait a minute.  Didn't StockBuz say watch for a gold (GLD) weekly right shoulder to form back in March and early April?  Even posting on the gold miners here.  We're ahead of the herd once again......maybe.   (click image to enlarge)  At least risk…

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Admin

Gold: Sticking With It

It may not be a popular view but then again, when everyone's on one side, doesn't the market tend to do the opposite of what's expected?  It seems the Elliott Wavers of the blogisphere are calling for gold to head lower here but I stand by my call of last week that the low will hold and we'll see a head-and-shoulders bottom (right shoulder) forming here.  Silver and all of the miners reflect a similar pattern, as posted here at StockBuz last week.  The weekly even resembles a possible double bottom.  Wouldn't that be sweet!  At the very least, down side risk is defined (last weeks low) but with fear in the market and heavy selling continued after the first of the month, utilities (safe haven) are already hitting a new high and I believe flight to precious metals will…

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • Schwab says HFT is a "Cancer" that must be addressed.  "The primary principle behind our markets has always  been that no one should carry an unfair advantage. That simple but fundamental principle is being broken." When big players such as Schwab begin to speak out, one must wonder if this will gain attention now.
  • GT sold some AMZN 360/365 bear call spreads.  Still feel that's a HST
  • Citibank $C reports$400M in fraudulent loans out of their Mexico…

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Admin

Hump Day Reading

  • For all the worrying about weather impacting job creation, Trim Tabs say real time tax receipt data (allegedly more reliable than BLS data) suggests that the economy has been picking up steam.  24/7WallStreet
  • A 8.2% magnitude earthquake overnight off the coast of Chile with a 2 meter tsunami.  Supposedly mining operations have not been affected buy you try to tell that to silver and gold this morning.  They're not buying it (so far)
  • Interesting metrics from …

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • With the increase in US oil (hello Bakken), shipping black gold by rail has caused backlog in shipments of other goods across all industries forcing rail companies to scramble to expand.  The biggest loser: shippers.  Sounds like more promo for Keystone to be approved WSJ
  • Are you guilty or have you been there, done that?  Take a different view of those around you in the service industry and how you/we view and interact with them.  An open letter to Paul Ryan on poverty Salon
  • Last night after the close, CME lowered margin requirements for …

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • The argument to lift the ban on crude oil exports Bloomberg
  • How big oil (and Senators) are positioning at the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Bloomberg
  • A 3pm gold "fix"?  This study says it began in 2004. Bloomberg
  • That's what I've been saying.  Fed may have to let inflation run hot to meet goals. Reuters
  • Markets spooked as confirmation came of Russian troops taking over two airports in the Crimean area of the Ukraine.  UN to hold closed-door session this…

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Admin

Today was a typical Saturday.  I began to scan my watchlist, ran through the indexes and flipped through my favorite web pages for tidbits of stockmarket insight.   At one point I noticed that in wake of yesterdays selloff in gold/silver, suddenly people were posting seasonal charts for gold and silver.....as if they had just been discovered.  Helllllo McFly.   No, there is no seasonal demand for  the shiny stuff here.  Hasn't been; move along.  Economies are healing; meaning there's less of a need to hedge yourself with gold and bonds.  With no demand and less of a flight to safety,the big boys are…

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