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The Long Road Of Proving Yourself As A Investor

A reader asked the other day, "How much time do you need before you can separate skill versus luck in investing?" 

My answer was "probably 20-30 years," which he found astounding. He thought I'd say five years. But here's my reasoning. 

If a doctor performed one successful surgery, you can be pretty sure he's an expert. If he does one successful surgery every day for a year, he clearly knows what he's doing.

Investing is different. There are thousands of stocks, and at any given time, a fair number of them will be exploding higher. With millions of investors, some will be holding disproportionate amounts of those winners at any given moment. It can take five or 10 years of successful returns for an investor to make a case that results aren't entirely due to chance.

But even then -- with, say a 10-year track record of success -- an investor can't claim expertise. Or at least reliable expertise you'd expect from a doctor or an engineer. That's…

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Let The Car Do The Driving: Mobileye IPO

Under the heading of "cool but creepy", Mobileye (MBLY), whose software and applications enable hands-free driving, debuts today on the NYSE.

Mobileye’s proprietary software algorithms and EyeQ® chip (now in its 3rd generation) perform detailed interpretations of the visual field in order to anticipate possible collisions with other licensed vehicles, pedestrians, animals, debris and other obstacles.

They posted rapid revenue growth of late and reported a $19.9 million profit last year, reversing a year-earlier loss, according to its prospectus. Its products were installed in about 3.3 million vehicles through March 31 and obviously growing.  They have also filed 15 patents thus far on their technology including several on their collision warning systems which one would believe is where the true value lies from a buyout perspective.

With more than…

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The Cost of Robbing Peter To Pay Paul

Reprinted from http://mauldineconomics.com

Would the Real Peter and Paul Please Stand Up?

By Dylan Grice

In a previous life as a London-based ‘global strategist’ (I was never sure what that was) I was known as someone who was worried by QE and more generally, about the willingness of our central bankers to play games with something which I didn’t think they fully understand: money. This may be a strange, even presumptuous thing to say. Surely of all people, one thing central bankers understand is money?

They certainly should understand money. They print it, lend it, borrow it, conjure it. They control the price of it... But so…

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