I'd be trading this bad boy to the long side. In this seven year weekly chart, not only has it broken my three trend line rule, there was positive MACD convergence (as shorts began to massively cover) and the 200week SMA which was prior resistance, has now become support.
It certainly appears that the "low" in low rates was in in 2013.
I should also note that the monthly chart is deeply oversold. At some point, you simply run out of sellers.
I've long said that when in mortgage banking, we watched the 10yr. each week for direction of rates and we completely ignored the Fed raising or lowering rates. They were a laggard; the 10yr was already there.
Yep. If this were a stock, I'd be trading it long, buying at support or out of the short side completely. Maybe not expecting anything spectacular in terms of upside but ROC would indicate no heavy selling; short covering more than anything else.
I believe we've entered the phase in our bull market where "good news" is now bad news to the market; as a reinforcement that QE will no longer be extended and the market has to sink or swim without their safety "floaties". Major gains have been made in the last five years. Take profits, do not trade unless you're nimble and wait for some major support to come in.
The dollar strength, with Russian sanctions and Scottish election (to determine if they leave the UK) approaching next week, should buoy it for the time being. September is the end of fiscal year for most funds. Again they'll be taking SPX (and bond) profits and shifting allocations.
I see no reason to be a super hero. Some names may pop and that's great but why risk it? We will see support at some point. Just how low we go is anyone's guess. No one has that answer. I've taken profits in many names and will sit back and wait.............for good, low risk entries.