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Bulls Must Be Patient

Things rising now are for the most part due to those (few) who see better earnings ahead, an earnings beat or rising on the struggling dollar........while peers get a definitely smaller bid....or none.  It's a struggle.  You'll notice more losing trades recently as markets are searching out the "good".  Some are talking recession (I don't buy that) while others struggle to find a way to get "through" the soft patch; waiting for 2016.  

In futures, volume has dropped off the cliff overnight.  It's amazing (and worth noting).

One things that's stood out for me is the increase in dividends and buybacks.  Yes, there's been an increase and new ones begun while O&G cut theirs.  Isn't it interesting how the market will do whatever it can to keep people in stocks.  Just sayin'.

AMZN is leading the Nasdaq with AAPL reporting this week but MRVL just announced a much …

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Now Do You Believe? Sell In May Began Early

The majority of sector ETFs closed their week below their 50d with energy having filled the gap.....and found sellers waiting there.

SPX itself found sellers at $2100 (clearly we weren't the only ones selling) which is 17x earnings.  More and more are accepting reality that earnings have dropped the most in six years and the Fed (with no QE) will most likely begin to slowly raise interest rates in September.  Don't believe me, just ask Barclays.

  • US dollar found buyers at the 10week sma, prior support.  Yes, they're taking profits.  Will it continue?  It's nonetheless weighing on U.S.…

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Time To Ring The Register

Traders dumped high fliers and the broader stock market was slammed amid worries about the first profit decline in six years and more signs of nagging weakness in the U.S. economy.

Stocks fell sharply, as the VIX [ .VIX 15.44  +1.82 (+13.36%) ] jumped more than 13 percent. The Dow [ .DJI 17718.54  -292.60 (-1.62%) ] was off 292 points at 17,718 Wednesday, and the S&P 500 [ .INX 2061.05  -30.45 (-1.46%) ] fell nearly 1.5 percent to 2061. The Nasdaq [ .IXIC 4876.52  -118.21 (-2.37%) ], affected by selling in tech and biotech, lost…

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U.S. Dollar Update

As global central banks continue their race to devalue their currency in hopes of supporting their own weak economies (most recently Bank of Israel unexpectedly cutting their base interest rate overnight by 15bps from 25bp to 10bp) global money flows continue to seek safe haven in the U.S. dollar.  And everyone agrees there is no end in sight near term.

In fact the daily chart is in a beautifully, tight bollinger band squeeze which I feel is going to break even higher.

Pressure looks to continue for large cap multinationals as currency strength will continue to pressure balance sheets with overseas sales.  A great time for the consumer to take a vacation across the pond however as your greenback outperforms every currency out there.

Bragging rights in a weak…

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Random Notes

Life has intervened of late however I felt I would post my random thoughts viewing my port yesterday:

  • Russia is still working. RSX at it’s 100d today. I will add more if it comes back to the 50d http://screencast.com/t/Eh88iqLP   Long hold, definitely.  Throw it in a drawer and forget about it.

  • Buffet lowered his XOM stake and bought DE.  DE Monthly sure looks like its coiled up for something. Buffet obviously thinks new all time highs http://screencast.com/t/rlyFa0yzLeb  DE earnings this Friday bmo. I'd be long common and get put protection.  Buy or add on any selloff.  Daily view, bouncing off that 50% fib (to me) equals good chance it wants to challenge/break the high…

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Spruce Up Your Home Without Hiring a Professional

Depending on the condition of your home, the list of upgrades required to make it the home of your dreams might seem daunting and impossible to complete on your own.  Hiring a professional is not always a bad idea, especially when major work needs to be done to make a home safe to reside in.  But many times hiring a professional is not necessary if all the home needs is some tender love and care from its owners.  So before scouring the internet for the best contractor in your area, first determine how many of the upgrades you can complete on your own.
Why do-it-yourself projects are worth the time
You might have the skills to complete home improvement projects on your own, but have little time to do so.  You might have even heard rumors that do-it-yourself projects can be even more costly than hiring a professional to complete the projects.  You might be limited on time, so hiring a…

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Gold Losing Its Luster

I'm back from Illinois after "life intervened" and I rushed out the door and gold has done exactly what I felt it would do.  In this previous post I felt that the 100 week SMA would pose a resistance and if you think about it, it makes complete sense.

  • From a season standpoint, gold doesn't have much demand until last Summer when Indian festival and wedding season kicks in followed by jewelry gift giving as the Winter holidays approach.  (see seasonal chart)
  • Inflation is very low = no need to hedge with gold
  • The stock market is challenging new highs.  When equities are…

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Diamond Top In Small Caps

As discussed yesterday in Chat, small caps appear to be forming a diamond which can represent a "top" or merely taking a rest or consolidation before resuming it's trek higher.

Theory is to trade the direction of the break higher or lower.  IWM would work for a bullish breakout and TWM for a bearish break down for those who are unable to short.

fwiw we recently traded TWM on market weakness.  Looks as though it may be setting up again.

For more information on diamonds, I would suggest you browse through Thomas Bulkowski's pages at ThePatternSite.

For a technical analysis trader or investor, you need to…

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Cyber Security Revisited

In December I pointed out cyber security firm Vasco Cyber Security VDSI and scratched my head as it certainly seemed to these eyes seems one that is pumped up in a scramble for yield and then plummet as markets experienced mean reversion after 2000  and 2007.  As we all know from experience, parabolic moves, very often correct violently.  On a 10 year monthly chart, VDSI certainly seemed parabolic.

They target banks and financial services customers.  After JPM, Visa and Mastercard were all hacked the last few years, is there trouble in paradise?  Did this laggard deserve the run up?

Historically it generally traded very thin, under 100k shares per day but suddenly in 2014, volume ramped up and traders were piling in.  Was a laggard being pumped?  "Who doesn't love cyber security?  Let's buy them all." but are all cyber…

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Rig Counts Continue Their Plummet

As the latest Baker Hughes rig count continues to plummet with the collapse in oil pricing some are still trying to catch a bottom.

Total Rigs down to 1633
Down -43 or -2.6% compared to last week
Down -144 or -8.1% year-over-year

Gas seems to be shuttering more than oil and inland waters more than land or offshore.

With many pundits forecasting crude to remain low for a few years (barring disruption in supply) this will be interesting to monitor going forward.

With Schlumberger (SLB) to layoff 9000 and Baker Hughes (BHI) to layoff another 7000, this is only the…

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