What We're Reading

Investors may wade into unknown territory next month as the Federal Reserve readies the first rate hike in nearly a decade amid a corporate earnings recession.

S&P 500 earnings are on track to close their first reporting season of negative growth since the Great Recession and estimates call for sub-zero growth in the current quarter as well.

Even if the trend reverses next year, as expected, a Fed rate hike in December could mark an unprecedented conflict between a tightening cycle starting at the same time as earnings fall into recession.

"We can't think of any instances when the Fed was hiking during an (earnings) recession," said Joseph Zidle, portfolio strategist at Richard Bernstein Advisors in New York.

"In the last six months one can point at a lot of different things. But if you think about fundamentals, falling corporate profits and the threat of rising rates" are behind the market stalling, Zidle said.

With more than 90 percent of S&P 500 components having reported, S&P 500 e

According to The Economist, in May 19th official statisticians announced that Britain entered deflation in April, with consumer prices standing 0.1% lower than a year earlier. It is first time since 1960 that annual inflation has been negative. Back then, prices pepped up again quickly. The Bank of England expects a similar rebound this time, on the basis that the recent fall in the price of food and fuel will be a one-off. But for inflation to return to the bank’s 2% target, sustained growth in wages is necessary. That means the bank is keeping a close eye on inflation expectations; if Britons start accepting lower pay rises on account of stagnant prices, deflation could persist.

Here in the U.S. fears of deflation still linger with strength in the U.S. Dollar continuing to quash any strong moves in commodities.  We've discussed it a few times before here and here. Tomorrow's GDP and PMI will be watched closely.  At least it won't be a boring Friday morning.

Oil production in North America is booming, crude oil today hitting new 4-year lows, and it is now beginning to have a huge impact on global hydrocarbon markets. In fact, some believe that the U.S. will eventually overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s biggest producer of the key commodity, with some calling for the surge to happen by the end of the decade and OPEC is left if in a precarious situation.  If they cut production, prices may rise but they also risk losing customers to another provider (the U.S. or Russia).  If they do not cut production, prices will likely continue to fall due to excess capacity worldwide. 

This push towards energy self-sufficiency is largely thanks to the combination of fracking and oil shale, as previously unobtainable supplies are now being unlocked with relative ease. The amounts are so impressive that the International Energy Agency last year declared the production surge as a ‘supply shock’ that is causing ‘ripple effects through all aspect

Is that what the 10yr is signalling?  The EU doesn't have the mechanism to launch quantitative easing.  Raising rates would pressure their recovery.  Has Draghi painted himself into a corner? 

The U.S. is having to accept the "taper" while slow growth persists.  Maybe it's time to get back to reality and fundamentals.  Actually that works for me because I'd much rather buy stocks with S&P500 at the 100week than "here".  Only time will tell but hedging and shorts are (finally) working.

The 10yr is definitely not happy and is trying to bounce off of 2.6 but if that goes.........look out for more pain (for equities).  Seems as though sell in May was a good idea after all.

It's one thing when prices are lowered to spur demand.  It's an entirely different situation when buyers "demand" lower prices and can hold out until they get it.  Potash names such as POT, MOS and IPI saw a 20% haircut in market cap last month even though potash prices themselves had not "plummeted" as forecast.   So which is the tail and which is the dog?  It would appear the stocks definitely were the leading indicator.   This from the WSJ may just be the tip of the iceberg lettuce.

"Indian potash buyers are (now) demanding discounts for the price of the key fertilizer ingredient as the Russian miner that shook up the sector's cartel system last month ramps up production, threatening to send prices tumbling.

The moves will further pressure shares of global potash miners, who have already lost up to 20% of their stock-market value since Uralkali said in late July that it was pulling out of one of two sales partnerships that together control two-thirds of the nearly $22 billion

Seven Varieties of Deflation

By Dr. A. Gary Shilling

Inflation in the U.S. has historically been a wartime phenomenon, including not only shooting wars but also the Cold War and the War on Poverty. That's when the federal government vastly overspends its income on top of a robust private economy—obviously not the case today when government stimulus isn't even offsetting private sector weakness. Deflation reigns in peacetime, and I think it is again, with the end of the Iraq engagement and as the unwinding of Afghanistan expenditures further reduce military spending.

Chronic Deflation

Few agree with my forecast of chronic deflation. They've never seen anything but inflation in their business careers or lifetimes, so they think that's the way God made the world. Few can remember much about the 1930s, the last time deflation reigned. Furthermore, we all tend to have inflation biases. When we pay higher prices, it's because of the inflation devil himself, but lower prices are a result of o