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Amazon By the Numbers: Cyber Weekend Spending

Some may say that technical analysis is 'bunk' but it's just that which caused me to short AMZN.  Now you can say they're #1 when it comes to online sales but my question is, has their growth hit a plateau?  Trading at 170x p/e, anything is possible. (click chart to enlarge)  From an investor point of view, I would take some off the table at this point and invest it in banks, industrials and insurers.  But let's take a look at sales: 

Amazon sports some pretty startling numbers. Let’s dive into various reports for a close look.

Amazon captured 31% of online spending over Cyber Weekend

amazon-cyber

CNBC reports…

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Thanksgiving Weekend E-Commerce Roundup

When Americans started celebrating Thanksgiving in the 19th century, it was about cherishing the blessings of the year, particularly the year’s harvest. These days however, it appears as if many people spend the holiday thinking about what they might need rather than what they already have.

Over the past few years, Thanksgiving weekend has grown to become a huge shopping extravaganza both on- and offline. Retailers try to outdo each other in offering the best Black Friday / Cyber Monday deals and consumers willingly jump at the chance to kick off their holiday shopping and snap up some bargains.

Not surprisingly, this year’s Thanksgiving weekend saw online shopping records shattered once again. According to…

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Bonds Haven't Even Begun To Price In Trumpflation

Since the election the financial markets have been trying to price in “Trumpflation.” This is the idea that the combination of infrastructure spending, tax cuts, rising deficits, immigration curbs and protectionist policies could reverse the disinflationary trends we have witnessed over the past few decades and more dramatically since the financial crisis. The selloff in the bond market amid surging interest rates might be the single most important piece of evidence in this regard.

Over the summer I noted we were likely witnessing the final blow-off stage of the bond bull market (see this and this). Since then the long bond has fallen nearly 15% leading many pundits to conclude it has already begun pricing in…

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Retail Earnings Estimates Now That Black Friday Is Here

With “Black Friday” here, the performance of retailers will be a focus for the markets. As of today, which retailers in the S&P 500 are projected to see the highest and lowest year-over-year earnings growth for the fourth quarter? Which retailers in the index have seen the largest upward and downward revisions to earnings estimates for Q4 over the past two months?

In terms of year-over-year earnings growth, seven of the 13 retail sub-industries in the S&P 500 are predicted to report growth in earnings for the fourth quarter, led by the Internet & Direct Marketing Retail (23.6%), Food Distributors (14.3%), and Home Improvement Retail (13.8%) sub-industries. On the other hand, six of the 13 retail sub-industries in the S&P 500 are predicted to report declines in earnings, led by the Home Furnishing Retail (-16.0%), Hypermarkets & Super Centers (-13.5%), and Food Retail (-9.8%) sub-industries.…

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Big Tech Lost A Boatload When Trump Killed TPP

The giant international trade deal known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership died last week. It was supposed to be the largest regional trade deal in history.

The TPP itself was a massive 30-chapter lawbook that would have freed access to markets for things like car manufacturing, data storage, online commerce, intellectual property and medicines.

Hoards of technology and media companies supported the trade deal.…

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Industries Most At Risk In A Trade War With China

The U.S. and global economy has reacted in mixed fashion since the election of Donald Trump as 45th President of the United States. One of the most significant potential fallouts though, is a trade war with China. Trump has spoken out against the current situation with China on a great number of occasions. Now he is in a position to potentially see through his pledges, some fear the emergence of a tit-for-tat trade war between the two countries. As the infographic below shows, the industries most endangered by any such war would be transportation and tech.…

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Repeal Of Obamacare Not A Simple Task

As the market partied this week, believing that Obamacare would be smashed and their premiums would revert back to lower levels, I sat and chuckled.  You're already spending money you haven't received in terms of lower premiums but there's always a price. Always. Already the "costs" of repealing ACA are being calculated and surprise surprise, it won't be free or easy.  In fact QZ ponders it will cost "us" Billions but let's examine the possibilities. …

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Is The Stock Market Rally Over?

As technicians battle over whether our "hated" seven year rally still has legs, I continue to return and ask myself "has anything truly blown up?".  I do personally believe the US Dollar will continue it strength and that will continue to put pressure on commodities, dividend payers and discretionary.  Financials and insurers will push higher.  Can the rest of the boat survive?  Are earnings guidance showing a 'rosey' picture of the future?  Will Trump win?  Too many unknowns for me.  This post, using monthly charts, brings me back to earth.  While I have no need to catch the absolute top, it gives me specific areas which need to be defined.  I remain cautious and yes, have numerous short positions as well as…

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Energy Of The Future. Demand By 2050

When it comes to energy, there is one matter everyone agrees on. For the near future, at least, the world will need more of it—and how it is produced and used will be a critical factor in the future of the global economy, geopolitics, and the environment. With that in mind, McKinsey took a hard look at the data, modeling energy demand from the bottom up, by country, sector, and fuel mix, with an analysis of current conditions, historical data, and country-level assessments. On this basis, McKinsey’s Global Energy Insights team has put together a description of the global energy landscape to 2050.

It is important to remember that this is a business-as-usual scenario. That is, it does not anticipate…

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Election Day in the United States is, at last, almost here. Similar to any other major event, investors will be looking to what effect the presidential election will have on the stock market for the rest of the year and beyond. One way we can predict this movement is to analyze the historical price performance of the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average during past election cycles. Here we'll examine:

  • How does the stock market perform in the final two months of presidential election years?
  • What effect does the elected political party have on stock market performance in the years following the election?
  • Which sectors are the top performers during election years and post-election?


S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average Underperform during Election Years

During presidential election years going back to 1928, the S&P 500 index has been in the positive 73% of the time (16 out of…

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