What We're Reading

While the continual question remains, why are bonds holding up?  Why isn't that money flowing into equities?  We highly recommend recommend this piece from Variant Perceptions.  These gusy have nailed it over and over again in the past and maybe, just maybe big investors are embracing something that the little guy doesn't wish to accept.  That profit margins in our "new recovery" are unsustainable.  We may crawl higher, but they wouldn't bet the bank it will last long.  That's great!  I'd prefer reverting to the mean and loading up on names..........at lower levels.  Enjoy-

Profit margins in the US have hit modern-day record levels, and this has been used to help justify high equity valuations. Consensus estimates are for profit margins to remain steady, or even increase from current levels. We disagree for ironclad economic and accounting realities, and think margins will fall, taking equities down too.

Profit margins have, at least until now, exhibited mean-reversion like behaviour. Th

And Gulf War = 294

Have a safe and happy Memorial Day with your family and friends but do not forget to thank Veterans everywhere for their Service to this country, both here and abroad.

For member Al.  We never get out dude.  We just move on to longer time frames, get subs, do videos, go on a book on tour.....................LOL

Ouch that hurts.  Luckily the Fed doesn't include food in their inflation data.  (yes, sarcasm) Seriously though in a day and age where companies can "afford" enormous CEO salary hikes, share repurchases and buybacks, it behooves me they continue to stomp their feet stating they cannot afford a minimum wage hike. 

Almost half of the states in the U.S. are already paying more than the federal minimum wage and those states are surviving just fine.  San Jose and Washington have seen expansion in small business and increased revenue with $10 minimum wages.  The propaganda has become ridiculous folks.  Just my .02

Presented without commentary.

On the heels of the announcement AT&T was in the talks to acquire DTV, David Faber on CNBC mentioned he believed we will see a great deal more M&A going forward; that this is the perfect environment for it. Kos agrees. One way to be able to demand a higher price is to remove (absorb) the competition and shrink the space. Case in point; look at airlines.

Deregulation passed in 1978 created not only a surge in small, value brand names such as Southwest and AirTran. These low-cost names truly began to put pressure on larger airlines. Remember airfare wars? The winner was you and me so what's a larger airline to do to counteract these price ware? How can you demand a higher price? Absorb your competition.

This graphic shows how even back in 2010, just how many were merged with their larger counterparts. (click image to enlarge)

Sadly the loser will be the consumer as M&A means consolidation and layoffs. Wave goodbye to competitive consumer pricing.

The winner - stockholders.

Recently we’v

This one's intriguing not only for the possible daily head-and-shoulders top (gap fill is the obvious target) but look at it's monthly chart.  I believe U.S. growth has been "baked in" with a wealth of competition and increasing pressures in the "healthy drink" area.  In my opinion, they'll have to become more dependent on overseas growth to expand revenue and margins.  Overseas growth in a time of austerity throughout the globe.  It won't be simple.  There are definite divergences developing on the weekly and daily time frames and I seriously would not be surprised if this turns into a longer-term short.  Sure, (*if it works) I'd take a partial on breakdown and another at gap fill but I'd leave the balance with a alert to cover above $82.30 and see what happens.  If it doesn't work - risk is defined.  That or buy LEAP puts and sit back.  What goes up in parabolic fashion, does usually come down and revert to the mean.

Presenting this without commentary Well, ok I have to say something however it's on on Dan's presentation  *Grrrr*. Long time members are fully aware of my opinion on housing and GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I simply do not see a replacement (where you and I will be saddled with the RISK and LOSSES on any future defaults, I might add) will be any better. Fix what's broken and don't put the risk on the taxpayer. Of course in an Oligarchy, does our opinion matter?

We think BMW have positioned themselves as tech leaders to out-rival premium peers such as Tesla, and investors will increasingly be willing to credit this leadership with higher multiples.”

Tesla Motors Inc showed the world that there is demand for a high quality, low energy vehicle, and now it has to face the consequences of its actions. The San Francisco-based company said its mass market car Gen III will require a third production line, and deliveries are expected to start in 2017. Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) said the Gen III car will have a base price of $35,000, but total ASP including options would run to $45,000-$50,000.  (just thinking out loud: could it be investors don't care for a discounted car price?  When you go from luxury to discount retailer, what's the reaction?  Add to the the negative cash flow from due to the cost of the third plant)

BMW is building something different from what Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) is offering, and the changes its making to the manufactur

Numerous articles have noted a sharp rise in the price of renting an apartment or house across the U.S.  Many have also argued that the rise in rents disproportionately affects lower and middle class renters.

I know in my own situation, my rent increased 9% in 2013 and 10% in 2014.  Did our incomes increase by as much?  I wish.

Houseofdebt.org decided to take look by examining the great data available on rents from Zillow.

The chart shows general inflation (measured with PCE headline inflation) versus the increase in rents. Both series are indexed to be 100 as of November 2010 (the first month the Zillow data are available).

The pattern is undeniable: rents are rising much more rapidly than other consumer prices.

The Fed may be emphatic that we're not experiencing inflation but when it comes to housing, there's no denying the facts.  Gas at the pump has doubled since 2008 (isn't it convenient they exclude food and energy), food prices have crept higher but portions and package size hav

So you're driving to work and "this" pulls up next to you.  Texas - they can hide anything in the desert.  Makes me wonder if I glow in the dark. *lol*  

Digging deeper into today's better-than-expected non-farm payroll, one sees (again) that low-wage job creation comprises the majority of the gains.  Once again it seems the middle class is being left out leaving only the lower and upper class job creation.  When comparing "this" recovery to those of the past, I would believe one would have to locate one where the largest population is left out of the recovery.  Can the "rich" alone sustain expansion and growth?  Obviously these low wage workers will not be moving out of their parents home any time soon.  Certainly higher education would assist in their move up the ladder however what does that bode for the already explosive rate of education loans (and those in default).  The Fed has become one large hedge fund, propping up the market.  Is that sustainable? 

I've said it before and I'll say it again.  If you want growth, the minimum wage must increase. Cities which have done so have NOT seen the devastating drop in new business or job

Ever want to reach through the television screen and punch someone?  To see ANY commentator spew fairy dust and tall tales with a straight face without telling the entire picture just makes my blood boil.  Here's a portion of this discussion - full video located below

"The excess amount of young adults living at home will unwind alongside a stronger macroeconmic environment and income growth; and the inordinate amount of married couples that are residing in apartment will transition into single-family homes"

• Where's the "stronger macroeconomic environment"?  The GOP is doing everything they can to stop a minimum wage increase.  Steve, perhaps you should write your Congressman.
• Su

1999: Priceline.com, ($PCLN) which had gone public at $16 a share exactly one month earlier, closes the day at $162.375 -- giving the tiny Internet company a one-month return of 914.8% and a total market value of $23 billion. It's probably the fastest and stupidest stock run-up yet recorded. But it's all downhill from here, as Priceline.com ends up losing 99% of its value by the end of 2000.

Fast forward 15 years and everyone books airfares and hotels online.  Everyone.  PCLN closing price yesterday was $1154.84 after reaching an all time high of $1378.96.  Oh to have bought that dip!

Was TWTR the tech top in the recent bull market?  Will we reach a new high and wait for Alibaba?  Are we in a Fed-induced bubble or as Einhorn states, only in select areas?  What are your thoughts?

Data courtesy of JasonZweig

Solar energy is still in it's infancy as an alternative energy fuel but let the consumers find a way to save a few bucks?  No way says Oklahoma state legislature.  A bill to allow a TAX surcharge for anyone using the sun in addition to their current utility, passed the Senate last month and now heads to Gov. Mary Fallin for her approval.  This "tax" however, isn't going to the state or federal coffers.  Noooo.  It's going to the existing utility company to "offset existing infrastructure costs"

Wait.  What?  Sounds like I'll be propping up their stock price instead.

Seriously?  Tax the Sun?!  Heaven forbid the big oil barons (Koch brothers) don't find a way to deter it's usage.  Just because Oklahomans were too asleep at the wheel busy to look the other way while their legislators sold them out, don't think for one moment that other states won't follow. 

Whatever happened to supply and demand?  Whatever happened to free markets?  Because a company does not adapt to new technology, s

Reasons the market looks ready to pull back May-July:

1. Treasuries have a relentless bid recently, and as I have discussed recently there was major accumulation of 80,000 Treasury (TLT) July $113 calls. Although this is just one large position, action in the TLT has tended to be right, and can see my call from 2013 to short the TLT in the 120's before it crashed to below 105.
2. Sector flows showing a flight to safety. The consumer staple names and large caps are starting to outperform, a risk-off market, and options action dictating the same with most of the sizable call buying occurring in boring large cap names like McDonald's, Wal-Mart, Pepsi, along with Energy.
3. Seasonality - The market tends to struggle in the May-July period, and although I do not have the numbers on me, @RyanDetrick is always posting great data, and also aligns with the Presidential cycle.
4. Price-Action in Momentum - I am watching a premiere growth name like Under Armour (UA) post a fantastic quarter and trade down 1

With recent market weakness, I'm amazed that supposedly factual, informative and unbiased (cough cough) news television isn't pondering the markets recent weakness being at all tied to FACTA. 

The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act ("FATCA"), enacted in 2010, imposes a variety of requirements on foreign banks however foreign banks that do not report such information may be subject to a 30% withholding tax on payments they receive from U.S. sources. In order to avoid this withholding, beginning July 1, 2014, certain foreign banks will be required to report information to the IRS about U.S. account holders with accounts of $50,000 or more.

Let that sink in a moment.  That's HUUUGE money we're talking about.

Beginning July 1st, there will be penalties for non-reporting so if you were big business with large corporate cash storage, or even a gas pipeline worker located in Saudi Arabia, would you shift your investments?  Why not?  The market's at all time new highs.  Better to do it now.

Money continues to flow into bonds as they breakout and overseas markets area a sea of red.  Selling begets selling.  Stay hedged or stay out.  S&P currently trading below it's 50d. 

Overseas market image courtesy of Ritholtz