What We're Reading

Opinion (169)

Admin

Ever want to reach through the television screen and punch someone?  To see ANY commentator spew fairy dust and tall tales with a straight face without telling the entire picture just makes my blood boil.  Here's a portion of this discussion - full video located below

"The excess amount of young adults living at home will unwind alongside a stronger macroeconmic environment and income growth; and the inordinate amount of married couples that are residing in apartment will transition into single-family homes"
Liesman continues:  It has been wrong but I still believe. 
Seriously?  Sure - in a normal recovery!
Steve while you're…

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Admin

This Day In 1999

1999: Priceline.com, ($PCLN) which had gone public at $16 a share exactly one month earlier, closes the day at $162.375 -- giving the tiny Internet images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSrYCyjGknSHKYE7WcTMxtO96ddK9OXWQdxonaCyea5d3pGQR3KAQcompany a one-month return of 914.8% and a total market value of $23 billion. It's probably the fastest and stupidest stock run-up yet recorded. But it's all downhill from here, as Priceline.com ends up losing 99% of its value by the end of 2000.

Fast forward 15 years and everyone books airfares and hotels online.  Everyone.  PCLN closing price yesterday was $1154.84 after reaching an all time high of $1378.96.  Oh to have bought that dip!

Was TWTR the tech top in the recent bull market?  Will we reach a new high and wait for Alibaba?  Are we in a Fed-induced bubble or as Einhorn states, only in select areas?  What…

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Admin

Taxing The Sun. A Rigged Game

1290580?profile=originalSolar energy is still in it's infancy as an alternative energy fuel but let the consumers find a way to save a few bucks?  No way says Oklahoma state legislature.  A bill to allow a TAX surcharge for anyone using the sun in addition to their current utility, passed the Senate last month and now heads to Gov. Mary Fallin for her approval.  This "tax" however, isn't going to the state or federal coffers.  Noooo.  It's going to the existing utility company to "offset existing infrastructure costs"

Wait.  What?  Sounds like I'll be propping up their stock price instead.

Seriously?  Tax the Sun?!  Heaven forbid the big oil barons (Koch brothers) don't…

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Admin

Reasons the market looks ready to pull back May-July:

  1. Treasuries have a relentless bid recently, and as I have discussed recently there was major accumulation of 80,000 Treasury (TLT) July $113 calls. Although this is just one large position, action in the TLT has tended to be right, and can see my call from 2013 to short the TLT in the 120's before it crashed to below 105.
  2. Sector flows showing a flight to safety. The consumer staple names and large caps are starting to outperform, a risk-off market, and options action dictating the same with most of the sizable call buying occurring in boring large cap names like McDonald's, Wal-Mart, Pepsi, along with Energy.
  3. Seasonality - The market tends to struggle in the May-July period, and although I do not have the numbers on me, @RyanDetrick is always posting great data, and also aligns with the Presidential cycle.
  4. Price-Action in Momentum - I am watching a premiere growth name like Under Armour…

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Admin

The Capital Flight No One Is Talking About

With recent market weakness, I'm amazed that supposedly factual, informative and unbiased (cough cough) news television isn't pondering the markets recent weakness being at all tied to FACTA. 

The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act ("FATCA"), enacted in 2010, imposes a variety of requirements on foreign banks however foreign banks that do not report such information may be subject to a 30% withholding tax on payments they receive from U.S. sources. In order to avoid this withholding, beginning July 1, 2014, certain foreign banks will be required to report information to the IRS about U.S. account holders with accounts of $50,000 or more.

Let that sink in a moment.  That's HUUUGE money we're talking about.1290593?profile=original

Beginning July 1st, there will be…

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Admin
High cost of tuition and college loans ties with overall lack of money or low wages as the top concern of those aged 30 to 49. Housing costs also emerge as a relatively bigger concern for younger adults (14%)

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Admin

What The 1% Don't Want You To Know

Hello Koch brothers, they're talking about you. It's no longer Gordon Gecko. Now it's Gordon Gecko's kids who inherited that wealth. Dynastic fortunes tend to take an ever-growing share of national wealth. You have a situation (now) where dynasties come increasingly more dominant of the top of the economic spectrum

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Admin

Matters In Hand; Literally

1290553?profile=originalAll the greats seem taken too soon.  Growing up in Chicago, Pulitzer Prize winning Mike Royko was a household name during his 30 year career writing for the Chicago Sun Times and Chicago Tribune.  He and Bob Green were daily fare as we rode the train downtown with their unique, engaging, almost addictive writing style.  I have no idea how I missed this gem but ladies if you haven't taken self defense classes, never fear.  From one of my favorite writers - here goes; enjoy!

We’ve had the year of the woman and it is still going on, with females being elected to high office and named to the Cabinet posts, and the power of Hillary Rodham Clinton.

But what about Curtescine Lloyd? You never heard of her? Well, she is my choice as one of the most amazing and heroic women of recent years. Ms. Lloyd is a…

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Admin

Damn It Feels Good

1290533?profile=RESIZE_320x320It feels good to actually be making money on the short side for once and not struggling.  Yes, leadership has evaporated with utilities being the only real strength right now with head-and-shoulders tops and double tops as far as the eye can see.  Transports, financials and even oil/gas is seeing profit taking at this juncture.  The Nasdaq has lost it's 100d SMA which was historically great support.  Remain hedged; there will be more downside.  Whether we bounce a bit first (back and fill) to bring in more sellers is an unanswered question but don't buy the dip.............not yet.

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Admin

China's Hard Landing Ahead?

1290547?profile=RESIZE_480x480

I drink my tea on this cold and rainy day and my first thought, as I looked at this chart, that screamed in my brain was "the debt the debt!  omg what are they thinking?"

History suggests that China’s Minsky Moment is approaching quickly, since corporate debt has topped 150% and total debt is over 210%. Investors around the world should prepare for the inevitable demand shocks and falloff in global growth … regardless of the specific outcome. The Chinese government may have the assets to backstop a truly horrific crisis and maintain slow growth in the 2-3% range, but history suggests that China could land very hard.

Over the last fifty years, every investment boom coupled with excessive credit growth has ended in a hard…

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Admin

Historic SPX Supports - And Past Crashes

This weekend I focused on the LARGER, long-term picture of the stock market to make it overall easier for my brain to comprehend. 

  1. Merely when "what" moving average crossed what moving average (on a monthly, not daily or weekly chart) would be a decent indicator of trend?   I wasn't going for exact science here but more a common sense approach when it comes to the long haul.  Just "when" should I bail and sit on my hands with my IRA?  *This" unfortuantey is a topic for another conversation.
  2. The BIGGER question was at what point do I really want to jump back in and "buy on the cheap"?  

I should explain that I trade based on 80% technicals (fibonacci combined with chart patterns) and only about 20% fundamentals but my trading style is to buy at a…

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Admin

Corporations have had no choice but to learn quickly that, like it or not, support on the the issue of same-sex marriage has been steadily (and rapidly) gaining steam across the nation faster than the interracial debate of past and that *not* supporting it publicly creates quite a the backlash.  Just ask Chick-fi-a and Prop 8 donor, now Mozilla ex-CEO Brendan Eich.

Maybe the smart decision for CEO's would be to remember just "who" is their target customer and who are they going to offend with your (CEO) personal view?  Do they truly match those of your company's core beliefs and Corporate code on diversity?

Consider…

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Admin

Weekend Reads

1290501?profile=RESIZE_320x320

  • 200 million social security numbers breached @ Experian.  US Attorney General to launch probe. (nothing is safe if a credit bureau is hacked)
  • The DoJ confirms the FBI is investigating high frequency trading (HFT).  With the way broker/dealers (AMTD, ETFC, SCHW) were slapped heavily last week, it looks like this time it's serious.
  • The FBI is asking the public (traders and stock exchange workers) to…

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • Semiconductors are finally seeing some heavy volume this morning in $SMH.
  • David Letterman (67) announced his retirement in 2015 as he has struggled in 3rd place with the much coveted 18-49 age group behind front runner Jimmy Fallon and Jimmy Kimmel.  Fallon has built himself a comfortable lead and maybe Letterman saw the writing on the wall.  I'd look to buy $CBS stock at lower valuations with eager anticipation of just "who" will be his replacement.  This would be an excellent opportunity for CBS to "update" their boring image (my opinion strictly).  Come on CBS - something with zombies please.  *lol*  

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Admin

The $KING Top

1290495?profile=RESIZE_320x320Merely a thought but could the IPO of gamer $KING have been the top for the much heralded Nasdaq?  After $FB $TWTR $ZNGA and now $KING, maybe the market held out just long enough for the $KING IPO before ringing the register.  Maybe the market has decided enough is enough when Farm Heroes pulls a $20/share price and a $6 billion market cap.   Just sayin'.  It's not a "thing".  They don't produce a product.  It's.......a.......website.  

Many in the twittersphere have already commented that this strangely feels like the 2000 top and when growth names like $AMZN and $NFLX can't get any loving, maybe they're right.  Maybe the $KING IPO was the top.  If so, they'll be doomed to the OTC graveyard faster than Jimmy Johns can deliver your lunchtime…

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Admin

Daily Reads

  • Schwab says HFT is a "Cancer" that must be addressed.  "The primary principle behind our markets has always la-fi-obamacare-deadline-20140328-g?width=437 been that no one should carry an unfair advantage. That simple but fundamental principle is being broken." When big players such as Schwab begin to speak out, one must wonder if this will gain attention now.
  • GT sold some AMZN 360/365 bear call spreads.  Still feel that's a HST
  • Citibank $C reports$400M in fraudulent loans out of their Mexico…

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Admin

Is The Stock Market Rigged?

Certainly HFT (high frequency trading) takes advantage of minute price discrepancies and can fire off trades faster than your head can spin but is it "rigged"?  Is it illegal? Clearly big funds have an advantage over Joe the Plumber trying to trade his own portfolio.  They, after all, can afford all the bells and whistles, the fancy (more expensive) indicators, gain insider insight and if nothing else, insider information however can you say that's illegal or "rigged"?  Maybe it's more their presence causes concerns over stock market integrity with flash crashes occurring (it seems) on a continual basis now. 

We here at StockBuz strive to trade our ports, whether dollar cost averaging or full trades and do a darn good job at it so collaboration works.  Whether members feel "rigged" is the proper term to use is anyone's guess but right or wrong..............it certainly sells…

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Admin

Minimum Wage by State

1290474?profile=RESIZE_480x480For all the political yammering about raising the Federal minimum wage, it would seem that almost 1/2 of the country is already above the Federal level with Connecticut being the first to jump to $10.10 per hour just yesterday.

For all the fear mongering that raising the minimum wage would lead to job loss, the results don't match the scary bedtime story being spread.  To be honest, who really over staffs anyway (unless it's the holidays)?  In my opinion, businesses hire what employees they need to service their customer flow and keep down their bottom line but don't take my word for it. 

Examine …

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