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Predicting The Feds Interest Rate Forecast

This is one of the stranger things we've seen recently.

The research team at the San Francisco Fed earlier this week published a letter analyzing one startup's analysis of Fed communications.

Economist Fernanda Nechio and researcher Rebecca Regan looked at data from Prattle, a textual analysis specialist, as part of an examination of the Fed's communication strategy following the financial crisis.

The short of it is that Prattle was accurately able to predict what the Fed's infamous "dot plot" would look like upon its next release.

Since 2012, the Fed has released a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) — which contains economic…

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Admin

Chart Palooza

I'm continually saving charts and data points which I find interesting but generally don't post enough to share the data.  That being said, I thought "wth" and decided to share some of my most recent.  Perhaps you can find a few of interest or maybe you can translate one into a trade.  It certainly can't hurt.  Your comments would be of interest and will be answered.  Happy trading.

Online shoppers by income group.  It certainly seems Amazon benefits by middle income buyers.  Possibly they just don't have the 'time' to shop in a store, working 60+ hours a week and balancing soccer games, football, cheerleading practice, dinner, laundry, etc.

Jet[dot]com is now selling some items at a loss to gain marketshare from Amazon…

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Admin

Diamond Top In Small Caps

As discussed yesterday in Chat, small caps appear to be forming a diamond which can represent a "top" or merely taking a rest or consolidation before resuming it's trek higher.

Theory is to trade the direction of the break higher or lower.  IWM would work for a bullish breakout and TWM for a bearish break down for those who are unable to short.

fwiw we recently traded TWM on market weakness.  Looks as though it may be setting up again.

For more information on diamonds, I would suggest you browse through Thomas Bulkowski's pages at ThePatternSite.

For a technical analysis trader or investor, you need to be…

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Admin

Ribbon Study And $SPX Expansion

A Ribbon Study consists of 8 or more Simple Moving Average plots having different lengths thus forming a "ribbon". The lengths of those averages are in an arithmetic progression relation: the increment of the progression is defined by the initial and the final Moving Average lengths.

The way I view a moving average, especially a large one, is that is the average price of stockholders who have held since "that" point in time.  So if you're looking at a 50d, it's the average price of shareholders who purchased in the last 50 days.  If it's a MONTHLY moving average............NOW you're talking funds who have skin in the game and HAVE had skin in the game for months or years.  I want to be one of them if I'm a long/hold investor.  I want to "buy" when they buy.

I've always felt, that from a long/holding investing point of view, this study can also be an interesting way to view a coming expansion, after a long market consolidation.  View these…

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Admin

With the recent news that a Russian hacker ring has amassed some 1.2 billion username and password combinations, it's a good time to review ways to protect yourself online.

The hacking misdeeds were described in a New York Times story based on the findings of Hold Security, a Milwaukee firm that has a history of uncovering online security breaches.

Hold Security told the Times that the data was pilfered from some 420,000 websites and is "the largest known collection of stolen Internet credentials." Hold's researchers did not identify the origins of the data or name the victim websites, citing nondisclosure agreements. The company also said it didn't want to name companies whose websites are still vulnerable to hacking, according to the Times report.

If there's reason to believe your information might have been compromised, change your passwords…

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Admin

4th Of July Week

With the holiday up us, I see volume drying up which overall is bullish (no heavy volume selling).  Non-farm payrolls are the main focus however I expect any surprise to find buyers (algos) on any dip. There seems no marco headline news to alter this at this juncture.

We will be taking a brief holiday to return on the 7th however check in for our Charts section as you never know what will be uploaded during this down time. 

We haven't had a double digit correction in 33 months.  How much longer can it last is anyone's guess.  I remain bullish but cautious.

Stock up your coolers, your propane tank or charcoal and enjoy the long weekend.

U.S. markets will close early Thursday and remain closed on Friday the 4th. …

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Admin

Where The Jobs Are 5 Years Into The Recovery

Five years since the end of the Great Recession, the economy has finally regained the nine million jobs it lost. But not all industries recovered equally.  This awesome interactive from the NYTimes demonstrates what's moving and what is not along with over 200 charts drilling it down in simple terms.  Tell your high school and college attendees.  Are they in these growth areas?   Click chart to make the jump to the interactive.

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Admin

The Market Will Always Come Back? Do They?

Your hear the reassuring echos all of the time.  "Don't worry! The market will always come back."  But do they?  What about dividend reinvesting and adjusted for inflation?  Given the data, one can easily see why smart money continues to invest in bonds, annuities, universal life, etc.  Merely my .02 cents but remember, charts don't lie - people do.

Consider these two overlays — one with the nominal price, excluding dividends, and the other with the price adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (which I usually just refer to as the CPI). The charts below have been updated through today's close.

The Big Three
The Big…

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Admin

Bono joining the board of Fender and rumors that Dr. Dre will join the board at $AAPL. What do academics say about share prices and out performance when celebs take a seat at the board room table?  Increased exposure, higher consumer interest, improved sales.........or just a temporary blip on the chart?

Imagine the fight over Steven McQueen if he were alive today.  Ever car manufacturer, including TSLA, would go wild. 

Courtesy of…

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Admin

David Einhorn’s Comments at the Greenlight Re (GLRE) Investor Day on May 20th 2014

  • Bernanke was predictable, but the new chairwoman is less predictable.
  • It has been 5 yrs into the recovery. Corporate profits have increased a lot and continue to grow. Current earnings expectations are high at a double-digit growth rate. Q1 numbers are showing the economy growing at  ~1%.
  • The fund is fully invested at 114% long and 66% short. It has increased its net long book from 35 to 50%.
  • Largest longs are Alpha Bank, Apple, gold, Marvel, Micron, and Oil States International.
  • Longs are cash-rich tech companies and businesses benefiting from structural changes. Shorts include secular decliners, momentum stocks, and iron ore related companies. Macro…

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Admin

When stock and bond markets took a dive in late January, hedge-fund manager David Ford kept his cool.

Ford watched emerging markets melt down and read warnings that the U.S. economy could crater too. As prices dropped, he overcame the impulse to flee with the rest of the herd and, instead, bought more corporate bonds, Bloomberg Pursuits will report in its Summer 2014 issue.

After two decades as a trader, Ford credits his serenity to experience -- and to the 20 minutes he spends in his pajamas each morning repeating a meaningless mantra bestowed on him by a teacher of Transcendental Meditation two years ago.

“I react to volatile markets much more calmly now,” Ford, 48, says. “I have more patience.”

He…

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Admin

NFLX To Face More Competition

In the area of streaming video and television, Mode Media (previously Glam) had quietly filed for IPO in 2013 and postponed it's IPO indefinitely in 2011.  I'm sure board member Mark Andreessen would love to push it forward but is this the right time with markets at all time new highs? 

Glam Media changed its name to Mode Media at its NewFronts event today in New York. Glam chief Samir Arora told Adweek prior to the presentation that the new moniker reflects a commitment to entertainment as well as rebranding its properties beyond its core…

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Admin

Test Yourself. Are You A Psychopath?

Everyone knows at least one, if you ask my humble opinion.  I have a few prior salesmen and Managers I'm confident would score highly on this subject and I have no doubt that there are far more psychopaths out there than most realize exist.  I'm certain many more in certain career fields than others.  For example there's probably far more in finance than there are in nursing however that's purely my opinion.

Psychopathy is a condition that causes people to display anti-social behaviour, lack of empathy and remorse, and fearless dominance. Find out…

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Admin

Funday Monday Reads May 19th

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Admin

Sunny Saturday Reads May 10th

And what are we doing at our computers. It's beautiful outside - go enjoy the day........and don't forget to pick up somethin g for Mothers Day tomorrow!

  • More pain ahead for small caps, saysCredit Suisse.  Since the mid 1990′s the average and median pullbacks in the Russell 2000 have been 21% and 14%.
  • Some measures of corporate credit spreads have reached their tightest levels in the past 23 years. Does this mean that optimism has peaked and it's time to sell? Not necessarily says Califia Beach…

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