What We're Reading

When Microsoft introduces its long-awaited Windows 8 operating system Friday, it will be the first Windows rollout to face real competition since, well, forever. Today, smartphones and tablets do almost all of the day-to-day tasks a PC does -- including sending e-mail, surfing the Web, and editing photos -- and do some of them better. Already, tech investors, long accustomed to a lift from Windows, are primed for disappointment.

At the same time, big data -- massive data centers that can marshall tremendous computing power -- is upending the traditional network, pushing information-processing into the palm of your hand. And it's happening faster than almost anybody expected, as last week's spooky earnings surprises at Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) and chip makers Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) made clear.

So who are the winners and losers in a post-PC world? Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Samsung Electronics (005930.Korea) certainly stand to gain, and EMC (EMC) will be a

Seven Varieties of Deflation

By Dr. A. Gary Shilling

Inflation in the U.S. has historically been a wartime phenomenon, including not only shooting wars but also the Cold War and the War on Poverty. That's when the federal government vastly overspends its income on top of a robust private economy—obviously not the case today when government stimulus isn't even offsetting private sector weakness. Deflation reigns in peacetime, and I think it is again, with the end of the Iraq engagement and as the unwinding of Afghanistan expenditures further reduce military spending.

Chronic Deflation

Few agree with my forecast of chronic deflation. They've never seen anything but inflation in their business careers or lifetimes, so they think that's the way God made the world. Few can remember much about the 1930s, the last time deflation reigned. Furthermore, we all tend to have inflation biases. When we pay higher prices, it's because of the inflation devil himself, but lower prices are a result of o

[Edited October 15, 2012 to add Reuters link and Citicorp PDF ]

Natty outperform black gold?  Texas tea?  Yes it's happening and the intriguing part is it could continue.  It's unimaginable, unheard of, pure heresy but it at the same time, appears to be the Captain Obvious trade to these novice aging eyes.  While I'm no guru and don't begin to know it's intricacies, allow me to explain from a technical analysis and common sense point of view.  [CLICK ON ANY CHART TO ENLARGE]

#1  Falling crude oil demand in developed countries continues and this decline is expected to continue going forward......while increasing demand is expected in developing countries however I doubt quite a rapid increase given the status of global economies at this point in time.  Main point however, is that the U.S. itself is not expecting to increase its demand any time soon.

On a side note, the EIA expects more U.S. homes to use more heating fuels this Winter. [See report] BP, Shell and others are pushin

I just shorted NZD/USD @ .8025, with a .7839 target, and a .8042 stop.
Thesis: NFP numbers can be fudged for politcal purposes, and a positive surprise there would mean a higher US$.
P.S.: Couple the above thesis with SLV's doji & hyper-extended RSI, and we may have a shorting bonanza.

Sticking my neck out here, saying i think SPX drops to no lower than 1335-1325 by March 21, and that will be a major support level, lasting for at least several weeks. Likely it will not drop to support in a straight line---there will probably be some rallies on the way to support.

BEIJING—By lowering China's growth target to 7.5% this year, Premier Wen Jiabao has signaled that an era of supercharged expansion may be coming to an end, a shift with profound implications for countries like Australia and Brazil that have prospered from red-hot Chinese demand for commodities.

The NPC will set key economic priorities for 2012 but as the WSJ's Aaron Back tells Deborah Kan, it's often what goes on behind the scenes that's most telling.

China has announced it is lowering its target growth forecast to 7.5% from 8%. Not a big move but enough to send a few tremors through the world's financial markets. Andrew Peaple and Martin Essex discuss what this means for the global economy. Photo: AP

The adjustment suggests that China's leaders have reached a comfort level with slower growth, and that they don't intend to stimulate the economy through state-led investment, as they have in the past. Instead, they plan to let a long-touted shift away from expor

COT is for trending, not timing. So I see Steve Briese's view as a cue to tighten stops, but not yet exit risk-on positions. Looking for SPX 1370 before we get a pause or reversal. Would change my outlook if we see all three of the following: 1) audusd below 1.75, 2) usdchf above .9152, and 3) spx below 1332.

Much has been made of Walgreen's fight with Express Scripts and Express Scripts' subsequent denial of a new benefits contract with Walgreen's. Walgreen's stock has been pummeled. Is this an overreaction or is the big haircut deserved? To answer the question we have to look inside the numbers.

First let's look at Walgreen's pharmacy business. The pharmacy accounts for 65% of the company's business. For fiscal 2011 Walgreen's filled 819 million prescriptions or 1 in 5 retail prescriptions in the United States. Express Scripts accounted for roughly 88 million of those prescriptions. Of those 88 million, Walgreen's has secured new agreements(dropped Express and stayed with Walgreen's) with about 10 million. So Walgreen's will lose about 78 million prescriptions because of the Express Scripts situation. That would be a 10% reduction in total prescriptions approximately. So using a little fuzzy math and some generalization, Express Scripts accounts for 6.5% of Walgreen's revenue. A recent

I'm asked in chat a lot about this bank or that bank and what my analysis is of them.  My answer is always the same.  I can't analyze, on a fundamental basis, any of the big banks.  I've tried, believe me, I've tried.  Hell, I downloaded the annual report of BAC for 2010, grabbed some irish whiskey, a rosetta stone, and locked myself in a room by myself for the weekend.  I emerged at the end of the weekend bruised, hung over, and with empty bottle in hand.  The bruises were from banging my head against the wall.  The hang over? From trying to wrap my head around the riddle inside a conundrum wrapped up in an enigma that is the financials of Bank of America. 

I have no idea how they make any money. In fact, this is why rumors work so well to take the stock down; nobody understands the balance sheet, so they figure the rumor has a possibilty of truth to it.  As much as I respect some of the "value" guys that are in the name, Bruce Berkowitz to name one, I can tell you that they probably d

What do I look for in the balance sheet that tells me a stock is a good buy for the long run. Which sectors would be the most likely to take off next year. Most are saying the Tech stocks are the best play

Thanks

Originally written by Ari Kuchinsky Ari Kuchinsky and posted at TheReformedBroker

What if Tim Tebow was a stock? Most importantly, Tebow would bring pride to the
ticker $TBOW. It has been hijacked by Trunkbow International ($TBOW) (a Chinese
IPO from February 2011 and down 61% YTD). The Chinese stole his ticker and he
should be pissed.

How would it have played out so far? Tebow would have started trading on April 23,
2010—the day after the 2010 NFL Draft. Most draft gurus projected Tebow as a mid-
round draft choice. The valuation of $TBOW would have been more polarizing than
the valuation of Apple. We’ve seen Apple fanboys. Imagine $TBOW disciples flooding
Twitter, Stocktwits and the blogosphere.

We learned it only took one buyer to set the value of $TBOW. The Broncos valued
Tebow at $9.7 million. In a thin market with only 32 franchises, valuation can be volatile.
It doesn’t matter if some franchises thought $TBOW had no value—the highest bidder
sets the price. Similarly, Groupon (

This originally posted by Carl Swenlin from DecisionPoint via StockChart.com [see link below]

LONG-BOND YIELD: HOW LOW CAN IT GO?

Even the most bullish of bulls have finally seen the light.  From this weeks Stocktwits post.

A banking (currency) system is an act of faith: it survives only for as long as people believe it will” – Michael Lewis, Boomerang, 2011

Only 15 days ago, there were so many charts that looked ready to break out and participate in a year-end market rally. Fast forward two weeks of political inaction in the face of rising European sovereign debt yields and equity markets across the world look like Niagara Falls. A typical story of 2011 – the obvious rarely happens, the unexpected constantly occurs. Constant false breakouts and breakdowns that 2011 brought has gradually conditioned market participants to shrink their investing horizons. For better or for worse, we have all become traders.

There is an apparent crisis of confidence in capital markets. No one wants to own European bonds, which makes the cost of borrowing unattainable for countries like Italy and Spain. The lack of trust often le

News from Italy on November 8/9 set up a great day trade for shorting eurusd. An even better shorting opportunity will come when (not if) France becomes the next domino to fall.
But medium-term, the downside for EUR is less certain. The fed does not want a too-strong USD. So as debt woes in Europe spread, strengthening the USD, the fed will likely take steps to counuter the dollar"s rise via QE3.

The Three Stages of Primary Bull Markets and Primary Bear Markets

Primary Bull Market - Stage 1 - Accumulation
Hamilton noted that the first stage of a bull market was largely indistinguishable from the last reaction rally of a bear market. Pessimism, which was excessive at the end of the bear market, still reigns at the beginning of a bull market. It is a period when t

This from one of my favorite bloggers who has been investing for over 40 years, StockChartist.

Even though it feels frustration looking at a chart that stretches years, I find it worthwhile to periodically update the "Regression to the Mean" graph because it helps keep our expectations in check. Whether today we are bearish or bullish about prospects for the market's near-term future, this "Regression to the Mean" will help moderate our views and help contain them within the realm of possibilities.

First, some background is necessary and warranted. I had accumulated monthly statistics on the S&P 500 Index going back to 1939 while working on my book, Run with the Herd, during the Financial Crisis Crash in 2007-08. What I had discovered was that when viewed within the broad sweep of history, the market had risen risen at a 7.5% rate, through bull market and bear, war and peace, economic boom and bust. In order to be able to make that statement, I added a boundary 44% on either side of

This from Nouriel Roubini @ Project Syndicate "Unless the relative economic roles of the market and the state are rebalanced, the protests of 2011 will become more severe, with social and political instability eventually harming long-term economic growth and welfare"

NEW YORK – This year has witnessed a global wave of social and political turmoil and instability, with masses of people pouring into the real and virtual streets: the Arab Spring; riots in London; Israel’s middle-class protests against high housing prices and an inflationary squeeze on living standards; protesting Chilean students; the destruction in Germany of the expensive cars of “fat cats”; India’s movement against corruption; mounting unhappiness with corruption and inequality in China; and now the “Occupy Wall Street” movement in New York and across the United States.

While these protests have no unified theme, they express in different ways the serious concerns of the world’s working and middle classes about th

Video quality is not great as expected, but still, a good watch

3 downloadable parts in rar files, download all 3 then extract from part 1 using WinRar

http://www.mediafire.com/?h2qqb5mq225j4bd

http://www.mediafire.com/?4olngju9xeaycj4

http://www.mediafire.com/?x54pnsnnb7jg943

Originally posted @ http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Bank-Gx62.pdf

Beaten-down small-cap stocks could be ready to rally, some say

among professional investors.

“If we’re not in an economic recession,

we could see a decent rally in small-cap

stocks,” said Steven DeSanctis, small-cap

strategist at Bank of America Merrill

Lynch inNew York.

Small-cap stocks have lost so much

value this year — about 25 percent since

their late-April peak, as measured by the

small-cap Russell 2000 index — that De-

Sanctis thinks “flat is the new up”: If they

simply end the year where they started,

investors will see about a 13 percent rally

from where they are now. Large-cap

stocks slid about 18 percent in the same

period.

Bank of America sees a 40 percent

chance of recession, he added.

“That’s really the question that people

have to answer for themselves — ‘Do we

think a recession will occur?’ ” said Matthew

Litfin, a portfolio manager at William

Blair who invests in small- and midsiz

From the learned Professors @ econbrowser.com http://t.co/Cns3qjD

In the excitement over the debt ceiling debate, the increasing extent of fiscal drag, and anxiety about an economic slowdown, I have neglected discussion of the dollar. I still think that continued dollar depreciation is necessary to effect global rebalancing. I’d prefer it to happen by way of expansionary monetary policy, but we might get dollar depreciation as intransigent policymakers work hard to destroy the safe-haven role of US Treasury securities. [0] So, while all eyes are on Jackson Hole, here’s a quick, stream of consciousness review of some dollar-related issues.

Competitiveness

In Figure 1, I present the long history of the real value of the dollar, to provide perspective. Notice that the dollar has been declining in value since early 2002.

Figure 1: Log real value of USD against a broad basket of currencies (blue), against a basket of major currencies (red), both March 1973=0. Source: Federal Reserve Bo