While running a simple screen for Cheap Growth stocks, I had something unusual happen. There was not a single stock that met the criteria. That's right, zero, zilch, nada. The screen only had three criteria; a PEG ratio of .75 or lower, a debt to equity ratio of .8 or lower, and an expected growth rate of 25% for the next 5 years. Only two possible conclusions can be drawn from this. Conclusion A, growth stocks are way over valued at this time. Conlusion B, analyst estimates for earnings growth are still very bearish, too bearish in fact.
My past experience with this screen leads to me too conclusion B. I started using this screen six months prior to the beginning of the bear market. At that time, there was no shortage of cheap growers. In fact I had to add a market cap component to reduce the number of possible candidates. Since the screen depends heavily on analyst earnings estimates and considering the events that occurred half a year later, I would conclude that…
This has a lot of good information in it. It's in pdf format so you can download it and keep it for future reference..C.pdf
I don't agree with this particular count either, but I think it's worth taking a look at. He certainly could be right...I do think the 1158 target makes sense as a short-term objective, though. http://bit.ly/cFMZ7p
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Added 3/30/10: I have discovered…
Since some of you trade NG and UNG, I thought I'd put some Fibonacci on it and see what it looks like. This is the hourly chart. From the 02/08 high, notice that XA drops to a previous support area. The rally AB retraces .786 of XA. The BC selloff takes out the low of XA and extends 1.618 to today's low. There is also a Fibonacci time target right here that I didn't label. It should rally from here and try to fill that gap. However, what I'm concerned about is that we closed below the Jan 28 low. Momo still down. If a rally attempt to fill the gap fails and today's low is taken out, it will probably extend 2.618 which would take it down near 8.70..
The QQQQ's have held the red Kijun(Trend Line) for three weeks. Last week it managed to close higher after the previous weeks doji and also managed to close above the 20wk ema, a commonly used mav on Ichimoku charts. Next resistance is the light blue Tenkan line around 44.38. It looks constructive at this point although the blue 90wk mav is still ticking lower. What I would like to see next week is a move higher with a weekly close above the high of the previous red candle. I would appreciate any and all feedback.
First let me state, It's not my deliberate intention to make supportive case for the rampantly growing
already, and bursting at the proverbial seams, laced with redundant, inadequate, and antiquated govt jobs,
Super Bureaucracy of today. That to include it becoming any overbearing, oppressive, Orwellian,
and Nanny State Day Care-ish, that's already now! Yet, I am understanding or of the mindset. That eventually technology will shrink the bureaucracy considerably fold. Thus yielding a correction to the parabolic growth rate it has been in and executing now. No parabolic growth is sustainable indefinitely. And the Masses will soon realize that alot can be done with less in today's real/live time interconnected world.
Second, I am going to try and demonstrate throughout, that the exponential advancements in technology made
thus far, will not only allow us to do this, but undeniably require it at some point. That being taking a