“Low volatility could be ‘the quiet before the storm,’” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told CNBC last week, adding: “I lie awake worrying.” Over the past 20 years, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below…
We’ve been bulls on 30-year Treasury bonds since 1981 when we stated, “We’re entering the bond rally of a lifetime.” It’s still under way, in our opinion. Their yields back then were 15.2%, but our forecast called for huge declines in inflation and, with it, a gigantic fall in bond yields to our then-target of 3%.
The Cause of Inflation
We’ve argued that the root of inflation is excess demand, and historically it’s caused by huge government spending on top of a fully-employed economy. That happens during wars, and so inflation and wars always go together, going…
This caught my eye as I tend to look at stocks when they near a significant, long-term support such as a 100 month or 200 month EMA or SMA. Of course I'm buying with a long term perspective in this approach but it got me wondering: Is is better to hold your breath and simply buy stocks when they've sold off 20%? The downside still terrifies me but looking at historical returns is intriguing. From Awelathofcommonsense:
Large cap U.S. equities continue to hold up well with the S&P 500 down roughly 12% from its all-time highs reached last spring. To some degree, this performance has masked the global bear market going on in the rest of the world. Take a look at this list of country ETFs from Bespoke Investment…
A reader asked the other day, "How much time do you need before you can separate skill versus luck in investing?"
My answer was "probably 20-30 years," which he found astounding. He thought I'd say five years. But here's my reasoning.
If a doctor performed one successful surgery, you can be pretty sure he's an expert. If he does one successful surgery every day for a year, he clearly knows what he's doing.
Investing is different. There are thousands of stocks, and at any given time, a fair number of them will be exploding higher. With millions of investors, some will be holding disproportionate amounts of those winners at any given moment. It can take five or 10 years of successful returns for an investor to make a case that results aren't entirely due to chance.
But even then -- with, say a 10-year track record of success -- an investor can't claim expertise. Or at least reliable expertise you'd expect from a doctor or an engineer. That's…
Certainly it would seem not everyone believes the economy is strong enough to support future earnings and rising profits.
Is the five-year bull run finally running out of steam?
My simplistic view of the stock market, the one my muddled brain is able to wrap around, is to imagine that of the waterfalls at the Continental Divide at Glacier National Park in Montana. Numerous rivers, all converging into to one. Hedge funds, pension funds, investment firms, your own 401k, option flows, you name it.........and share buybacks.
Throughout the recovery, the amount of cash being held on corporate balance sheets was in some instances, astounding, leaving many investors wondering if/when the cash would be deployed.
Well if you haven't noticed, they have been deploying more and more. Just imagine the many streams you see in this image to the right. One is M&A which can be the acquisition of a company to compliment ones existing structure OR a direct competitor which is a plus for a stock by…
We've spoken numerous times in Chat about various apps for our smart phones and tablet, but how many apps are truly out there? Google is alleged to have over 700 apps in Google Play however I've never counted and I'd imagine that number fluctuates continually as old, blah apps are deleted and replaced with hip, upbeat inspirations. Of course this still does not include apps for Apple iPhones/tablets and those apps just sitting out there on blogs and websites. It boggles the mind so I began a search and came across this list, which strangely misses tdAmeritrade's Think or Swim app; but what apps do YOU use? Please add them to the comments below or give us your opinion on those shown. I'd love to hear from you!…
This has a lot of good information in it. It's in pdf format so you can download it and keep it for future reference..C.pdf
Note: this page contains paid content.
Please, subscribe to get an access.