emerging markets (3)

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Cash Flow Out Of Emerging Markets

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Worldwide money flows are of interest to a long term investor and the flight out of emerging markets has been striking.  Weren't emerging markets supposed to where our expansion was to take place?  What now?

According to the IIF, the volatile market conditions have taken a toll on capital flows to emerging markets, with net non-resident portfolio flows in August falling into negative territory for the first time in 2015, according to the Institute of International Finance’s latest EM Portfolio Flows Tracker. Outflows were estimated at $4.5 billion in August compared to inflows of $6.7 billion in July.

“Portfolio flows to emerging markets have retreated sharply in the last few weeks,” said Charles Collyns, chief economist at the IIF. “Emerging market investors have been spooked by rising uncertainty about China, and stress has been exacerbated by a combination of fundamental concerns about EM economic prospects and volatility in global financial markets.”

Emerging market equity flows f

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Countries Hurt By Lower Crude Oil

As the price of oil extends a free fall that began this summer, countries around the world that rely on oil revenues are bracing for an imminent economic and budget hit.  The drop is widening budget gaps in the Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain that rely heavily on oil to pay government services.

With oil and gas production accounting for some 70% of Russia's government spending, Moscow also faces a big shortfall—after budgeting based on $100-a-barrel oil for 2015. Russia's economic growth was already slowing before the plunge in oil prices. Trade sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe—in response to the invasion of the Ukraine—will further crimp growth and government spending.

The impact of budget gaps among big producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, though, will be softened somewhat by large reserves built up during boom years. But a protracted era of cheap oil would force them to undertake serious belt-tightening.

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A.I. Globalization And The Future Of Managers

Economic growth has traditionally been fueled by two things: higher productivity and more workers. But productivity growth has been disappointing in recent years, and, more important, the population is beginning to age: the United Nations predicts that, for the world as a whole, the number of people employed will increase by just 0.03% a year over the next 50 years compared with 1.8% in the past 50.

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