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seasonality (3)

Admin

Crude oil has a tendency to bottom in mid-February and then rally through July with the bulk of the seasonal move ending in late April or early May. It is that early February low that can give traders an edge by buying ahead of a seasonally strong period. Going long crude oil’s July contract on or about February 14 and holding for approximately 60 days has been a profitable trade 27 times in 33 years, including the last three years straight, for an 81.8% win ratio with a cumulative profit of $108,660 (based upon trading a single crude oil futures contract excluding commissions and taxes).

Crude oil’s seasonal tendency to move higher in this time period is partly due to continuing demand for heating oil and diesel fuel in the northern states and partly due to the shutdown of refinery operations in order to switch production facilities from producing heating oil to reformulated unleaded gasoline in anticipation of heavy demand for…

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Admin

Today was a typical Saturday.  I began to scan my watchlist, ran through the indexes and flipped through my favorite web pages for tidbits of stockmarket insight.   At one point I noticed that in wake of yesterdays selloff in gold/silver, suddenly people were posting seasonal charts for gold and silver.....as if they had just been discovered.  Helllllo McFly.   No, there is no seasonal demand for  the shiny stuff here.  Hasn't been; move along.  Economies are healing; meaning there's less of a need to hedge yourself with gold and bonds.  With no demand and less of a flight to safety,the big boys are…

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Admin

A Correction? Another headfake? My .02

Should I buy the dip? Should I blame it on lunar movements or is it another headfake? Will the Bears be punished once more and we head higher as we have in the past? Well for what its worth [which is zilch] I think we're in for a larger correction. Obviously I'm not a Economist or a Hedge Fund Manager [I wish] but I believe there are number of reasons we'll see *sell in May and go away* come to fruition this year.

  • First and foremost, spiralling Eurozone debt and the additional debt they'll…

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