Should I buy the dip? Should I blame it on lunar movements or is it another headfake? Will the Bears be punished once more and we head higher as we have in the past? Well for what its worth [which is zilch] I think we're in for a larger correction. Obviously I'm not a Economist or a Hedge Fund Manager [I wish] but I believe there are number of reasons we'll see *sell in May and go away* come to fruition this year.
Over the past week or so, I have asked myself that question several times. Why am I here(at StockBuz)? The recent negativity and personal confrontations were making me doubt that there was an upside to staying a member of StockBuz. But something I couldn't quite put my finger on made me stay the course.
Then several days ago, Runnin' with the Bulls shows up in chat. He has been busy with college courses and hadn't been watching equities or the market in general very much. He posed a question about the selloff in US Steel (X). Within minutes he had an on the spot fundamental and technical analysis of the stock. At stockpickr, if he had asked the same thing, he would have had to wait hours or days for both viewpoints if he had gotten them at all. With Twitter, well, I don't think I need to explain that one any further.
Last night, Papu shows up for awhile. Questions are posed to him reference gold and the Indian(as in India) wedding season. He explains that…
Lazlo Birinyi and his associates recently completed a study of the VIX. Their conclusions were that the VIX is not a very good indicator of future market movements. Instead, it is simply a mirror image of current market conditions. Their conclusions prompted me to look at the VIX over the past twenty years. Truth be told, GT made me do it. LOL He brought the study up in chat and challenged me to back up any argument for or against with real statistics. Always good advice...
First, let me state that I agree with Mr. Birinyi's conclusion. I overlayed a chart of the S & P 500 on a chart of the VIX from 1990 to present. At least on the surface, it even looks like a mirror image. Granted, I do not have the time nor the inclination to replicate his study methods. Anecdotally at least, it looks like he is on to something.
Next, I became curious if the VIX had any other uses outside of options strategies or if there was a VIX trade with a high…
Recently I purchased a small position in MannKind (MNKD) on a pullback, cost basis 10.03 a share. Seemingly went up everyday. Then, it fell off the cliff. A FDA request for additional information and it's interpretation tanked the stock. Down 24% in one day, it has continued to selloff. Currently down nearly 40% from my original buy point and it has no signs of slowing down. While I have no special insight into the workings of the FDA nor the drug, Affrezza, up for approval, I have to say that the market reaction is wrong in my opinion. I will double down if it falls to or below 5.50 a share.
I understand this is a very risky proposition, especially from a technical analysis standpoint. All I can say is I've got a very strong gut feeling that it gets approved with few if any hitches. I'm following my gut this time....
Mining stock recommendations, observations on Dollar/Gold rallies.
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