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What Trump Policies Are S&P Companies Citing In Q4

With Inauguration Day here, politics and government policy will continue to be a focus area for the markets. Over the past few months, President Trump has outlined a number of areas for potential changes in government policy.

During each corporate earnings season, it is not unusual for companies to comment on subjects that had an impact on their earnings and revenues for a given quarter or may have an impact on earnings and revenues for future quarters. While the majority of S&P 500 companies will report earnings results for Q4 2016 over the next few weeks, approximately 8% of the companies in the index (42 companies) have already reported earnings results for the fourth quarter (through Wednesday). Have companies in the S&P 500 been commenting on government policies that may change under the Trump administration during their earnings conference calls for the fourth quarter?

To answer this question, FactSet searched for the terms “Trump” and “administration” in the conference call tran

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Netflix Now Surpasses DVD And Blue Ray Sales

Marking a major milestone in home entertainment’s shift to digital formats, video streaming subscription revenues surpassed DVD / Blu-ray sales in the United States for the first time in 2016. While U.S. consumers spent $6.23 billion on subscriptions to services such as Netflix (up 23% from 2015), DVD and Blu-ray sales dropped 9.5 percent to $5.49 billion, according to the Digital Entertainment Group's year-end report.

Looking at the home entertainment market as a whole, it is clear that the future of video distribution is digital. While consumer spending on streaming subscriptions, video on demand and electronic sell-through increased in 2016, all physical formats, both sell-through and rental, suffered double-digit declines. Digital business models now account for 56% of home entertainment spending and could soon surpass box office earnings to become the largest source of income for the entertainment industry.

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The Winners And Losers Of A Cashless Society

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Courtesy of: The Money Project

 

There is a global push by lawmakers to eliminate the use of physical cash around the world. This movement is often referred to as “The War on Cash”, and there are three major players involved:

1. The Initiators
Who?
Governments, central banks.
Why?
The elimination of cash will make it easier to track all types of transactions – including those made by criminals.

2. The Enemy
Who?
Criminals, terrorists
Why?
Large denominations of bank notes make illegal transactions easier to perform, and increase anonymity.

3. The Crossfire
Who?
Citizens
Why?
The coercive elimination of physical cash will have potential repercussions on the economy and social liberties.

Is Cash Still King?

Cash has always been king – but starting in the late 1990s, the convenience of new technologies have helped make non-cash transactions to become more viable:

  • Online banking
  • Smartphones
  • Payment technologies
  • Encryption

By 2015, there were 426 billion cashless transactions worldwide

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Admin

facebook-1602262_1920_1_2.jpg?width=400The impending IPO of Snap Inc., the parent of social media platform Snapchat, is shrouded in mystery, typical of the way business is run at the company. To maintain control of the company, its founders Evan Spiegel and Bobby Murphy are expected to reportedly hold about 70 percent of the voting power following the IPO, with new investors getting no voting rights.

Ad Dollars On Upward Trajectory

Notwithstanding the limited visibility into the IPO, advertisers are warming up to Snapchat. Ad firm WPP's CEO Martin Sorrel told CNBC that its clients spend about $90 million on Snapchat in 2016, which is a notable increase from the $30 million WPP predicted at the start of the year. Given the ad spend statistics, Sorrel believes the company's total revenues could be higher than what the markets have been anticipating.

Advertising Revenues Of Facebook, Twitter

Quarterly filing by Facebook Inc FB 0.64% showed that ad revenue totaled $6.82 billion in the September quarter of 2016, with 50 percent

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Trump Comes Out On China And Russia

BN-RQ265_TRUMPW_GR_20170113205623.jpg?width=400President-elect Donald Trump suggested he would be open to lifting sanctions on Russia and wasn’t committed to a longstanding agreement with China over Taiwan—two signs that he would use any available leverage to realign the U.S.’s relationship with its two biggest global strategic rivals.

In an hourlong interview, Mr. Trump said that, “at least for a period of time,” he would keep intact sanctions against Russia imposed by the Obama administration in late December in response to Moscow’s alleged cyberattacks to influence November’s election. But he suggested he might do away with those penalties if Russia proved helpful in battling terrorists and reaching other goals important to the U.S.

“If you get along and if Russia is really helping us, why would anybody have sanctions if somebody’s doing some really great things?” he said.

He also said he wouldn’t commit to America’s agreement with China that Taiwan wasn’t to be recognized diplomatically, a policy known as “One China,” until he

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When Chips Can't Get Smaller. Enter Nanotechnoogy

Every year the silicon computer chip shrinks in size by half and doubles in power, enabling our devices to become more mobile and accessible. But what happens when our chips can't get any smaller? George Tulevski researches the unseen and untapped world of nanomaterials. His current work: developing chemical processes to compel billions of carbon nanotubes to assemble themselves into the patterns needed to build circuits, much the same way natural organisms build intricate, diverse and elegant structures. Could they hold the secret to the next generation of computing?

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managers.jpg?width=300

Individuals from less privileged backgrounds may face higher barriers to entry into prestigious positions, meaning only the most skilled advance and succeed.


In Family Descent as a Signal of Managerial Quality: Evidence from Mutual Funds (NBER Working Paper No. 22517), Oleg Chuprinin and Denis Sosyura find that mutual fund managers from poor families consistently achieve better investment results than fund managers from wealthier backgrounds. The researchers also find significant differences in promotion patterns and trading styles between these two types of fund managers.

Previous studies about the relationship between managers' upbringing and their performance have focused on educational differences, including whether the managers attended elite universities or had access to education-related networks of influential people who could later help boost their careers. Such studies tend to find that managers with a stronger educational background tend to deliver better performance.

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Admin

Oligarch vs Drain The Swamp. Who Wins:

1291368?profile=RESIZE_1024x1024So the year begins and with it a new presidency. Everyone has ideas how best to invest your money. Simple indexing is the least expensive way to manage capital; no, smart beta is superior; this year we are told (once again) will be when active stock-picking makes its triumphant return.

Regardless of how you choose to allocate your assets, there is another way; a much better way; a method that cannot fail in its brilliance and simplicity. Go with the POTUS indexes.

Direct your attention to the relentless tweeting of the man who soon will be president. There is valuable information in those 140 characters that can move markets and alter perceptions of corporate fundamentals. This has real alpha-generating possibilities. Whoever is managing your favorite 401(k), hedge fund or trading account should take note.

To help you make sense of this, we have created two indexes based on Donald Trump's tweet and other pre-presidential utterances.

Before we get to the specific stocks, I want to o

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Admin

Last year was a bad one for many companies selling expensive fashion, handbags, and jewelry. For the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, the global market for personal luxury goods failed to grow, stalling at €249 billion (about $258 billion).  Will Trumps tax proposal send their sails soaring or will his proposed tariffs interfere?

The good news is that 2017 should see a return to growth, according to a Dec. 28 report on the global luxury market by management consulting firm Bain & Company, only it won’t look anything like the boom years from 2010 to 2015, when global sales of such goods jumped 45%, fueled by Chinese consumers with high-end appetites. The slowing of China’s economy and its government’s ongoing crackdown on corruption, paired with turmoil in the US and Europe from Brexit, terrorism, and the US presidential election, have created a “new normal” of low single-digit growth and intense competition. The years ahead will produce “clear winners and losers,” Bain sa

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amazonpatentafc.jpeg?quality=80&strip=all&w=320&width=750

Amazon’s aerial dreams aren’t limited to drone deliveries.

In April, Amazon was awarded a patent (unearthed by a CB Insights analyst on Dec. 28 ) for Zeppelin-like warehouses in the skies. Amazon wants to create an “airborne fulfillment center” (AFC) to hover at altitudes of around 45,000 feet and spit out delivery drones with customers’ orders.

The designs suggest that the AFC will either be supported by an airship or incorporated into one. “An airship, or dirigible, is a type of aerostat or lighter-than-air aircraft which can navigate through the air under its own power,” the patent explains. “Airships gain their lift from gas that is less dense than the surrounding air, such as helium or hot air.” Not being fixed on the ground like conventional distribution centers has its perks: The AFC can change locations depending on factors likes weather and expected or actual demand.

Earlier this month, Amazon tested its first drone delivery in the United Kingdom, dropping off an Amazon Fire

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Admin

The Trump Effect On Currencies

trump-effect-on-currencies.jpg
Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Rhetoric has already had an impact on currencies in a big way

Targeting companies or entire nations on Twitter is an unprecedented and controversial method of communication for a President-elect – but one can’t argue with its effectiveness so far.

In today’s chart, we take a look at Donald Trump’s rather unconventional form of “monetary policy”, and how it has potentially influenced the U.S. dollar and five other major currencies since his election in November.

Ready, Aim, Tweet

A preview of President-elect Trump’s “America First” directive can already be seen on Twitter.

Trump’s infamous account, which is followed by 18.8 million people, is being used every day to highlight the potential winners and losers of future policies.

And markets are listening.

Currency % Change (vs. USD)
Russian Ruble 7.7%
Canadian Dollar 0.4%
Chinese Yuan -1.5%
Euro -5.0%
Mexican Peso -13.4%

The above table shows change in the value of foreign currencies ag

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Admin

S&P500 Earnings With Trump Over The Shoulder

Before I present the insight on expected earnings ahead, there is one point I wish to make; that being Trump.  If you're not following our President elect on Twitter, you should get with it now.  Some may say it's not "Presidential" to be on TWTR but our commander and chief does what he wishes, and he wishes to scare whomever he can.  At the very least, throw him up as a column on TweetDeck and watch the charts fly when he mentions a name. 

Now while AMZN and GM were formerly expecting good growth in 2017, you will notice that both are now on Trumps radar for taxation and import/export fees which explains their recent trading action.  There seems to be no love lost between AMZN owner Jeff Bezos.  Even Trumps comments on taxation such as “If @amazon ever had to pay fair taxes, its stock would crash and it would crumble like a paper bag." should leave investors more than a tad concerned.  At this point, I feel we'll see quite a bit of this concern over China/Mexico/taxation/tariffs in th

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Admin

The Death Of Tradtional Retail vs The Size Of Amazon

The Extraordinary Size of Amazon in One Chart

The Extraordinary Size of Amazon in One Chart

It’s bigger than most brick and mortar retailers together

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

What has more value: all major publicly traded department stores in the United States, or Amazon?

Amazon takes the cake, and its no contest.

Add together the market caps of Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Nordstrom, Kohl’s, JCPenney, Sears, and Macy’s, it amounts to a significant $297.8 billion:

Brick & Mortar Store 2016 Value ($B)
Total $297.8
Sears $1.1
JCPenney $2.6
Nordstrom $8.3
Kohl's $8.8
Macy's $11.0
Best Buy $13.2
Target $40.6
Walmart $212.4

However, it’s not enough to beat Amazon.

The online retailer alone is worth $356 billion, making it one of the largest companies by market capitalization in the world.

The Death of Traditional Retail

Ten years ago, the future of brick and mortar retail sill looked bright. The aforementioned retailers were worth a collective $400 billion, and A

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Admin

Techs Year In Review 2016 With Trump In The Wings

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The image was startling, but a look into what could be tech's immediate future.

After being ostracized by the tech industry for most of the election year, there sat venture capitalist Peter Thiel, beaming, to the left of President-elect Donald Trump at the Trump Tower Tech summit in mid-December.

Around him was a ring of glum-faced and pensive tech titans, including Apple's Tim Cook, Amazon's Jeff Bezos, Alphabet CEO Larry Page and Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg.

Silicon Valley's billionaire leaders had disavowed Trump during the campaign, throwing their weight behind rival Hillary Clinton. Only Thiel stumped for the real-estate mogul, and after the tech industry had turned on him for that and his role in Gawker's failure, he was luxuriating in the I-told-you-so moment.

The display of power portends a roiling year or two in tech. Trump railed against Amazon and Apple in tweets about corporate taxes and cyber security; now, he's likely to shape those issues as well as immigration reform,

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Admin

Wall Streets Top Picks For 2017 With Trump

new-years-day-1924608_1920.jpg?width=300We are into the homestretch of 2016, and the markets have seen strong upside this year, benefiting from the domestic economy's resilience and the election of Donald Trump.

With just four sessions to go, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been a up a solid 14.4 percent, the S&P 500 has risen 10.8 percent and the NASDAQ Composite is 9.1 percent higher — with all the three major averages trading off their all-time closing highs.

Among the ten S&P sectors, eight have been in the green. Old economy stocks such as energy, material, industrial, financial, utility and telecom are all up by double-digit percentages. Technology stocks are also up decently. However, the healthcare sector has taken a hit.

Though it is tough to replicate the performance of 2016, given the tougher comparisons and the uncertainty around policies amid the political leadership transition, Wall Street does see some opportunities that are compelling.

Here is a compilation of some top picks recommended by Wall Street an

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Admin

Is The Fed About To Experience A Repeat Of 2016?

In the most recent Summary of Economic Projections, Fed officials penciled in three 25bp rate hikes for 2017. The reality, however, could be very different. We all remember how “four” became “one” in 2016. The median dots are neither a promise nor an official forecast. As 2016 progressed, forecasts associated with a lower path of SEP “dots” evolved as the consensus view of policymakers. Will the same happen this year? I don’t think so; it is hard to see the Fed on pause for another twelve months.

As a starting point, I think it best to assume the US economy is near full-employment. But the US economy was near full-employment at this time last year as well. I think the key difference between then and now is that then the after-effect of the oil price slide and dollar surge placed a drag on the US economy sufficient to ease hiring pressure. At the same time, labor force participation perked up, setting the stage for a flat unemployment rate for most of the year. Inflationary pressures e

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Admin

It's Not What You Think. Market Myths Debunked

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"A lie told often enough becomes the truth" - Vladimir Lenin

Imagine for a minute you lived centuries ago when people believed the earth was flat, or the earth revolved around the sun, or that planets were Gods, or that disease was angry spirits or supernatural powers. You'd have an explanation for everything ... only it would be wrong. And that "wrongness" would stand in the way of true understanding and true progress until they were discarded as falsehoods.

And so it is with the Stock Market. Let me explain.

First, let me be perfectly clear. I'm a statistician so I'm not referring to philosophical or political or gut feelings or anything other than Statistical Misrepresentations. Fact, not opinion.

I can hardly go a day without reading an article or hearing a TV pundit or someone regurgitate misconceptions that are so integrated in our minds ... we believe them to be the truth.

These misconceptions cause us to make investing mistakes because we take them as axiomatic when they are

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Admin

On December 12, U.S. President Elect Donald Trump took to Twitter to rail against Lockheed Martin for the perceived waste of its next-gen fighter jet program. In his tweet, Trump said:

News of the tweet consumed CNBC and other news outlets for much of the day, and Lockheed’s stock tumbled in the immediate aftermath of the comments before rallying to close down 2.5% on the day.


Trump’s comments on the program's cost were made within the context of the government spending that his campaign promised to curtail, and as a heavy government supplier, Lockheed was an expected target. In fact, using FactSet’s Supply Chain data we can see that Lockheed receives a whopping 78% of its revenue from the U.S. government.

 

Which Targets Might Be Next?

Given Trump’s predilection to delivering his thoughts d

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