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fed (31)

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Fed To Regulate Insurers?

Moves today in AIG and MET to name a few may be based on speculation whether the Fed will move to regulate some insurers as "systemically important" which was previously discussed in this article on asset managers.  Under Dodd-Frank, the Financial Stability Oversight Council, a newly created super-regulator, can designate “systemically important financial institutions,” or SIFIs, and subject them to rules previously reserved for banks.  Steve Miller, AIG non-executive Chairman shares his view on CNBC.  Full disclosure StockBuz has previously recommended AIG…

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Living on $20 Then And Now

Ouch that hurts .  Luckily the Fed doesn't include food in their inflation data.  (yes, sarcasm) Seriously though in a day and age where companies can "afford" enormous CEO salary hikes, share repurchases and buybacks, it behooves me they continue to stomp their feet stating they cannot afford a minimum wage hike. 

Almost half of the states in the U.S. are already paying more than the federal minimum wage and those states are surviving just fine.  San Jose and Washington have seen expansion in small business and increased revenue with $10 minimum wages.  The propaganda has become ridiculous folks.  Just my…

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TGIF Reads

  • This day in 1896: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is first published. Its 12 initial members are the great industrial giants of the time: American Cotton Oil, American Sugar, American Tobacco, Chicago Gas, Distilling & Cattle Feeding, General Electric, Laclede Gas, National Lead, North American, Tennessee Coal & Iron, U.S. Leather, and U.S. Rubber. The index’s value that day: 40.94.  Source: Phyllis S. Pierce, ed., The Dow Jones Averages 1885-1980 (DowJones Irwin, Homewood, IL, 1982), introduction, not paginated; http://averages.dowjones.com and JasonZweig

  • Very odd the move in treasury yields today on the better than expected NFP number.  Maybe "smart money" is telling us the economy is not as strong…

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Funday Monday Reads

  • EU added 7 rich men and 17 corporations to their list to sanction in Russia. Obama hits them with exports and the banking sector.  Market still not liking the tensions there. 

    Asked in his CNBC interview Wednesday whether Wall Street is right to remain calm over the standoff, Mr. Obama replied: “No.”“I think this time’s different,” he said. “I think they should be concerned…. When you have a situation in which a faction is willing potentially to default on U.S. government obligations then we are in trouble.  (WSJ)

  • Fed whisperer Hilsenrath says it's time to worry…

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Larry Summers On QE And Fed Policy

September is guaranteed to be packed with drama for the markets wall of worry.  As if Syrian tensions weren't scary enough.  Reuters outlines, not only will non-farm payrolls be highly important (will the Fed taper or no based on it) but German elections, Abe's 3rd phase of economic policy and of course, Obama's nomination for the next Fed Chairman.  (yes I'm completely ignoring the debt ceiling as a concern because it's not)

A few months back, it was Janet Yellen everyone felt…

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Under the category of "duh, no shit" comes a report from the St. Louis Fed office admitting what everyone already knew.  Typical households have not recovered from the credit crisis.  In fact, they're only halfway there.  Of course showing the full truth doesn't sell newspapers (or ad space).  The typical Joe who saw his job outsourced after 20 years with a company, 401k drained and whose kid (s) have moved back home because they can't afford to live on their own any long ALSO WHILE and working TWO wonderful $7.50 an hour jobs could've told the Fed that.  Seriously, how much do they pay these guys?  Read more-

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With market participants so concerned over the effects of if/when Bernanke takes his foot off of the QE gas pedal, here comes DB and BusinessInsider to remind us of historical market moves when rates were raised.  Based on monthly historical charts, you will notice a few 10-20% corrections however nothing earth shattering.  The markets found a floor based on true economic demand and continued their uptrend. 

As it stands, JPM believes the Fed will not being to taper until their December meeting unless labor improvements continue as they have the last six months; at which point then they look to the September meeting as the most obvious time…

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As it stands, JPM believes the Fed will not being to taper until their December meeting UNLESS labor improvements continue as they have the last six months; at which point then they look to the September meeting as the most obvious time (after Jackson Hole).

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Beware The Week After June's Options Expiration

Historically the week following June's triple witching options expiration has been "horrendous" according to StockTradersAlmanac.

In fact, in post-election years since 1953, June still ranks poorly and its average loss for DJIA and S&P 500 increases to –1.2% and –0.7% respectively compared to –0.3% and –0.01% in all years. DJIA in particular struggles, advancing in just three post-election year Junes (1977, 1985 and 1997). NASDAQ and Russell 2000 fare best in June, posting modest average gains.

Throw into the mix the concern that the Fed will be discussing possible avenues to ease off of the QE gas pedal at their June and July meetings and you have more reason to possibly see weakness as the Summer doldrums begin. 

The Monday of Triple-Witching Week the Dow has been down ten of the last sixteen years.…

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When Will The Fed Raise Rates?

The following from CalculatedRisk with my notes added as an afterthought:

Short answer: it is very unlikely that the Fed will increase the Fed funds rate this year. There are a series of steps the Fed will most likely take before raising rates1: • First the Fed needs to complete the $600 billion “QE2” large-scale asset purchase program. This is currently scheduled to be completed at the end of June, however, to “promote a smooth transition in markets”, it is possible the Fed will decide to "gradually slow the pace" of the purchases like they did with QE1 (quoted text from QE1 related FOMC statements). If the program is extended and purchases tapered off (but the size remains at $600 billion), this will probably be announced at the conclusion of the two day FOMC meeting in late April and the program will probably then be completed in August. • Next the Fed will end the…

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