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Business Loan Delinquencies At 2008 Levels

Energy defaults have been heavy on my mind as their Bankruptcies are expected to increase greatly in the second half of 2016.  I didn't even touch on farms and other exploding debt. Clearly I'm not alone in this concern.  It's not housing this time; it's much worse.  If rates rise, what will happen? Emphasis in bold mine.  Read on.

This could not have come at a more perfect time, with the Fed once again flip-flopping about raising rates. After appearing to wipe rate hikes off the table earlier this year, the Fed put them back on the table, perhaps as soon as June, according to the Fed minutes. A coterie of Fed heads was paraded in front of…

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We're Shifting Fast To A Cashless Society

We talk about this subject at great length in my neck of the woods and oh boy, is it coming..........fast.  Now let's be honest here and let me ask a few questions.  How much cash are you carrying right now in your wallet? The last time you saw eight year olds selling Girl Scout cookies, did you have to pass them by with no bills in your pocket?  No thin mints for you!  How many purchases do you make per day in cash and how many times do you simply swiping your debit or credit card?  Do your bills come in the mail and get paid via the same method, or are they paid on the internet? 

Love it or hate it, cash is playing an increasingly less important role in society.

In some ways this is great news for consumers. The rise…

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Admin

Buyers Stay Home; See You Next Fall

(Click image to enlarge)

There's nothing here that even remotely makes me want to make a purchase. These are weekly shots of the main indexes so what do you see?

We rallied up over weeks like crazy madmen, squeezing out weak shorts and even had the heaviest shorted sectors help out with a short covering rally; getting the weekly into 'overbought' levels. We came up right against the long term column trend line resistance, hit overbought levels...........the weekly is rolling over. Another failure. Sorry boys. So much for that.

Certainly day traders and short-term swing traders will make their long plays but who has time for that............and why go against the trend of 'this' market......which is down. That's rhetorical.

  • We know the market is stretched on a…

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We’ll start with the obvious: the number one export for many countries here is crude oil or related petroleum products. Middle Eastern countries made up a significant portion of global oil export revenues during 2015 with shipments valued at $325 billion or 41.3% of global crude oil exports.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iran, and Oman were all among the top 15 exporters of crude oil in 2015. Russia and Kazakhstan, countries on the Central Asian part of the map, were also members of that same group.

Regimes in the region found that there were many other corollary benefits from this economic might. Unrest could be stifled by rising wealth, and these countries would also have more influence than they otherwise would in global affairs. Saudi Arabia is a good example in both cases, though…

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Admin

The computers have won.

Institutional Investor just released its annual list of the top-earning hedge fund managers, and six of the top eight are quants, or managers who rely on computer programs to guide their investing.

The list includes Ken Griffin of Citadel, Jim Simons of Renaissance Technology, and John Overdeck and David Siegel of Two Sigma.

In 2002, by contrast, just two computer-driven investors were included in the ranking, according to Institutional Investor.

The list highlights just how hedge fund investing has changed over the past 15 years.

It is not…

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Admin

Why "Tobins Q" Ratio Should Have You Concerned

After writing “Here’s The Perfect Metaphor For Recent Fed Policy,” I had to pick up a copy of The Dao of Capital. Mark Spitznagel just has a unique way of looking at the markets that really resonates with me.

One thing that really jumped out at me while reading it was Spitznagel’s research regarding Tobin’s Q, (though he calls it, “The Misesian Stationarity Index”). It struck me for two reasons. First, I haven’t seen much research like this elsewhere and second, the opinions I have seen regarding it are all of a dismissive nature.

Just Google “Tobin’s Q” and you’ll find all sorts of pieces proclaiming, ‘Don’t worry about Tobin’s Q,’…

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Admin

Bankruptcy Mayhem In The Oil Patch

And the second half of the year is touted to be even worse. What stress is this placing on banks which hold their debt???. Oye!

Most investors are aware that there is significant carnage in the oil patch. Low energy prices caught overleveraged companies off guard, and it’s forced many of these companies to seek protection from their creditors through bankruptcy.

However, the pace of new bankruptcies is accelerating fast, and now bigger companies are being affected. This week’s chart shows that the 11 new bankruptcies in April 2016 carry a substantial debt load of nearly $15 billion – most of which is unsecured.

A quick look at the data, which we pulled…

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Admin

Investors, advertisers, and business leaders around the world are still trying to understand millennials, the generational group that will shape commerce for the foreseeable future. In the past, that’s why we’ve looked at millennial investing and banking preferences, their favorite brands, and even what real estate professionals need to understand about the generation.

Today’s infographic from Adweek is of particular interest, because it focuses on a very particular subset of millennials. The data in the graphic is from a survey of nearly 500 nominees for…

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Admin

Is Your Start Up Idea Already Taken?

There’s an ongoing joke in the startup world about how aspiring founders pitch their new ventures. Every startup idea is reduced to an “Uber for _____” or a “Tinder for _______”, where some niche untapped market is inserted in the blank space.

Much to the chagrin of many venture capitalists, this formulaic phraseology is so pervasive that it actually may hinder the creation of any actual original ideas. That’s because entrepreneurs are expected to be able to communicate their brilliant startup idea in just a few words, and it’s easier to go this route than to try and explain something complex and unique.

That said, if you do want to venture down this path, there are a few semi-successful companies on the following list. You may have even heard of some of them, such as Dollar Beard Club, TaskRabbit, or The League.

There’s also a few available slots, if you don’t mind running with an idea like the “Tinder for Boats” or the “Airbnb for Pizza”.…

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