What We're Reading

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the world has seen its population and the need for natural resources boom.

As more people and wealth translate into the demand for global goods, the prices of commodities—such as energy, agriculture, livestock, and metals—have often followed in sync.

This cycle, which tends to coincide with extended periods of industrialization and modernization, helps in telling a story of human development.

Why are Commodity Prices Cyclical?

Commodity prices go through extended periods during which prices are well above or below their long-term price trend. There are two types of swings in commodity prices: upswings and downswings.

Many economists believe that the upswing phase in super cycles results from a lag between unexpected, persistent, and positive trends to support commodity demand with slow-moving supply, such as the building of a new mine or planting a new crop. Eventually, as adequate supply becomes available and demand growth slows, the

Ms. DiMartino Booth, why is the Federal Reserve bad for America?
Because of its intellectual dishonesty. The Fed noticed around 2009 that if they had had a more reliable and realistic inflation gauge on which to set policy, they would have seen the crisis coming. But despite that recognition, they chose to do nothing about it.

Are there more realistic inflation gauges?
Several Federal Reserve Districts have come up with alternative gauges. The underlying inflation gauge from the New York Fed for example also includes asset price inflation. And it runs about one percentage point higher than what the Fed measure is – they prefer the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the core PCE.

How would monetary policy look like with a more realistic inflation gauge?
Monetary policy would be much different. The Fed would not have been able to maintain a monetary policy as easy as it has done over the last couple of years. Central bankers are hiding behind the core PCE being at 1,6%. The

The US yield curve has (almost) inverted, and this has been making headlines for the last couple of months now. This should come as no surprise, as the yield curve is perhaps the most reliable recession indicator out there. But what does an inverted yield curve tell us about future returns? Our analysis shows that while asset class returns in general are somewhat subdued between the first date on which the yield curve inverts and the start of the recession, the inversion of the yield curve is not followed by extraordinary deviations in returns.

Definition

Before moving over to the results of our analysis, we would like to dwell briefly on the definition of the yield curve, and the combination of maturities in particular. In most empirical research, the yield curve is either defined by the differential between the 10-year and 3-month US Treasury yield (10Y-3M), or the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yield (10Y-2Y). The reasons for preferring one over the other depends on many things, in

Whether you're watching CNBC, Twitter or another news outlet, you're hearing a great deal of talk about the odds increasing that the Fed will drop rates soon.  Everyone's cheering it on..........yet no one's talking about recession possibilities.  Don't say 'recession' on live tv!  Keep that notion out of your head!  At least I believe that's what Trump is thinking as he warms up for his 2020 campaign.  He wants the market "up, up, up".  A strong stock market with plenty of green and profits in your pocket.  If it fails after 2020, so be it.  At least he'll have his re-election and be further away from any prosecutorial attacks for four more years.  If he loses, blame it all on the Democrats!

In the meantime our yield curve continues to invert, or decay if you see it that way; implying a rough road ahead for the U.S. as China and European countries slowing low and behold, the U.S. having a "global market", the U.S. looks to be slowing as well.  Shocker!

Now the US housing market is slo

Maybe you've never heard of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory). But no doubt, as the 2020 election nears, you will. It's the latest contentious buzzword to hit Washington, D.C.

The idea, despite its name, is not new or "modern." But it has set off a heated political and economic debate, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell telling Congress last week that Modern Monetary Policy is "just wrong."

Does Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT, represent a brave new future of ever-expanding government spending to meet Americans' vital needs? Or is it a dangerous idea that could lead to runaway inflation, financial disaster and, ultimately, collapse?

The theory, in a nutshell, says that because the U.S. can borrow in its own currency, it can simply print more money when it needs to pay off its debts. All the Fed has to do is keep interest rates low. Simple. It's an increasingly popular idea among left-leaning economists.

Fed Chairman Powell: MMT Is 'Just Wrong'

Not surprisingly, however, when Fed Chairman Powe

The bulls are back. $SPX up nearly 8% in January and nearly 14% off of the December lows. What slowing global growth? What reduced earnings expectations? Trade wars? Who cares. It’ll all sort itself out, all that matters was the Fed caving in spectacular fashion laying the foundation for the big bull case. The central bank 2 step is back: Dovish + dovish = nothing but higher prices. The lows are in, what else can I buy? This pretty much sums up current sentiment.

And so goes the familiar script during emerging bear markets, a general sense of relief that the lows are in and a return of optimism and greed after an aggressive counter rally following an initial scary drop. Long forgotten are the December lows after a torrent consecutive 6 weeks of higher prices.

While indeed a renewed fully dovish Fed may be all that’s needed to keep 2019 bullish (after all this playbook has worked for the past 10 years) there is evidence that this rally may turn out to be a big fat bull trap.

And it’s no

With the SPX up ~8% in just the last month, increasingly nervous investors who still vividly recall the freefall days of December 2018, are wondering what will stop the unrelenting rally according to JPMorgan's Adam Crisafulli who writes this morning that while there are always risks, none of the (known) ones seem particularly threatening at the moment.

Still, according to the JPM strategist, investors should be wary about chasing the SPX above 16x (i.e. above ~2750) but the index is more likely to touch 16.5x (>2800) than it is to hit 15x (<2600) based on everything known right now.

With that modestly bullish bias in mind, Crisafulli lists 14 things that can go wrong and send stocks sliding once more.

1. TSYs and the USD fail to ratify the Fed optimism – at some point the TSY curve needs to steepen and the USD has to weaken in order to confirm the dovish takeaways from the recent Fed decision.  If TSY yields fall across the board (or even worse, if the curve flattens) and/or the USD sta

U.S. stocks experienced their third straight week of gains, with the S&P 500 Index rising 2.6% and gaining more than 10% since Christmas Day.¹ Investors were encouraged by comments from the Federal Reserve indicating a less aggressive policy stance and a sense that trade issues may be improving. Strong outflows from stock funds have also been an important contrarian indicator that investor capitulation had reached a limit. Several market areas were standout performers last week, including industrials, retail sectors, technology and energy, which was helped by a 7.5% climb in oil prices.¹ A near -term consolidation is possible, given the strong climb over the last few weeks, but a return to December’s lows seems unlikely.

1. The Fed should remain data dependent, which should be good for stocks. Fed comments in October seemed to indicate it would continue to raise rates and sell off its balance sheet for the foreseeable future. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell walked back those comments in

Saxo Bank has a few

Naturally, predictions like this are more for bank PR than education but they have some value.

For one, they're a reminder that unexpected, huge and unpredictable moves happen in markets. And they happen far more often than we expect.

The thing is, they usually happen somewhere you least expect.

As for this set of predictions, let's hope this trader is you (from the report):

"World markets are increasingly full of signs and wonders, and the collapse of volatility seen across asset classes in 2017 was no exception. The historic lows in the VIX and MOVE indices are matched by record highs in stocks and real estate, and the result is a powder keg that is set to blow sky-high as the S&P 500 loses 25% of its value in a rapid, spectacular, one-off move reminiscent of 1987. A whole swathe of short volatility funds are completely wiped out and a formerly unknown long volatility trader realises a 1000% gain and instantly becomes a legend."

Courtesy of ForexLive

It appears they have the votes. Market is responding.

In a modern business era of near-constant disruption, which brands are winning the hearts of consumers the fastest?

Today’s charts look at the brands that are trending upwards. See below for the brands that have gained the most in brand value since last year, as assessed by BrandZ in their report on the world’s 100 most valuable brands.

Onwards and Upwards for Tech

As many big name brands try to find their footing in today’s fast-paced consumer environment, it’s not surprising to see up-and-coming tech brands skyrocketing in value.

In line with growing revenues, tech brands like Amazon, Facebook, and Netflix are also flying high with their brands. Amazon, for example, had its brand value soar 41% since last year to make it the fourth most valuable brand in the world at $139 billion. Chinese tech companies are gaining traction in the eyes of consumers as well, with Tencent and Alibaba both growing their brand values at clips of 20% or higher.

Note: the measure of “brand value”, not to

There is no shortage of cognitive biases out there that can trip up our brains.

By the last count, there are 188 types of these fallible mental shortcuts in existence, and they constantly impede our ability to make the best decisions about our careers, our relationships, and for building wealth over time.

Biases That Plague Investors

In today’s infographic from StocksToTrade, we dive deeper into five of these cognitive biases – specifically the ones that really seem to throw investors and traders for a loop.

Next time you are about to make a major investing decision, make sure you double-check this list!

When we talk about the giant size of Apple, the fortune of Warren Buffett, or the massive amount of global debt accumulated – all of these things sound large, but they are actually extremely different in magnitude.

That’s why visualizing things spatially can give us a better perspective on money and markets.

How Much Money Exists?

This infographic was initially created to show how much money exists in its different forms. For example, to highlight how much physical cash there is in comparison to broader measures of money which include saving and checking account deposits.

Interestingly, what is considered “money” depends on who you are asking.

Are the abstractions created by Central Banks really money? What about gold, bitcoins, or other hard assets?

A New Meaning

However, since we first released this infographic in 2015, “All the World’s Money and Markets” has taken on a different meaning to us and many others. It’s a way of simplifying a complex universe of currencies, assets, and ot

Saxo Bank thinks a slowdown in credit growth is bad news

IF THERE is a consensus at the moment, it is that the global economy is finally managing a synchronised recovery. The purchasing managers' index for global manufacturing is at its highest level for six years; copper, the metal often seen as the most sensitive to global conditions, is up by a quarter since May. 

But Steen Jakobsen of Saxo Bank thinks this strength will not last. His leading indicator is a measure of the change in private sector credit growth. This peaked at the turn of the year and is now heading down sharply. Indeed the change in trend is the most negative since the financial crisis (see chart). Since this indicator leads the economy by 9-12 months, that suggests a significant economic slowdown either late this year or early  in 2018. He says that

This call for a significant slowdown coincides with several facts: the ECB’s QE programme will conclude by end-2017 and will at best be scaled down by €10 billion per

Complex systems are all around us.

By one definition, a complex system is any system that features a large number of interacting components (agents, processes, etc.) whose aggregate activity is nonlinear (not derivable from the summations of the activity of individual components) and typically exhibits hierarchical self-organization under selective pressures.

In today’s infographic from Meraglim we use accumulating snow and an impending avalanche as an example of a complex system – but really, such systems can be found everywhere. Weather is another complex system, and ebb and flow of populations is another example.

Markets are Complex Systems

Just like in the avalanche example, where various factors at the top of a mountain (accumulating volumes of snow, weather, temperature, geology, gravity, etc.) make up a complex system that is difficult to predict, markets are similarly complex.

In fact, markets meet all the properties of complex systems, as outlined by scientists:

1. Diverse
Sys

China’s big electric vehicle push is about to get even bigger: The country is planning to end the sale of fossil fuel-powered vehicles entirely, with regulators working currently on a timetable of when the ban will ultimately take effect, according to Bloomberg.

China is the world’s largest auto market, with 28.03 million vehicles sold last year, a boost in demand of 13.7 percent vs. 2015 sales numbers. The nation has already done a lot to incentivize manufacturers to develop and sell new EVs, including allowing foreign automakers to create a third joint venture with local automakers (a standard requirement for doing business in the country for auto OEMs) so long as it’s dedicated to the creation of EVs exclusively.

The government has also created a number of incentive programs for OEMs, including subsidies. This will add to its positive efforts to drive more EV sales in China with the ultimate negative condition on the other side – at some point, automakers just won’t be able to do b